The reduction of oil dotations from Russia: a catastrophe for Belarus?

On 12 April, reported that Belarus has pushed for an urgent modernization of it chief refineries in Navapolatsk and Mazyr to minimize the losses from the reduction of Russian oil dotations via the ‘tax manoeuvre’. However, if Russia reduces oil dotations in 2019, catastrophic consequences should not follow for Belarus. Belarus will disagree to concede to Russia in the questions of real integration, as Moscow means it: creating common customs, unification of currencies, creating a common visa space, and deployment of Russian military bases.

Alexander Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin still negotiate about compensating Belarus for Russia’s latest oil tax reform.  The Russian “tax manoeuvre” foresees a decrease in export duties on oil and an increase in tax on the extraction of natural resources. So far, Belarus possesses several options to compensate over the ‘tax manoeuvre’, including borrowing from international organisations and curtailing the work of EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) – an intergovernmental organization particularly important for the Russia leadership. Hence, Russia’s options to force Belarus into closer integration remain rather limited.

Wireline services: Wirelines provide a number measurements to help determine if an area is safe for exploration or not including measuring fluid pressures and detecting gases trapped miles below ground.

How much oil dotation’s did Belarus receive from Russia in the past?

According to the data of the Russian side (Putin and Medvedev mention these figures when they talk of supporting Belarus), since 2005, through cheap supplies of oil and gas, Belarus received from Russia dotations amounting approximately 100 billion USD. According to the data of Russian experts (for example, of S.Agibalov, the chief expert of the Russian Institute of Energetics and Finances) after 2014 Russia reduced oil and gas dotations to 4 billion USD a year: around 2 billion USD from the supplies of cheap oil, and around 2 billion USD from cheap gas supplies.

Deliveries of oil products comprised up to 40 per cent of the Belarusian export (in USD), in recent years – over 30 per cent. Belarus refined the Russian oil at its factories (Navapolatsk and Mazyr oil refineries) and sold oil products at the international market at market price.


Currently, the sides are negotiating compensations for the losses to the Belarusian budget, resulting from this “tax manoeuvre” in Russia (which led to the reduction of duty-free supplies of oil).

The Russian side suggests that Russia will pay the oil dotations at the end of each year if common customs is created, and if currencies are unified (the Russian ruble serving as a currency in the territory of Belarus). Namely, if Belarus takes the first steps to lose sovereignty.

Arguments over the ‘tax manoeuvre’, a break-through in 2019?

It is likely that in 2019 the sides will not come to an agreement concerning the full resumption of oil dotations. According to Belarusian estimates, in case of curtailment of oil dotations, in 2019 the Belarusian budget will lose around 400 million USD (with the price 70 USD per barrel).

In 2017, Belarus got from Russia around 24 million tons of oil. However, the balance surplus in the foreign trade of Belarus comprised only 63.2 million USD. Reduction of oil dotations in 2019 will affect negatively the GDP of Belarus (in 2017, it grew by 2.4 per cent, in 2018 it grew by 3 per cent).

In November 2018, the Belarusian Minister of Finances Maksim Yermalovich claimed that the curtailment of oil dotations would not bring significant negative consequences. Belarus could compensate the losses by drawing a loan from international financial organizations (in particular, in September 2018 Belarus resumed talks with the IMF on obtaining a credit).

Will Belarus obtain loans from international organisations?

As it follows from statements of top Belarusian officials, since the annexation of the Crimea by Russia and the start of the war in the east of Ukraine, Belarus has good opportunities to draw loans from international financial organizations at profitable terms. Unless the credits are obtained, Belarus has three variants of compensation for the losses from the reduction of oil dotations from Russia.


The first one is by decreasing gold and foreign currency reserves (as of January 1, 2019, the gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus comprised 7 billion 157 million). The second one is decreasing imports or, which is harder to implement without structural reforms, increasing exports.

The third variant is cutting down on social expenses from the budget and reducing (or halting) support to unprofitable state enterprises. For example, in December 2018 allowances for free medical substances were cut. A combination of these variants can be implemented.

Few options for Russia?

In case Belarus declines to make concessions regarding real integration, as Moscow sees it, it is highly unlikely that Russia will increase the price for gas and, by doing so, will also stop gas dotations. The preferential price for gas for Belarus was envisaged by the agreement on selling the Belarusian gas transportation enterprise Beltrasgaz to the Russian company Gasprom at the end of 2011. In 2019, Belarus pays 129 USD for one thousand cubic meters of gas.

Representatives of the Belarusian government had claimed that receiving cheap gas was a condition for Belarus’s participation in the Eurasian Economic Union. For Russia, the existence of this intergovernmental organization and participation of Belarus in it is important.

Besides, Lukashenko uses Belarusian participation in the EAEU as an argument for receiving also oil dotations from Russia. There is some probability that negotiations in 2019 will come to reaching an agreement on continuing duty-free supplies of Russian oil without any concessions from the Belarusian side.

In conclusion, despite the fruitless talks and mutual threats between Minsk and Moscow, Belarus’s bargaining position remains rather strong. To compensate the losses from the ‘tax manoevre’, Belarus might borrow from international organisation, reduce social expenses, and threaten to quit the Eurasian Economic Union – an organization of a strategic importance for Russia.

Belarus faces its first investment claims

Since gaining independence, Belarus has never participated in proper investor-state disputes. Nevertheless, in late 2017 and 2018, Belarus faced a record-breaking three investment arbitration claims. A Dutch investor in a Belarusian financial institution and two Russian investors in the Belarusian manufacturing registered their claims against the state. All three investors accused the Belarusian government of stripping them of their Belarusian assets and breaking mutual investment treaties.

Such claims potentially harm the image of Belarus for investors, despite the success of such large investment projects as the High-Tech Park and Great Stone Industrial Park. Although Belarus occupies a remarkable 37th place in the Doing Business ratings, the state’s attitude towards foreign investors remains far from perfect.

A scandalous banker claims assets back: JSC Delta Bank versus Belarus

On 22 March 2018, a Dutchman who had invested in a Belarusian financial institution, JSC Delta Bank, registered a claim at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in Washington. According to the Dutch claimant, Belarus breached a bilateral Dutch-Belarusian investment treaty.

