31 March 2016
On 28 March 2016 the Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation and Development (EFSD) approved the provision of a new loan to Belarus.
In the meantime, the export and real estate market established new numbers of their record fall, questioning the limits of slowdown in Belarus.
In such a situation the government tries to secure state financial support – President...
29 February 2016
On 16 February 2016, President Alexander Lukashenka announced zero tolerance for structural reforms being proposed by the government.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of 2015 state debt has increased by more than half and real wages in dollar equivalent have fallen to a ten year low.
Belarus's government is still trying to find a simple way out of the crisis by releasing new...
08 January 2016
After several years of slow growth, 2015 became the first year of true recession. GDP fell by 3.9 per cent in January-November; employment declined over the year. The Belarusian rouble depreciated by almost 60 per cent.
Despite significant changes in the economic policy, 2016 will not be different. The official outlook (based on the oil price of $50) predicts zero growth, while the...
30 September 2015
In the last month before the Presidential elections, the Belarusian economy continues to disappoint. Although decline in GDP has slowed, the -3.5 per cent growth has failed to impress. The Belarusian rouble continues to depreciate as oil prices plunge.
The authorities have promised further liberalisation of the economy in the near future....
30 June 2015
A labour strike at a major state-owned plant in June suggests that the current economic crisis will present serious political challenges to Belarus. Despite it being an election year, wages and pensions are not growing – a rare occurrence. Yet, it stagnating incomes are not the country's primary problem.
Many state-owned enterprises do not have enough money to even pay...
27 May 2015
According to the press release published by International Monetary Fund on 19 May the possible losses for the Belarusian economy in 2015 will amount 2.3 per cent of the GDP and $2bn of its foreign exchange reserves.
The consequences of the economic crisis in Belarus have multiplied and more problems are on their way.
The intensification of economic relations with China...
29 April 2015
The first quarter of 2015 displayed a number of distressing trends in Belarusian economy.
The adjustment of the exchange rate has not secured the restoration of competitiveness. Furthermore, the government has to resort to conservative policies for mitigating structural weaknesses.
The economy has gone into recession, which was accompanied by lower real wages and...
24 March 2015
In an attempt to fixate and extend the effects of currency devaluation, the Belarusian government and the National Bank have chosen internal devaluation as its leading policy. Internal devaluation means lower incomes and a more prudent fiscal and monetary policy will follow.
But can internal devaluation serve as an alternative to structural reforms in Belarus? And, most importantly, can...
30 January 2015
For 2015, any positive growth would be considered a great success for the Belarusian authorities. Apart from external shocks, several structural challenges have emerged.
A spike in inflation, deeper depreciation of the national currency, the distress of the banking industry, and growing unemployment have all become urgent issues that must be addressed.
The government is trying to...
03 December 2014
Belarus displayed modest but stable growth during past couple of months.
However, future prospects for growth remain uncertain, given the deteriorating economic situation in Russia along with the desire of the authorities to carry out several growth stimulating policies.
Moreover, there are questions with respect to both the exchange rate and interest rate policy that the...
25 September 2014
Price increases for regulated goods and services, as well as the abolition of price regulations on meat had a stimulating effect on inflation in Belarus.
In the first half of 2014 a gradual reduction of Belarus' foreign currency reserves occurred as a result of significant foreign debt service payments. But over the summer this year external and internal borrowing and foreign...
26 August 2014
The National Bank continues to gradually reduce its refinancing rate. The latest reduction, which occurred in August 2014, may help make receiving financing for legal entities easier.
And yet, despite their best intentions, these steps contribute to the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in the country.
An analysis of the pros and cons have forced the Belarusian authorities...