BelarusDigest > All > Ghetto or Barricade? – Digest of Belarusian Analytics

Ghetto or Barricade? – Digest of Belarusian Analytics

14 November 2012

Alexander Klaskousky

Belarusian experts carried out a lively debate on the role of civil society and intellectual in contemporary Belarus, revelations of Zianon Pazniak and the situation with doing business in Belarus among other topics.

Civil Society: To the Ghetto or the Barricade? – political analyst Alexander Klaskousky summarised the views of the participants of the conference "The State of Civil Society in Belarus," which took place in Warsaw on October 26-27, with support from the Casimir Pulaski Foundation and the Council of Europe. In particular, CSO activists believe that Belarusian authorities talking about modernization are not ready to proceed with serious reforms. Also, CSOs have still not still seen any mitigation of the circumstances for their activity in the country.

Damocles Sword of Anonymous Donations – Yury Chausau, based on case of the magazine ARCHE which is now under financial investigation, expresses concern that formal suspicion of violating the law in the economic sphere can be a reason for the persecution of civil society institutions. The expert, in particular, draws attention to the legislative nonsense whereby anonymous donations in Belarus are not prohibited, but are treated as foreign aid, the use of which is tightly regulated.

The Main Battle will be After Lukashenka – Alexander Klaskousky refers the Alexander Lukashenka's thesis that it is time "to bring to power normal young politicians." The journalist makes a sad conclusion that the hour "X", which is so expected of change agents can be stupidly missed: "Belarus lacks a truly educated, hardened in real battles, polished by practice, and disciplined by responsibility political cadres. It's difficult to consider as such those members of Parliament who do not solve anything, or languish in the ghetto, at most what now exists is the leading of online internecine wars by opposition figures.

Another revelations from Zyanon Pazniak – one of the most sensational recent revelations belongs to Zyanon Paznyak, leader of the CCP-BPF who has lived abroad for more than 15 years. Paznyak narrates for almost 30 minutes about how the former head of the OSCE office in Minsk Hans-Georg Wieck, in coordination with KGB, who spent $1.7 million on splitting BPF and hand-picked the current Belarusian opposition, which are "a bunch of people to whom the West gives money and tells what to do". Paznyak suggests that democracy is only a tool to achieve Western interests in Belarus, which is not always in the best interests of Belarus and was widely quoted by state media.

The Return of Europe – BISS presented the seventh issue of the polling memorandum series based on the public opinion poll data of the Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS). Surprisingly good news for Europe: for the first time since June 2011 Belarusians would prefer a European choice. No clear winner appeared in the controversy surrounding the opposition’s decision over whether to boycott parliamentary elections or to participate. BISS considers those to be the two main outcomes of the latest polling data provided by IISEPS.

Belarusians' Ideas of Human Rights and Rights Defense Activities – the study was conducted by the Centre for European Transformation on the initiative of Belarusian human rights organizations from April-June 2012. The purpose of the study was to identify concepts that exist in Belarusian society regarding the relationship between people and the state, human rights and their defence. The initial hypotheses generally affirmed that: a) the set of issues that is being researched is not actualised in the practises and beliefs of the respondents; b) the level of competence of the respondents as to the specified issues is not very high.

Analytical Review of the Human Rights Situation in Belarus. July-September 2012 – the Review covers the period of July-September 2012 and identifies medium-term trends in the area of human rights, socio-political and economic situation in Belarus. It also contains a final report on the observation of the parliamentary elections and the analysis of the state of Belarusian civil society. The document was prepared by BHC, BAJ, the NGO Assembly, Lawtrend, Human Rights Centre Viasna, BISS, EuroBelarus, etc.

Discussion TUT: Will People of the Moment Lead Changes in Belarus? – political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky and political columnist Pavlyuk Bykovsky speculate who could take the lead, when Belarusian society is ready for a change in politics. Both experts believe that the situation will birth new faces, but not use the former presidential candidates and political activists who are now displaced abroad.

Belarus and Russia: Affinity and Dependency – Grigory Ioffe considers the closeness of Russia and Belarus which has multiple aspects, one of which is a structural affinity between Russian and Belarusian societies. Both are afflicted with an internal schism, and the two resulting segments of each society have limited mutual communication. The problem of the Belarusian Westernizers is their proclivity to construe their own preferences and attitudes as those of the society as a whole. The analyst refers to the case with the diametrically opposite verdicts on the September 23 parliamentary elections by the opposition-minded electorate and the rest of Belarusian society, and supports it with the recent IISEPS data.

Index of Economic Adequacy of Belarus-2012 – analytical community "Liberal Club" presents the second edition of its study "Index of Economic Adequacy of Belarus-2012". The annual survey is an attempt to draw the attention of the Belarusian public to the existing economic instability in Belarus and the absence of public debate on how to overcome it; the latter is considered by the authors as a major threat to national security. The presentation of the report took place on October 26, in Minsk.

Business in Belarus 2012: Status, Trends, Prospects – IPM Research Center prepared an annual report on the status and prospects of small and medium size business in Belarus in 2012. The issue considers the economic situation of small and medium enterprises and their development prospects, including an analysis of the influence of the integration agreements with Russia and Kazakhstan in this field.

Belarus’ Foreign Policy Index №10 – The Kremlin retains the full political support of Minsk. The Ukrainian vector after its summer activation has returned to essentially zero. The relations with developing countries improved a bit, especially with China. The relations with the European Union re-entered the stage of "vacuum of events". These are the main conclusions presented by BISS in the latest issue of Belarusian Foreign Policy Index, covering September and October of 2012.