Prior to 2015, the Dutch claimant had held 75% of JSC Delta Bank, with the remaining 25 % belonging to a Ukrainian businessman, Mykola Lagun. In 2015 Belarus’s Central Bank stripped JSC Delta Bank of its licence. The Belarusian authorities maintained that JSC Delta Bank illegally withdrew money from the country and failed to meet its obligations to creditors. The authorities initiated several criminal cases against the bank’s top management on charges relating to the withdrawal of funds. JSC Delta Bank was later declared bankrupt, yet the bank’s liquidation procedures still continue.

By 2016 JSC Delta Bank’s part-owner, Mykola Lagun, had threatened the Belarusian authorities with the international courts. Interestingly, Lagun, also retained partial ownership of Ukraine’s Delta Bank until 2015. With the bankruptcy of Delta Bank the same year, the country’s deposit guarantee agency reportedly paid out more than $600m to depositors. Lagun has been cooperating with Ukraine’s investigative authorities on charges of failure to meet the Delta Bank’s obligations to Ukrainian creditors. The JSC Delta Bank’s case became the third investment arbitration case against Belarus since late 2017.

A failed manufacture giant in Asipovichy: Grand Express versus Belarus

On 31 January 2018, Russian company Grand Express also registered the largest arbitration case against Belarus with the ICSID in Washington. The Russian company claimed that Belarus breached two treaties protecting foreign investment in the Eurasian Economic Union.

Mykola Lagun, JSC Delta Bank’s former co-owner. Source:

Prior to 2015, Grand Express owned a 74% stake in the Asipovichsky Carriage Works (AVZ). The remaining stake belonged to the Belarusian Railways (BelZhD). The partners intended to build a plant with a production capacity of 2,500 freight cars and 2,000 tank containers per year.

Grand Express participated in the plant’s infrastructure building and acquired modern equipment. Nevertheless, in 2015, the parties quarrelled regarding the purchase of rail wagons. Grand Express maintained that the Belarusian government and BelZhD failed to meet their obligations; the Belarusian authorities, on the contrary, blamed the Russian stakeholder.

Grand Express failed to acquire compensation for the built assets from the Belarusian authorities and, in March 2017, AVZ filed for bankruptcy.

$200m for a trolleybus depot? Manolium Processing versus Belarus

On 15 November 2017, the Russian company Manolium Processing informed the authorities of their arbitration claim against the Republic of Belarus. Similarly to Grand Express, Manolium Processing accused the Belarusian authorities of breaching the 2014 Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union. The amount of the claim reached $200m.

The cooperation between Manolium Processing and the Belarusian government began in 2003, when Manolium’s owners, Russian citizens Aram Yekavian and his partner Andrei Dolgov, won a land plot tender in the centre of Minsk. The Russian investors planned to build a business centre and a five-star hotel at a total cost $200m. In return, the investors agreed to invest $15m in a trolleybus depot nearby and $1m into the National Library construction fund.

Railway wagons made in Asipovichy. Source:

As a result, Manolium Processing had built a trolleybus depot, however, the Belarusian authorities failed to transfer the land plot. The Russian company asked for the compensation over the built depot, yet the Belarusian authorities maintained that Manolium Processing breached its obligations to the investment contract.

The Russian company further tried to restore its rights in Belarusian courts, however, the courts also failed to secure the compensation for the depot and obliged Manolium Processing to pay damages to Belarus.

In early May 2017, the Russian company submitted a pre-arbitration request, thus allowing Belarus six months to resolve the dispute amicably. Nevertheless, the sides failed to reach a pre-arbitration settlement. Currently, Manolium Processing requests compensation of $171m in lost profits and $37m over the expropriated property. The hearings will take place in summer 2019 at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague. The Ministry of the Economy will represent Belarus.

The winner takes all

The largest investors to Belarus come from Austria, China, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. On the verge of the growing conflict with Russia, Belarus will have to increase and diversify its foreign investment flows. This will allow to modernise the national economy and decrease the economic dependence on Russia. At the same time, according to Jason Pellmar from the International Finance Corporation, Belarusian legislation still lacks proper legal protections for foreign investors. As a result, Belarus inevitably makes mistakes in dealing with foreign investors.

Should the Dutch and the Russian claimants win their investment cases, other investors might consider applying to international courts rather than conduct difficult talks with the Belarusian authorities. Belarus might also reconsider its rough attitude towards foreign investors. The Belarusian government might finally realize that unwise stripping foreign investors of assets not only results in high compensations but also in the country’s reputation damage.

Losing Russian transit, Belarus looks for European and Chinese alternatives

On 1 February Belarus will raise tariffs for the transit of Russian oil via pipelines crossing its territory by 6.7 per cent. Transit constitutes an important source of revenue for the country, while control of pipeline routes also gives Minsk a bargaining chip in relations with Moscow.

Seeking to expand its transit role, the government has announced plans to double its revenues from transit and transportation services. The ambitious plans aim to partly offset Russia’s increasing tendency to route cargo and passengers around Belarus.

Regional crises drive growth in transit via Belarus

In 2016 Belarus earned about BYN3.2bn (more than $1.5bn) from transit and transportation services. That meant a growth of 40.8 per cent from 2015. According to an assessment published by Belarus Segodnya, the main media outlet of the Belarusian government, Minsk received $150m for oil transit, $476m for gas transit, and $879m for transportation services in 2016.

The Belarusian government aims to double revenues from transit and transportation services in next 12 years, taking 2016 as the baseline. This conforms with the Concept of Development of the Logistical System of Belarus covering the period through to 2030, which the Belarusian Council of Ministers approved on 28 December.

The newly adopted Concept lists among key priorities the development of transit between Europe and China (including as part of China’s “One Belt, One Road initiative”), integration with EU markets, facilitation of logistical integration between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as integration with global logical and transport companies.

Is it realistic? Belarus’s transit role in various sectors has grown in recent years. Transit flows increased after the start of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, as Kyiv minimised its rail transportation with Russia. On 12 December, Ukraine’s minister for infrastructure, Volodymyr Omelyan, announced that plans to completely halt rail transport to Russia are under consideration. If realised, this would mean that even more passengers and cargo between Ukraine and Russia would cross Belarus.

