BELARUS DIGEST

It is hard to say who will become Belarusian president after Lukashenka, but it is easy to predict what kind of political system will be left in Belarus. Although there was no massive violence, the authoritarian rule in Belarus has leveled the playing ground of Belarusian politics. Currently it looks more like a desert place with only primitive forms of political life.

Belarusian people are unfamiliar with political pluralism and open debated in public sphere. Most people know nothing about political movements and politicians except for Lukashenka. The parties established after the Soviet Union collapse enjoyed a short period of relative freedom and since late 1990s they do not play the role which parties usually play in democratic societies. A period of prolonged inactivity has weakened their structures, activists, as well as resulted in impoverishment of their professional and political skills.

The recent performance at the BBC’s ‘Hard Talk’ by an expected Belarusian presidential candidate demonstrated that if politicians stay for a while outside the public sphere it brings them no good. Speaking in London studio Mr. Andrei Sannikau stuck to old the motives of Belarusian opposition known from 1990s, which made him sound somehow anachronistic to those who follow events in Belarus.

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Opposition leaders were unable to adopt a procedure for selecting a single presidential contender at their meeting in Minsk at the beginning of July, BelaPAN reported*. According to Uladzimir Kolas, chairman of the Rada (Council) of the Belarusian Intelligentsia (RBI), the process of selecting a single presidential contender had taken too long and might soon be of no use, as there would not be enough time for preparations to ensure an efficient and successful campaign. If the selection of a single candidate continues to be delayed, the RBI may withdraw from this process, Mr. Kolas noted.

Two presidential candidates Alyaksandr Milinkevich and Ales Mikhalevich have refused to be involved in the process.

Ales Mikhalevich was the first opposition candidate to launch his presidential campaign bid at a presentation on January 27, 2010 in Minsk*. The politician said he would rely only on Belarusian resources in his campaign. According to Mikhalevich, his team will comprise representatives of a new generation of the Belarusian society. He regards urban youth as his main support base. Mikhalevich is also the youngest candidate. He just turned 35 this May. (more…)

After June’s gas dispute and Russian enforcing Belarus to join the Customs Union, political tension between Minsk and Moscow persists, taking ever new turns and twists. Belarusian leadership retaliated for the film about Lukashenka shown on Gazprom-controlled NTV by meetings with conspicuous nemesis of Russia – president Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia.

Furthemore, Saakashvili was invited to explain evil nature of Kremlin on Belarusian state TV. Reaction of Russian side was immediate – the same Moscow’s channel showed second film about Lukashenka. At least the first film really reached general audience – something that Polish-based TV channel Belsat did not manage to do since three years despite all efforts and hopes of Lukashenka’s opponents. Ordinary people discussed the NTV film, though quite few watched it by themselves.

It was a hard blow for Belarusian president, because it made clear how susceptible his people are to Russian propaganda. After all, it cannot be seriously deemed as Russian concern for lack of human rights or democracy in Belarus. Of course, there are these problems under Lukashenka’s reign yet Moscow channel, critisizing Minsk for human rights violations and disappearances while silently omitting much grosser abuses in the own land, resembles not so old times of USSR lashing out at USA for American racism.

Weak national identity and nonexistent civic and political consciousness of Belarusians aggravate the situation, while assisting Russian attempts to tame if not to oust Lukashenka altogether. A bulk part of Belarusian opposition facing the problems with Western support are inclined to turn to old Eastern comrades and this week proved that Moscow can count not only on popular reaction to anti-Lukashenka propaganda but also look toward collaboration of many politicians left for years without access to power in the country.
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Every time facing confrontation with Moscow, Belarusian president speaks about immaterial and spiritual – common Slav roots, history and kinship of Belarusians and Russians. Emotions and sentiments can matter a lot in international politics and are an effective tool in national foreign policy of some countries. Reiterating his declarations on Belarusians’ and Russians’ unity, Lukashenka is undoubtedly targeting Russian sentimental bonds to his country, not his Belarusian compatriots.

Russians are mostly longing for their imperial and Soviet history to be appreciated and positively articulated abroad. Lukashenka perfectly realized it a very long time ago. He understood that huge potential of Russian frustration and anger at loosing former imperial greatness had harbored immense opportunities for political projects in Russia. One did not need to be even a Russian politician to conquer neighboring country’s hearts and minds by playing old imperial motives!

After coming to power in mid-1990s, Lukashenka shrewdly posed himself as a warrior for restoring Soviet Union and his version of pan-Slavism. It fared quite well for a while and he got very popular in Russia whose residents ever more were seeing him as a fine alternative to hard-drinking Boris Yeltsin in 1990s. Belarusian president was firmly on his way into Kremlin. But then Colonel Putin unexpectedly put an end to it at millenium turn. Lukashenka could not compete with dynamic new Russian leader.