Belarus Digest prepared this overview on the basis of materials provided by Pact. This digest attempts to give a richer picture of the recent political and civil society events in Belarus. It often goes beyond the hot stories already available in English-language media.

https://belarusdigest.com/story/ghetto-or-barricade-digest-of-belarusian-analytics/

Ryhor Astapenia16 November 2012

Belarus Announces Pull Out from Latvian and Lithuanian Ports

Alexander Lukashenka announced a re-orientation of Belarusian export cargo streams from Latvian and Lithuanian ports to Russian ports. The announcement came on 9 November at a meeting with the Governor of Russia's Leningrad region.

Belarusian authorities have started a new round of geopolitical games between the East and the West. On the one hand, Belarus is showing its loyalty to Putin. On the other, it is showing its importance to Lithuania and Latvia. The experts say that this step will give no economic benefits to Belarus. Baltic ports offer much better conditions with regard to prices, quality and speed, than Russia could ever provide.

Putin of course warmly greeted this statement from official Minsk. However, he knows Lukashenka too well to trust him. The Belarusian ruler promised democratisation to the West, and the introduction of the Russian rouble to the East, many times. He has failed to keep either promise. Today’s promise may also eventually turn out to be bluff.

No Economic Sense

Today, the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda and the Latvian port of Ventspils conduct most of the transportation of Belarusian goods by sea. It makes good economic sense.

First, the Baltic ports are located closer to Belarus. Potassium fertilisers produced by Belaruskali pass 712km on their way from Salihorsk to Klaipeda. The distance between Salihorsk and St. Petersburg amounts to 998km.

Second, railway transportation for one tonne of cargo is cheaper in Lithuania than in Russia. Third, Lithuanian and Latvian railways offer better services. Fourth, additional logistic expenses always accompany any logistical re-orientation. And finally, ports in Russia's Leningrad region freeze, which leads to greater economic expense.

Belaruskali, which made up 16 per cent of the world's potassium production in 2010, used to make the decision on transportation through the Baltic ports by itself, based on its own economic interests. It concluded long-term agreements with Lithuanian and Latvian ports, beneficial for both parties.

The Baltics long for cooperation with Belarus, because Belarusians remain the main clients of their ports. If the decision to re-orientate is really undertaken, it will greatly affect the economy of the Baltic States. For example, Latvia receives five to seven per cent of its own GDP from freight transportation on behalf of Belarus.

Today, Latvians want to make further concessions to the Belarusians. The Minister of Transport Aivis Ronis has promised to create milder conditions for the purchase and lease of the port facilities. This may partially explain why the Baltic States often stand against the European Union's economic sanctions with regard to Belarus.

Just Politics

Lukashenka took the decision to re-orientate together with Putin and under his pressure. Lithuanian Minister of Transport and Communications Eligius Masulis said that “Russia set certain conditions in return for aid and Belarus has nowhere else to go”. Indeed, Putin has strong leverage against Lukashenka.

First, Belarus and Russia are holding negotiations on prices for energy resources for the coming year. Minsk wants discounts as the economic stability of Belarus depends on these prices.The Russians want Belarus to ship 2-2.5m tonnes of oil products back to Russia rather then to the West. Belarusian oil processing plants can fulfil such task but they will have to work with no profit.

Secondly, the Belarusian authorities hope to receive another Russian loan. Belarus failed to fulfil Russia’s demands on liberalisation and privatisation, so there may be no more loans. However, decision-makers rarely stick to the papers they have signed in Eastern politics. Re-orientation of exports to Russian ports may become an additional argument to help Moscow forget about other older commitments.

Thirdly, the re-orientation may also be the payment for the deceitful schemes of oil products export. This year, Belarus exported petrol disguised as solvents. Thus Belarus avoided the obligation of paying the fees to the Russian budget. The Russians detected this scheme and demand that Belarus should pay pack $1.5bn. Belarus has no money to do that.

On the other side, official Minsk is displaying its importance to the Baltic States. Lukashenka's statement appeared as a powerful message to remind Lithuania and Latvia that they should do their best to defend the “mild approach” of the EU to Belarus.

This spring, Belarus already threatened Lithuania and Latvia with freight transportation re-orientation were the European Union to impose economic sanctions. Official Minsk wants the European Union to make concessions on democracy and political prisoners.

What Decision Will Official Minsk Take?

Even Lukashenka probably does not yet know whether Belarus will transfer the export to Russian Baltic ports. Belarusian analyst Valer Karbalevich recalls that ten years ago Lukashenka promised that Belarus would transfer its export to the ports of Kaliningrad. It remains an empty promise.

Lukashenka likes to make promises and but not keep them. Very few politicians in the world still trust his words as a result. On the one hand, it would be logical if Belarus exported its goods through the Baltic ports as before. On the other hand, the Belarusian authorities are fully dependent on Russia today and will do their best to make the Russian leaders like them.

Lukashenka stands out as the only politician in the world who can play games with the Russian leadership so skillfully and openly. The Belarusian ruler has been manoeuvring between the EU and Russia for 18 years and he knows his stuff very well.

But this may not last much longer. The Belarusian ruling elite must demonstrate its loyalty. Otherwise, they will have to release political prisoners and to improve relations with the West – something which they are very reluctant to do.

Ryhor Astapenia

https://belarusdigest.com/?p=1

Ryhor Astapenia

Ryhor Astapenia is the founder of the Centre for New Ideas and an associate analyst at the Ostrogorski Centre.

all articles » Follow @

Tags Belarus-EU relations Belarus-Latvia relations Belarus-Lithuania relations belarus-russia relations Belaruskali economy Latvia Lithuania Lukashenka railway Russia