Anatol Husarau, general director of Belavia, the national airline. Image:

A similar situation has developed in air transport. According to official information from Belavia, the Belarusian national airline, transit passengers now account for almost every second passenger on its regular flights. Speaking to on 15 December, Anatol Husarau, general director of Belavia, attributed the increase in transit passenger numbers to the war in Eastern Ukraine. According to him, following the halting of air links between Belarus’s neighbours,

the main transit flow for Belavia and the National Airport Minsk is that one between Ukraine and Russia. I think this is about half of the total transit flow. That’s why we began to fly more [frequently] to Ukrainian airports.

The visa-free regime that Minsk introduced for citizens of eighty countries in February 2017 also facilitates passenger transit through Belarus. The probable increase in the duration of the visa-free regime, recently discussed by foreign minister Uladzimir Makei, can be expected to further promote transit.

Nord Stream pipeline threatens Belarusian interests

At the same time, a series of growing problems seriously undermines these transit developments for Belarus. Most acutely, other developments threaten gas transit – more profitable and politically crucial than oil transit. Despite the efforts of Russia’s opponents, especially Poland and Ukraine, Moscow continues to lay additional pipelines as part of the Nord Stream project. The pipeline brings gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic sea, circumventing Belarus and other Eastern European countries.

As early as January 2007, Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenka, called the plans for Nord Stream “Russia’s most foolish project.” His consternation hardly surprises, Minsk traditionally collects not only transit fees from Russian gas exports but also uses its capacities to regulate these transit flows as a leverage in political disputes with the Kremlin.

Minsk may lose more than gas transit. In September, the Moscow-based Kommersant daily newspaper reported that Russian shipbuilding firms were beginning to construct huge railway ferries to connect mainland Russia with the Kaliningrad enclave. If implemented, this move will relieve Russia of dependency on the region’s countries, including Belarus, in its land communication with Kaliningrad enclave.

Belarus can develop its transit – but only together with its neighbours

Integration with Russia and members of Russia-led EAEU very little helps Belarus to attract transit flows. Russia’s effective closing of almost the entire border with Belarus for nationals of third countries in October 2016 dramatically illustrated this, as did the introduction of border control zones in February 2017.

Wider Eurasian integration has brought even fewer results in the sphere of transit and transportation. The head of managing board of Eurasian development bank, Dmitri Pankin,  admitted this at the 12th International conference on Eurasian integration in Moscow in October. He stated that analysis of 30 major projects between EAEU member countries in the transportation sphere revealed a comprehensive lack of coordination.

Bogies exchange operation necessitated by the difference in the track gauge of Belarusian and Polish railways. Image: Nikozhmegov, Wikipedia.

The different width of railway track gauge between the former USSR and countries to the west of them constitutes part of the problem, requiring Belarus to change train undercarriages on the border. Moreover, according to Pankin, while Chinese containers move on Belarusian and Russian railways at a speed 40−50 km/h, after they cross Polish border their speed falls to just 15 km/h and the trains have to be shortened due to different transportation standards.

Minsk looks to solve these issues: after all, it has long desired to become a mediator between the Eurasian and European integration blocks. At a meeting of foreign ministers for Eastern Partnership and Visegrád Group members in Warsaw on 12 April 2017, Belarusian foreign minister Makei emphasised the importance of achieving better interaction between the members of both groups on transportation. According to him, this could be achieved in particular by ensuring better compatibility of standards in the region and ensuring international financing for infrastructural projects in Eastern Europe. Yet so far, no material results have followed from these discussions.

In recent years, Minsk earned more from transit and transportation services, in particular, due to the traffic of passengers and cargo which had earlier circulated directly between Ukraine and Russia. However, the situation with transit looks precarious for Minsk: Moscow works to decrease major gas transit flows via Belarus, establishing links to the Kaliningrad enclave that bypass Belarus, and otherwise sidelining Minsk and the entire region in its communications links to European countries.

The losses for Minsk from these Kremlin policies will be considerable both economically and politically. The Belarusian government apparently wants to compensate by providing Belarusian transit routes for new passenger and cargo flows’ between regional countries, the EU and China. And, last but not least, Moscow’s attitude will inexorably further alienate Minsk from the Kremlin.

CIS leaders rating, new local politicians, gas price drop, labour migration – Belarus state press digest

Minsk approves the current pragmatic approach of the EU towards the Eastern Partnership. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka is the top rated Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leader among Russians. The authorities expect new faces in politics after 2018 local election.

The cost of Russian gas for Belarus will decrease in 2018. Chinese Midea Group is expanding its business in Belarus. Belarusians are increasingly looking for jobs abroad.

This and more in the new Belarus state press digest.

Politics and foreign policy

The EU does not fully understand the ultimate goal of the Eastern Partnership. The EU, exhausted by internal difficulties, cannot bear the burden of geopolitical confrontation with Moscow, argues political scientist Usievalad Šymaŭ in an article published in Respublika, a Minsk based newspaper. Judging by the results of the Eastern Partnership summit, pragmatists in Europe now clearly dominate over hawks. The final declaration of the summit focused exclusively on a positive agenda and tried to bypass all dispute and moments of conflict, especially those related to the war in Ukraine.

This is a good sign for Belarus. It is precisely this format of cooperation that Minsk traditionally advocates, diligently avoiding ideology, which relations with the EU always entail. However, today’s pragmatic EU is a product not so much of goodwill as of internal weakness. European eastern policy may still undergo significant changes, which Belarus should remain prepared for.

Alexander Lukashenka heads the rating of CIS leaders among Russia’s population. The Presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan, Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Nursultan Nazarbayev, appeared highest on Russia’s rating of trust in leaders among CIS member states (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). According to the poll conducted by the All-Russian Centre for the Study of Public Opinion, 62 per cent of Russians trust Aliaksandr Lukashenka, and 56 per cent trust Nursultan Nazarbayev, reports Belarus Segodnia, a daily newspaper.

