08 January 2016
After several years of slow growth, 2015 became the first year of true recession. GDP fell by 3.9 per cent in January-November; employment declined over the year. The Belarusian rouble depreciated by almost 60 per cent.
Despite significant changes in the economic policy, 2016 will not be different. The official outlook (based on the oil price of $50) predicts zero growth, while the...
30 September 2015
In the last month before the Presidential elections, the Belarusian economy continues to disappoint. Although decline in GDP has slowed, the -3.5 per cent growth has failed to impress. The Belarusian rouble continues to depreciate as oil prices plunge.
The authorities have promised further liberalisation of the economy in the near future....
08 September 2015
The Belarusian economy keeps on contracting: in January-July it decreased by 4 per cent. However, a number of positive trends have arisen: wages and employment are stabilising, along with improvements in current account balances.
The latter might signal an imminent recovery, but that remains questionable. Increased sensitivity to global financial turbulence and the lack of policy...
05 August 2015
According to the official five-year Socio-Economic Development Programme For 2011-2015 the GDP was supposed to increase by 62-68 per cent by the end of 2015. In reality, the growth is likely to hit around 6 per cent. How did the government manage to get it wrong by such a large disparity?
After 25 years of...
29 April 2015
The first quarter of 2015 displayed a number of distressing trends in Belarusian economy.
The adjustment of the exchange rate has not secured the restoration of competitiveness. Furthermore, the government has to resort to conservative policies for mitigating structural weaknesses.
The economy has gone into recession, which was accompanied by lower real wages and...
26 February 2015
Belarus is reeling from the effects of the wobbling oil price and Western-imposed sanctions on Russia.
The economy is now paying for the absence of liberal reforms through a decrease in manufacturing, the depreciation of the national currency and the need for budget cuts. The lack of good economic and political news suggests that the recovery will take a long time.
- 04 February 2015
03 February 2015
30 January 2015
For 2015, any positive growth would be considered a great success for the Belarusian authorities. Apart from external shocks, several structural challenges have emerged.
A spike in inflation, deeper depreciation of the national currency, the distress of the banking industry, and growing unemployment have all become urgent issues that must be addressed.
The government is trying to...
07 January 2015
Belarus's GDP growth managed to strengthen in November. But despite this, many signals about an upcoming downturn have appeared. The Russian economic contagion began to spread to Belarus through trade and informational channels.
The government reacted by introducing a de-facto 30% devaluation that was accomplished in a rather ‘creative’ manner. But this decision seems to...
25 September 2014
Price increases for regulated goods and services, as well as the abolition of price regulations on meat had a stimulating effect on inflation in Belarus.
In the first half of 2014 a gradual reduction of Belarus' foreign currency reserves occurred as a result of significant foreign debt service payments. But over the summer this year external and internal borrowing and foreign...
26 August 2014
The National Bank continues to gradually reduce its refinancing rate. The latest reduction, which occurred in August 2014, may help make receiving financing for legal entities easier.
And yet, despite their best intentions, these steps contribute to the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in the country.
An analysis of the pros and cons have forced the Belarusian authorities...