Belarusian regime’s Russian policy contracted to more humble limits. It began to implement a new, however, pretty familiar paradigm – while playing on emotional, spiritual and mythological bonds to Belarus in Russian mentality, Belarus should have become the very best Russia’s ally to be cared of and defended at any cost by Moscow support and money. Actually, one can guess that Lukashenka wanted to be for Russia what Israel is for United States, i.e. a strategic ally which significance is not limited to solely economic or military issues.

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The most important issue in Belarusian politics today is the next presidential election. However, the candidates that have been proposed by the parties so far are no major politicians as the opposition has been kept out of the parliament since 1996. As a result, they see the election as little more than an opportunity to announce their existence to the broader public. Having selected relatively unknown candidates to represent them (such as Romanchuk, Kastusiou, Hlushakou), the opposition parties seem to already consider the election a lost cause. They as if avoid risking the reputation of their better known party members.

The issue of most interest in the next election is the extent and the nature of the Russian involvement. For the first time, Moscow is thought to have abandoned the side of the incumbent president Alyaksandr Lukashenka. Looking back at the demise of the Kyrgyz government with Russia’s blessing in April, one wonders how the Kremlin’s disfavor could affect the current Belarusian regime.

As a colleague versed in the Kyrgyz politics has recently explained to me, the Russians did not initially plan to get rid of president Kurmanbek Bakiyev for good. Instead, they hoped to merely to rein him in once Bakiyev stopped supporting the Russian interests in his country. The US influence was also critical for this self-serving Central Asian cleptocracy. Because of the increasing problems with the US military base in Kyrgyzstan, Washington was encouraging Bakiyev’s opponents hoping to tilt the scales in favor of a more reasonable regime in the country.

Of course, neither of the world powers had wanted a revolution. But the Kyrgyz opposition understood their message in its own way. Seeing Moscow as ready to help out with ousting the Bakiyev’s regime and Washington as not opposed to the idea enough to stall it, the opposition rushed to attack the governmental institutions.

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Sergey Yenin, a vice chairman of the LGBT Human Rights Group GayBelarus.By and co-organizer of the Slavic Pride in Minsk shares his first-hand experience.

Gay Pride March took place in Minsk on May 15. After some 200 meters, it was broken up by the riot police with twelve participants arrested after scenes of reported police violence.

According to UKGayNews*, these are probably the most dramatic 1,000 words written about a Gay Pride event anywhere in the world this year.

Arrested, Beaten, Threatened, Jailed and Sent for Trial Just for Taking Part in Slavic Gay Pride
…Yet PROUD of what we all accomplished in Minsk

By Sergey Yenin

MINSK, May 19, 2010 – This is an account of the most dramatic 48 hours in my life as a gay activist in Belarus.

There were four of us in the taxi. Myself, Logan (and Australian filmmaker), Jack (his boyfriend) and Chad (a photographer working on a project Walk with Pride). I couldn’t help shivering in anticipation of the upcoming Pride march and the possible extreme few hours that I would probably face. But I couldn’t let my friends worry as well. The taxi driver noticed that something was really wrong with the place he had to drop us off.

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Foreign Policy has published a list of the World’s Top Dissidents that includes a person from Belarus: Iryna Vidanava, founder and editor of the multimedia youth magazine 34. It is understood that 34 is the revived multimedia version version of Studenckaja Dumka, a Belarusian language youth magazine that has earlier been banned in Belarus. Mrs. Vidanava’s will to revive and to continue the magazine’s existence in the difficult Belarusian conditions is indeed worth the highest admiration. Repressions from the Belarusian officials force 34 to be proactive and to seek new modern forms for it. As a result, 34 is a product of much higher quality than any of the archaic and propagandist state media and is indeed a unique phenomenon in Belarus.

It is strange, however, that Foreign Policy has ignored such well-known Belarusian dissident politicians as the 2006 oppositional presidential candidates Aliaksandr Milinkievich or Aliaksandr Kazulin. Kazulin has held a 52 days long hunger strike after being unlawfully arrested and sent to prison after the elections*. Zianon Pazniak, the exiled former leader of the Belarusian Popular Front, lives abroad since allegedly having faced murder threats in 1996. An other notable Belarusian dissident is Ales Bialiacki*, head of the Belarusian Human Rights Centre Viasna. He was nominated for the Nobel Prize in 2006.

Iryna Vidanava: Some former Soviet republics have made modest strides in liberalizing their political culture, but Belarus is not one of them. Minsk is infamous for its harassment and intimidation of local media and curtailing freedom of speech — both areas in which Vidanava has fought back forcefully.

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In his May 4 interview with the Reuters news agency, Belarusian president again tried to pose as a strong figure independent both of the West and Moscow. However, while he briefly lashed out at Russia for its ousting Kyrgyz president last month, the main target for his criticism was the West. Alyaksandr Lukashenka believes that he has given the West a lot of important favors, yet did not get enough in return. He feels “deceived.”