In addition, Russians recognise Belarus (64 per cent) and Kazakhstan (57 per cent) as their country’s main partners. Appraisals of the protection of Russian-speaking populations have also risen significantly. 66 per cent of Russians think that Russian-speakers enjoy full rights in Belarus (27 per cent in 2010), and 38 per cent thinks so of Kazakhstan (18 per cent in 2013).

Картинки по запросу лидия ермошина

Lidzija Jarmošyna. Photo:

The authorities expect new faces in politics after the 2018 local elections. Daily Belarusian newspaper Zviazda quoted the chairman of the Belarusian Central Election Commission, Lidzija Jarmošyna, who spoke on 6 December in Viciebsk at a training session for managers and organisers for the upcoming local councils elections.

Commenting on the applications, which are just now being sent in to the Central Election Commission, Lidzija Jarmošyna noted that they mostly concern the nomination of candidates for deputies. The candidates are inquiring about certain regulations, such as the declaration of property, use of election funds, and advertising rules. “All of this suggests that many individual candidates will participate in the election, because those from existing parties already have experience in such matters. We will have unexpected figures and new politicians,” said Jarmošyna.


The cost of Russian gas for Belarus will decrease in 2018. The price of Russian gas for Belarus in 2018 will drop from $143 to $129 per 1000 cubic metres, and to $127 in 2019. The lower price will make Belarusian enterprises more competitive, writes Belarus Segodnia. According to Energy Ministry estimates, the economic effect of the price reduction will reach $700m. By the end of the year, Belarus and Russia hope to define an approach to the formation of a common gas market in the Eurasian Economic Union by 2025.

The sides still disagree on tariffs for the transportation of gas through member state territory. Today, Russia’s Gazprom has exclusive rights to supply gas to Belarus. However, after the creation of the common gas market, the consumers will be able to purchase it from various producers in Russia and Kazakhstan through the stock exchange or by signing long-term contracts.

Chinese Midea Group is expanding its business in Belarus. On 27 November President Lukashenka hosted Fang Hongbo, the Chairman of the Board and President of Midea Group. The corporation is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of household appliances in China and the world with about 130,000 employees. The Belarusian leader said, “[Chinese businessmen] will not only always find the understanding of our leadership, but also all kinds of support.”

Midea Group came to Belarus a decade ago. It began production of microwave ovens and water heaters jointly with Horizont Holding, a Belarusian conglomerate. Fang Hongbo expressed his satisfaction with the results Midea Group’s partnership in Belarus over the period. He also spoke about the intention to use Belarus as a starting site for expansion to CIS markets. Midea Group plans to develop its existing production and to introduce new items, including refrigerators and washing machines.

More Belarusians are looking for jobs abroad. According to the Head of the Presidential Administration Natallia Kačanava, 97,600 Belarusians are currently working abroad, reports Narodnaja Hazieta, a Belarusian politics and society newspaper. Meanwhile, the Russian Interior Ministry’s Main Directorate for Migration published a report, which claims 346,000 Belarusians registered as migrants in Russia just in the past year. Moreover, some Belarusian migrants work in Russia illegally without registering.

However, because of Russia’s recession, more and more Belarusian labour migrants choose to work in Poland. In 2015, Polish employers registered some 5,500 work invitations for Belarusians under Poland’s simplified employment scheme. In 2016, this figure rose to about 25,000, and then went even higher in the first half of 2017. A study carried out by the the Institute of Sociology at the National Academy of Sciences shows that at present more than 8–10 per cent of Belarusian citizens are looking for work abroad.

Geely cars produced in Belarus. Photo:

The government has formulated preferential conditions for Geely car sales. The President has told administrators to increase the warranty period of the Belarusian-Chinese Geely car from 4 to 5 years and offer preferential conditions to buyers, writes Respublica. Belarusians will have the opportunity to make the first payment at 10 per cent a vehicle’s total cost, and then to either lease or finance it over 7 years. The sale of Geely vehicles under these new conditions begin this December.

The cost of Geely’s three new car models vary in the range of $17,000–$25,000. The government expects to sell at least 25,000 cars in the coming year, increasing this number by 10,000 annually. However, in the market for crossover vehicles—where Belarusian Geelys are located—competition remains very high. The entire domestic crossover market does not exceed 6,000 cars a year.

The state press digest is based on the review of state-controlled publications in Belarus. Freedom of the press in Belarus remains restricted and state media convey primarily the point of view of the Belarusian authorities. This review attempts to give the English-speaking audience a better understanding of how Belarusian state media shape public opinion in the country.

Belarus launches new Geely plant and plans for electric cars

On 17 November, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka participated in the opening of the new BelGee automotive plant, which will produce Chinese Geely cars. The venture is the largest passenger car enterprise in Belarusian history. Lukashenka also announced a draft decree to create incentives for Belarusians to buy domestically manufactured cars. In August, local developers presented the first Belarusian electric car. Lukashenka personally advocates the development of domestic electric car manufacturing. Although the market for electric vehicles is still young, it is growing highly competitive—even within the borders of the Eurasian Economic Union, of which Belarus is a member. As the Russian government is gearing up to take unprecedented measures to support its own electric car industry, Belarusian developers will have to make serious, well-thought out efforts to become competitive.

Belarus starts to produce Chinese cars

On 17 November, during his visit to the new automobile plant BelGee, Presdient Lukashenka announced that the government is drafting a decree to encourage Belarusians to buy Geely cars built in Belarus. The Belarusian-Chinese BelGee plant, which produces passenger cars under the Chinese Geely brand, was established in 2011. Lukashenka says the state aims for as many Belarusians as possible to buy domestically produced cars. This is going to be the largest passenger auto project with foreign backing in Belarus’s history.

It should be noted, however, that previous projects have not fared well. For instance, over a five year period, the Iranian company Samand produced about a thousand cars which were mainly sold to state organisations. Ford, which manufactured cars in Belarus in the ’90s, did the same amount of sales in a year. The authorities closed both operations, because the enterprises did not meet sales expectations. For 2018 and 2019, the government expects production and sales to reach 25,000 and 35,000 cars respectively. “But we have [still] another goal—to produce more. We will double capacity. We will sell 60,000 cars and then set a goal of 120,000,” the Belarusian president said.

