10 June 2011
Belarus' economy needs external financing more then ever before. The government resists privatization but it will have to surrender soon, even if the International Monetary Fund decides to extend another loan.
Recently the Belarusian weekly Belorusski Rynok discussed the chances of getting an IMF loan. At least three factors play against it. First, Belarus failed to fulfill a...
01 June 2011
The currency exchange crisis persists in Belarus while the government is looking for ways to tackle it at a minimal political cost. Russia has declined to grant Belarus the much awaited loan of 1 bn. USD.
The last hope is a loan from Stabilizing Fund of the Eurasian Economic Community, where Russia has a decisive voice. And Russia almost literary declared – if you want...
28 May 2011
As the economic crisis deepens, Belarusian authorities have become increasingly worried about possible social unrest. There are good reasons for them to worry. Not only is the country in the midst of the worst economic crisis in its modern history, it also has a record number of political prisoners that has not been witnessed since Soviet times.
Last week three former presidential...
16 May 2011
This week Russia's Finance Minister Kudrin made it clear that Moscow was not interested in bailing out the Belarusian economy with no conditions attached. That stimulated discussions that Russia finally decided to get rid of Alyaksandr Lukashenka. However, these discussions are based the premise that Russia`s intention is regime change.
Certainly Russia has no interest to support...
14 May 2011
Establishing an ever more strict regime in Belarus after December 2010, Lukashenka so far faced no serious resistance. Numerous democratic activists fled abroad, many are incarcerated or awaiting trials, others are nearly paralyzed by police and security agencies surveillance and harassment, as well as fear.
For the first time in two decades the opposition failed to organize a...
14 May 2011
Yesterday the National Bank of Belarus allowed private banks to increase foreign currency exchange rates. Previously, all banks were limited by a very low ceiling. Now officially banks received full freedom to establish the rate. However, various sources suggest that the recommended US exchange rate should not be higher than BYR 4,000. Most of the Belarusian banks now set the buying/selling...