According to him

If we tomorrow would make our political system as in Ukraine, then you [Western politicians] would applaud us and praise us everywhere. We, however, do not want it, because we have seen what happened in Ukraine, and what is happening there until now. You want to send us the same way. You know, it is more than strange, I absolutely do not understand, why do you need it? Why do you need an unstable center of Europe?

The interview, indeed, showed rather cynical attitude of Belarusian leadership in relations with the West – EU, USA, some international organizations and many Western countries. Adamantly refusing to undertake any significant political and social liberalization in the country and avoiding transparent economic reforms, Lukashenka is going to become acceptable for the West through providing security and stability on eastern borders of Europe, preventing Russian incursions in the former Soviet Union and making his own deals with unscrupulous Western businesspeople behind the doors closed for public.

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Alyaksandr Milinkevich, a leader of For Freedom party, announced his candidacy in the next presidential election. He said his campaign slogan would be “Let’s Make Belarus True Europe!”

At a May 3 press conference in Minsk, Milinkevich said he sees Belarus’ future in the European Union (EU) and hopes to “draw the Belarusians closer to the European level of life” within five years. Milinkevich plans to negotiate visa-free travel to the European Union for Belarusians and plans to create a free trade zone with the EU if elected president. He also supports building a market economy in Belarus.

Milinkevich vowed to “renew the democratic principles of the separation of powers declared by the 1994 constitution and hold elections for all bodies of government according to international democratic standards,” secure independent courts and freedom of expression, and repeal “all discriminatory laws that obstruct the activity of non-governmental organizations and trade unions and violate the rights of ethnic and religious minorities.”

He said Belarus should maintain “good-neighborly, open, mutually advantageous relations” with Russia and promised to conduct neutral foreign policy.

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Looking for subtext in yesterday’s meeting between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk is all the more tempting because Lukashenka had urged not to look for one.

Among other things, the two leaders discussed steps Belarus has to take to join the Council of Europe and the need for opening European markets. Yanukovich said Ukraine was “more advanced” with respect to dealing with Europe. He said Ukraine’s “experience will be interesting for Belarus” and hinted at a “new opportunity” resulting from Ukraine’s chairmanship of the Council of Europe. Thus, it is especially interesting to speculate how Belarus’ relations with Ukraine affect its relations with the European Union (EU).

Of course, the degree of Ukraine’s influence on Belarus-EU dialogue depends, first and foremost, on the rapport between Minsk and Kiev. According to Lukashenka, whose policies have endangered the former many times, there’s no need to worry about the latter. “Someone gets all tense about our relations. We are not going to be friends against someone. Belarus is not going to get involved into geopolitical problems. It is not in our interests and I think not in Ukraine’s,” Lukashenka said. Likewise, Yanukovych, an ethnic Belarusian himself, said the policies of Belarus and Ukraine toward each other will continue be “good-neighborly and transparent.”

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The world has recently witnessed the overthrown Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev descend from the ominous volcanic clouds in Mink, ending the rumors over his whereabouts and further damaging Belarus’ international image.

Ousted in an April 7 uprising, Bakiev first fled to Kazakhstan and on April 19 was safely delivered to the Belarusian capital by Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s personal security services.

While Bakiev’s flight to Belarus was hardly the bold stunt Lukashenka described, Kyrgyz president indeed had good reasons be fleeing as in his home country. In Kyrgyzstan, he faces trial for allegedly ordering police to open fire on protesters and causing 85 deaths. It is more difficult to see any good reasons why Minsk will may have had for sheltering Bakiev. This may further alienate it both from Russia and the West.

On the one hand, alternating clashes with Russia and with the West against each other could one day turn out to a smart move on Lukashenka’s part. After all, Belarus was able to get cheap gas and oil from Russia, enjoyed generous IMF loans as well as some money from Moscow, and was invited it to join the Eastern Partnership.

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The ousted leader of Kyrgyzstan said Wednesday from exile in Belarus that he is still president of his Central Asian country.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev was deposed in an April 7 uprising that left 85 people dead in the Kyrgyz capital. He fled last week to neighboring Kazakhstan and arrived in the Belarusian capital earlier this week.

Bakiev Insists He’s Still Kyrgyzstan’s President
By RFE/RL
April 22, 2010

In his first public comments from exile, Kyrgyzstan’s ousted leader said he remains the legitimate president of the country and called on the international community not to recognize the interim government in Bishkek.

Speaking in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, Bakiev said he was retracting a handwritten letter of resignation brandished by the authorities who forced him from power.

“I do not recognize my resignation,” Bakiev said, pledging to “explain later” before going on to say: “Nine months ago, the people of Kyrgyzstan elected me their president and I swore to serve them. There is no power that can stop me from fulfilling my oath. Only death can stop me.”

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