Александр Лукашенко

President Alexander Lukashenka launches the Geely plant on 17 November. Photo: Belta

To be profitable, the plant has to sell at least 35,000 cars a year. However, the Belarusian market cannot absorb even a small fraction of this volume. According to data from the Association of Belarusian Car Owners, over the past 7 years purchases of new cars peaked in 2014. That year, Belarusians purchased around 50,000 vehicles, of which 20,000 were bought in Russia, where prices were attractive at the time. These figures suggest the absolute maximum domestic dealers can expect to sell is around 30,000 new cars. Moreover, the locally assembled Geely will have to compete with other more reputable, global brands. This seems an almost impossible task for the enterprise, as Geely remains outside even the top 25 most popular car models in Belarus, according to 2016 purchasing statistics published by TUT.BY, an online news portal. BelGee strategists say they are aware of the situation. They claim that 90 per cent of new Geely cars will be exported to Russia. But there, they will face virtually the same problem.

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Will Russians accept the Belarusian Geely?

Chinese automaker Geely plans to make annual global sales of 2 million cars by 2020. It expects to sell 170,000 cars abroad—80,000 of this number in Russia. However, so far Geely sales remain unimpressive. Worryingly, over first 9 months of 2017, Geely’s most negative sales trend expressed itself on the Russian market. Purchases dropped by 55.4 per cent (1,693 Geelys out of a total 1.13 million sales for the total Russian market) compared to the same period in 2016.
Sergey Udalov, the Deputy Head for Autostat, a consultancy, was quoted by Reuters saying the Belarusian plant will not be able to sell 30,000 cars per year. “I think it is possible to increase sales to 10,000, but I do not think they will be able to sell more,” said Udalov.
In fact, it is Russia that supplies Belarus with cars. Russia manufactures a dozen of global brands, including BMW, Kia, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Renault, Volkswagen, Ford, and Hyundai. For example, 90 per cent of cars sold in Belarus are assembled in Russia. How Belarus will compete with these Russian produced, global brands within Eurasian Economic Union markets remains unclear. Indeed, since the 90s, Belarus has failed to establish a single successful foreign car manufacturing venture. Moreover, a strategy to sell cars to Russia is of questionable value in the context of Belarus’s 30-30-30 goal. This goal intends to even-out Belarus’s export volumes between the EU, Russia and Asia in equal shares, and thereby free it form excessive dependence upon the Russian market. If 90 per cent of cars are intended for the Russian market, it appears the 30-30-30 target does not apply to Geely cars.

Is electrification the answer?

Another issue for Belarusian Geely advocates is the global transition towards electric cars. In the coming decade, electric cars may reach prices comparable to their gasoline-powered counterparts and sales are projected conquer a larger share of the global market. For short-term, the production of petrol-engined Geelys can be justified by huge oil reserves and the absence of legislative incentives to sell electric vehicles in both Russia and Belarus. At first glance, Belarus appears to be taking an approach that risks lagging behind global trends in the very near future. But in fact, the Belarusian government is already trying to anticipate the shift to electric vehicles.
In August 2017, President Lukashenka personally tested and praised the latest Tesla electric car model from the US. The president urged Belarusian developers to use Tesla as an example. That same month, the National Academy of Sciences unveiled the first Belarusian electric car. The prototype is based on the Geely SC7 series, which is assembled in Belarus. Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimir Siamaška noted that with the commissioning of the Belarusian nuclear power plant, Belarus will need to increase its consumption of electric energy. According to Siamaška, in the next three to four years, Belarus will mass produce electric cars. (Related material: where to buy Tesla shares in the UK according to stockapps)
However, if Belarusians want to develop their own electric car, they must hurry. In October 2017, the Russian government sent a letter to all key ministries and state institutions calling for unprecedented measures to stimulate demand for electric-powered transport. The letter spoke of subsidy programs, preferential car loans and auto leasing for electric vehicles. Owners of shopping and entertainment centres will be awarded tax incentives for installing electric recharge stations. In particular, support will be provided to manufacturers of electric vehicles—both domestic and foreign enterprises—who localise assembly in Russia. The letter also suggests the government will set minimum purchasing quotas for electric vehicles for various state institutions. Given that many Russian auto producers have already begun work on electric cars, Belarusians will need to invent something truly extraordinary to be competitive.

Hazing investigation, local elections 2018, nuclear stress test – Belarus state press digest

Belarusian experts Jaŭhien Prejhierman and Piotr Piatroŭski opine that a pause in Eurasian integration is necessary until the members resolve current controversies. The government announces the date and details of the 2018 local elections.

The Defence Ministry brings changes to the Piečy training centre after an outrageous hazing incident. The first Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant, Astraviec, successfully passes its stress test. Belarus improves its anti-corruption record. Officials and cultural figures discuss policies to raise the status of the Belarusian language.

This and more in the new edition of the Belarus state press digest.

Politics and foreign policy

The experts call for a pause in Eurasian integration. Narodnaja Hazieta, a newspaper, provides the opinions of Belarusian experts Jaŭhien Prejhierman and Piotr Piatroŭski on the state of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). In just a few years, the EEU overcame several development stages that took the EU several decades: a customs union, a single economic space and an economic union. However, the result is that none of these platforms operate properly. Each contains numerous barriers, exceptions and limitations. Member states do not fully implement agreements. Deadlines for eliminating exemptions from the single market are continually postponed, including oil and gas prices, which are particularly sensitive for Belarus.

This simply contradicts the spirit of the alliance and violates the interests of the participating states. Instead of bringing member states together, it increases strategic uncertainty and vulnerability. Therefore, if the countries really want to build a strong mutually beneficial union, there must be a respite from further integration. It is for this reason that Belarus has proposed a moratorium on any new decisions in the EEU until the implementation of previously reached agreements.

Elections to local councils will be held on 18 February 2018. The state plans to allocate about $10.5m for election funding, but Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka has urged the authorities to save rubles anywhere possible, writes Belarus Segodnia, a daily newspaper. The Chairman of the Central Commission for Elections and Republican Referendums, Lidzija Jarmošyna, announced the government has no obligation to invite international observers to elections to local councils.

Nevertheless, the President underlines the special role of observation and offers a possibility for short-term observation to all foreign diplomats accredited in the Republic of Belarus. Organisations that interact with international structures in the field of local self-government are allowed to invite experts and observers from partner organisations, too. Jarmošyna also said that since business plays an essential role in the life of our country, it should be well represented within local councils.


The Defence Ministry has instituted major changes at the Piečy training centre after a brutal hazing incident allegedly led to the death of private Aliaksandr Koržyč. It ordered the replacement of the junior command staff and sent 20 sergeants from the 3rd and 307th schools to other military units.

Uladzimir Makaraŭ, the press secretary for the Defence Ministry’s Ideology Directorate, assured the public that the transfers will not spread hazing practices. Those who carried out and were involved in the hazing activities are already under investigation. After the death of the soldier, the Investigations Committee (equivalent to the FBI in the United States) opened 15 criminal cases against officers stationed at the Piečy training centre.

New (left) vs old (right) uniform. Photo: sb.byThe Belarusian army changes its uniform. The reform aims to make the uniform more lightweight and practical. Many servicemen will be able don new winter garb in a month. The traditional Soviet hat with ear-flaps known to many generations will be dismissed and replaced with a crocheted hat.

The jacket collar will turn from fur to fleece, which is cheaper and several times lighter. The costly black leather belts will be replaced with protective colour textile belts. In total, the new uniform is lighter by a third. Recent research by the Defence Ministry has shown that lighter and higher quality materials make soldiers more capable.

Public policy

The Belarusian Astraviec nuclear power plant (NPP) successfully passed its stress test. The Emergency Ministry’s Nuclear and Radiation Safety Department has published a national report on the results of a series of stress tests for Astraviec plant, reports Zviazda, a state-owned daily newspaper. The tests checked the resistance of the NPP to threatening phenomena that can hypothetically happen in Belarus: strong winds and squalls, tornadoes, large hail stones, dust storms, strong blizzards, ice, fog, drought, as well as combinations of these phenomena.

According to Department Head Volha Luhoŭskaja, the NPP at Astraviec is resistant to emergency situations similar to Fukushima. The NPP, which is constructed to the latest generation Russian ‘3+ design,” fully meets the highest international safety standards. Belarusian specialists have already submitted the report to the European Group for the Supervision of Nuclear Safety and the European Commission for international review.

Belarus improves its anti-corruption record. An interdepartmental conference at the Academy of Public Administration discussed anti-corruption law application and its further improvement in Belarus. Transparency International states that in the corruption perception index, Belarus rose from 107th place to 79th in 2016. A survey of Belarusian economists conducted among small and medium-sized businesses shows that the actual rating of the country is much higher and is at the level of Poland, Lithuania and Slovenia.

The Astraviec nuclear power plant. Photo:

One newspaper claimed that international experts regard Belarusian anti-corruption legislation as some of the most progressive and effective in the world. Prosecutor General Aliaksandr Kaniuk pointed out that the country is currently implementing policies that minimise corruption: limiting state interference in business, easing firefighting, sanitary, environmental and other requirements, abolishing administrative checks, simplifying procedures for obtaining certificates, approvals, and other permits.

 Can the Belarusian language play a greater role in society? On 11 November, Belarus Segodnia held a roundtable  on the Belarusian language, featuring both pro-governmental figures dealing with the language policy (MP Ihar Marzaliuk, ideologist Vadzim Hihin, Iryna Bulaŭkina from the Ministry of Education) and nationalists from the opposition (artist Mikola Kupava and historian Lieanid Lyč). The participants agreed that the vast majority of Belarusians want to live in an independent country, and no Belarusian nation and statehood is possible without the Belarusian language, history and cultural heritage.

The opposition speakers claimed that the role of the Belarusian language can be improved only through its wider use at the highest levels of education. Officials responded that forced Belarusianisation will lead to its rejection by the citizens, and therefore soft methods should be used in this process.

The state press digest is based on the review of state-controlled publications in Belarus. Freedom of the press in Belarus remains restricted and state media convey primarily the point of view of the Belarusian authorities. This review attempts to give the English-speaking audience a better understanding of how Belarusian state media shape public opinion in the country.

Belarus and Moldova: cooperation despite opposing geopolitical orientations

On 6-7 May, Moldova’s Prime Minister Pavel Filip held a supercharged working visit to Belarus, meeting with the country’s top officials, kicking off several events, and discussing a wide range of issues, from trade to culture.

Despite serious recent setbacks in bilateral trade, Moldova remains an important economic partner for Belarus in the post-Soviet space. Unlike Russia, Belarus has no problem with Moldova's geopolitical orientation towards Europe, instead trying to use this factor to its advantage.

Will the recent election of the pro-Russian politician Igor Dodon to the Moldovan presidency affect the two countries’ economic cooperation?

Welcoming another advocate for Belarus in Europe

Pavel Filip received a warm welcome from President Alexander Lukashenka in Minsk. The Belarusian leader thanked ‘brotherly Moldova’ for explaining to ‘some zealous politicians in Europe what Belarus is and what our policy is’. Lukashenka promised to keep Belarus’s market open to products from Moldova, provided they adhere to high-quality standards.

Belarusian and Moldovan officials discussed trade and economic cooperation in detail during the 18th meeting of the joint intergovernmental commission. Filip also attended the BELAGRO agricultural trade show in Minsk. Twenty-two companies from Moldova promoted their wine, fruit, and vegetables at a 100-sq.m. stand dedicated to Moldova and sponsored by the Belarusian government.

The Moldovan Prime Minister also held a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Andrei Kabiakou; they emphasised cooperation in the spheres of building and road construction, agriculture, and industrial assembly. The two officials also kicked off the Days of Moldovan Culture in Belarus.

Belarus does not object to Moldova’s European choice

Despite their relatively strong economic ties and shared history in the Soviet Union, there have been relatively few high-level contacts between the two countries’ executive authorities since their independence. Alexander Lukashenka visited Chisinau in August 1995 and received his Moldovan counterpart Petru Lucinschi in Minsk in June 2000.

Later, after two visits to Minsk by former Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev in August 2001 and October 2005, there was a nine-year hiatus in high-level interaction, not counting irregular meetings on the sidelines of CIS summits. Finally, Lukashenka returned to Chisinau in September 2014 followed by Andrei Kabiakou in October 2016. Nicolae Timofti, the then Moldovan President, paid an official visit to Belarus in July 2015.

Interestingly, this reinvigoration of high-level contacts between Belarus and Moldova is happening against a backdrop of worsening relations between Chisinau and Moscow. In 2013-2014, Russia, unhappy with Moldova’s decision to enter into an association agreement with the European Union, introduced a ban on imports of Moldovan wine, fruit, and fruit and vegetable preserves.

In 2014 in Chisinau, Lukashenka reassured the Moldovan public that the signing and ratification of the association agreement would not affect the latter's relations with Belarus: ‘Don't dramatise… We need to create new forms and look for new ways of cooperating’.

Indeed, Belarus opened its market to Moldovan food products. Thus, in 2014, the imports of apples from Moldova to Belarus increased more than eleven-fold compared to 2013: from 5,600 to 63,900 tonnes. A large part of these Moldovan apples surely found their way to the forbidden Russian market. Total imports from Moldova to Belarus subsequently grew dramatically: from $91.8m to $149.6m.

‘During a gruelling time for us, Belarus has extended a helping hand in a very open, sincere, and friendly manner, for example, a few years ago, when we had some problems with some markets in CIS countries. We will not forget it’, Pavel Filip said about that period at his recent meeting with Lukashenka.

Will the golden age in trade return?

The golden age for trade between Belarus and Moldova lasted several years during the early 2010s and reached its peak in 2014. Last year, the turnover returned to its 2007 level. In 2016, Belarusian exports to Moldova reached their lowest point in the last decade.

The turnover continued to fall in the first quarter of 2017, contracting by 35% to the same period of the previous year. However, Belarusian officials are encouraged by increasing exports (up by 52%).

Belarus exports several dozen product groups to Moldova: petroleum and chemical products, tractors, motor vehicles, ceramic tiles, and glass fibre dominate exports. Imports are essentially limited to fruit and vegetables (fresh and preserved), wine, and spirits.

Petroleum products amounted to over half of Belarusian exports to Moldova in the peak years of 2013-2014. However, the abrupt drop in supply in 2015 upset bilateral trade. Nevertheless, it is fair to note that the sales decrease affected most product groups including tractors, the second-largest export group in trade with Moldova.

Currently, eighty-seven companies operate in Moldova with the participation of Belarusian capital, including flagship projects of knockdown assembly plants of Belarusian trolleybuses and tractors. Now, the Belarusian government is hoping to launch a knockdown assembly plant of Belarusian MAZ buses in Chisinau in late 2017.

Will Lukashenka’s fan in Moldova help to increase bilateral trade?

Igor Dodon, the recently elected Moldovan president who sympathises with Russia, has an affection for Lukashenka. He called the latter ‘an example for [Moldova] … in preserv[ing] all the best things from the USSR’. ‘The economy works like a clock, and there is a rigid vertical of power [in Belarus]’, Dodon said in an interview to Deutsche Welle.

Belarus supported Dodon’s application for observer status at the Eurasian Economic Union, which was approved by the member states in April 2017. The head of Moldova’s executive branch, Pavel Filip, seems to harbour no grudge against the Belarusian government for having supported this initiative, which he called ‘a symbolic gesture’ with no legal consequences.

Lukashenka and Dodon met in Bishek, Kyrgyzstan on 14 April, on the sidelines of the Eurasian Economic Council. According to Dodon, Lukashenka advised him to hold a referendum on introducing a presidential republic in Moldova to give the country's leader more power, according to the examples of Russia and Belarus.

Dodon also announced in April that he would soon come to Belarus on Lukashenka’s invitation. The visit is tentatively scheduled for 13-14 July.

Dodon’s activities as the new President of Moldova have apparently failed to affect Belarusian-Moldovan relations in any way, be it positive or negative. Dodon has little real power in the parliamentary republic, and Belarus prefers to work with those in charge.

Even if he succeeds in bringing Moldova back to the ‘Russian world’, it would hardly help to strengthen Belarus’s economic position in Moldova. Thus, despite its apparent fondness for rhetoric about integration and Soviet nostalgia, Belarus remains quite pragmatic in its economic dealings.

Belarus has obtained gas and oil concessions from Russia: but what did Russia get in exchange?

After a meeting with Alexander Lukashenka on 3 April in Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin announced that all oil and gas issues between the two countries had been resolved.

The media in Belarus reported on the Kremlin's concessions extensively. However, what Minsk will provide in return remains unclear. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenka provided a clue when he said that the summit dealt more with security than with energy issues.

Moscow indeed wants closer collaboration with Minsk in the realms of security and foreign policy. On 31 March, before the summit, Russia's Security Council held a meeting on Russian-Belarusian relations. The two governments clearly chose to resolve the issues critical to each of them: Russian gas and oil supplies for Minsk, Belarusian security and foreign policy cooperation for Moscow.

Nevertheless, numerous other issues continue to undermine relations with Russia. Now, even leading experts in the Belarusian government doubt the utility of Moscow-led Eurasian integration in its current form.

Horse trading between Minsk and Moscow

Assessments of the results of the Petersburg summit differed starkly among Belarusian and Russian media sources and analysts. For instance, the Russian liberal daily Kommersant argued that Moscow had ceded almost every possible position, and implied that Lukashenka came out on top. Meanwhile, many Belarusian analysts, such as Dzyanis Melyantsou, insisted that Minsk must have given something valuable to Moscow in exchange.

The media reported extensively on what the Kremlin agreed to give to Minsk: Russia will offer Belarus a discount on gas beginning in 2018 and resume petroleum supplies to Belarus at previous volumes.

However, a clue to what Minsk agreed to in exchange was provided by Lukashenka himself when he announced that national security issues were the most important subject of discussion at the summit.

Why now?

Although this solution to the dispute had already been voiced last summer, it was only now that Russian leadership made the proposal. Two major international developments are likely to have influenced Putin's move.

The first is the geopolitical situation in the region. With Russia's hopes that Trump would be more acquiescent dashed and tensions in Eastern European as high as ever, Moscow needs a less recalcitrant Minsk to deal with numerous urgent problems.

In particular, Moscow needs Minsk to host a massive military power show, the military exercise West-2017. So far, Belarusian officials have downplayed the confrontational aspects of the exercise, emphasising the necessity of transparency. Minsk is extremely averse to further challenging Russia's opponents in this way.

Second, Moscow would probably like to put a stop to Minsk's latest attempt to bring non-Russian oil to the region through a regional cooperation scheme. Minsk has already succeeded in quietly bringing in Azerbaijani oil, and has recently started to purchase Iranian oil as well. In both endeavours it collaborated with Ukraine; in the latter it may even have had the help of Poland. The current Russian leadership has bones to pick with both these countries.

However problematic the results of these efforts may seem at the moment, they are not hopeless. The efficiency of such oil schemes could increase if Belarus succeeds in making its diversification attempts a collective project undertaken together with other countries of the region. Minsk understands this: its deals with Ukraine and contacts with other countries prove it.

Moreover, as Lukashenka revealed in an interview on Mir TV on 7 April, the Belarusian government was preparing to import non-Russian petroleum within the country as well:

We will soon complete the modernisation of our refineries … As soon as this is finished, the output of white oil products at our refineries will reach 95%, so the problem of petroleum [imports] will disappear by itself. We will be able to buy oil from anywhere, recycle it within the country, and make appropriate profits. The Russians also realise this.

Belarusian officials doubt the value of Eurasian integration

The most recent oil and gas dispute between the two countries lasted more than a year. Over the course of the feud, the Belarusian government took several eyebrow-raising demarches: Lukashenka refused to participate in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summits in December, and Belarus would not sign the Customs Code of the EAEU last year.

The director of the government-affiliated Economy Institute of the Belarusian Academy of Sciences, Valery Belski, harshly criticised Eurasian integration in an article written on 13 March for the largest Belarusian internet portal As he proclaimed, 'the value of the Eurasian Union for Belarus decreases if the prices for energy resources are not made closer [to domestic Russian prices]'.

This sentiment neatly encapsulates the conclusions the Belarusian government is drawing from its dispute with the Kremlin. For instance, Belarusian prime minister Andrei Kabyakou on 7 March emphasised that the difference in natural gas prices paid in Belarus and Russia had grown from 38% in early 2014 to 110% in 2016.

This makes Belarusian enterprises less competitive, as their products become more expensive than Russian ones. And that, of course, contradicts the agreements on Eurasian integration.

Disputes between Minsk and Moscow increase

The gas dispute also brought other matters of contention to the forefront: reduced oil supplies, disputes over Belarusian food exports, Russia's border checks with Belarus, replacement of Belarusian details in Russian industrial products, limiting access of Belarusian firms to Russian defence programmes, etc all hinder bilateral relations. Many of these problems have been festering for years.

What's more, Minsk points out that many of these issues are of a political rather than economic nature. Agricultural exports to Russia is a case in point. In November 2016, Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian government agency which oversees agriculture, announced that it had discovered bacteria in meat imported from the Belarusian Vitsebsk Broiler Poultry Factory. It promptly banned all products from the firm on the Russian market.

In February 2017, however, Rossekhoznadzor allowed products from the same Vitsebsk firm to be presented at the Prodexpo-2017 exhibition in Moscow and awarded them prizes for high quality. Nevertheless, Rosselkhoznadzor refused to remove restrictions on Vitsebsk poultry products in Russia.

Similar problems exist elsewhere. As anonymous representatives of the Belarusian defence industries commented to Kommersant daily, 'in spite of all agreements, we remain strangers in the Russian state defence order. And the state defence order in Russia includes many categories of products: from table lamps and fabrics to trolleybuses.'

In short, Belarusian-Russian relations suffer from more fundamental problems than simply trade disputes between close allies. At the Saint Petersburg summit, the two governments resolved the most urgent issues in the energy and security spheres. However, numerous other problems persist, despite long years of declared integration. For this, the political attitudes of the Kremlin bare much of the blame. New disputes between Minsk and Moscow are sure to arise in the future.

Lukashenka and Putin, justifying repression, EEU economy back on track – Belarus state press digest

Lukashenka and Putin agreed to resolve all critical problems in bilateral relations, including the oil and gas dispute. Belarus realises its largest ever investment project abroad – a potash plant in Turkmenistan.

The official media resoundingly condemns protests against the 'social parasite tax'. Lukashenka approves the creation of a public security monitoring system in Belarus.

The number of young men attempting to avoid military conscription in Mahilioŭ Region increases. Belarus tractor manufacturers continue to face difficulties. The Eurasian Economic Union recovers from economic recession.

This and more in the new edition of the Belarus state press digest.

Foreign policy

Lukashenka and Putin agree to resolve all critical problems in bilateral relations. The leaders of the two countries met in St. Petersburg on 3 April, writes Zviazda. According to Putin, both sides agreed to settle the oil and gas dispute within 10 days. They have been able to reach a compromise and are offering mutual concessions for the 2017-2019 period. Russia has also agreed to refinance Belarus's existing debt to the Russian Federation, promising to re-examine the ban on Belarusian food exports to Russia. Lukashenka, however, informed the public that: 'we did not start talks with oil and gas issues. The main focus was the security of our states… We agreed on cooperation in security'.

Belarus completes its largest investment project abroad. Lukashenka visited Turkmenistan on 30 March for the inauguration of the Garlyk mining and processing plant, which will produce potash fertiliser. The project was fully realised by Belarusian specialists and became the largest project of its kind ever completed abroad by Belarus. According to Lukashenka, Belarus has demonstrated to the world that it can do anything; this is because Belarus has not squandered the powerful scientific and technological potential it inherited from the USSR. The plant is expected to produce 1.5m tonnes of potash annually and become one of the world’s largest exporters.

Domestic politics and security

Major media holding Belarus Segodnia published a variety of material criticising the activities of the opposition during the 'social parasite tax' protests and Freedom Day celebration on 25 March. It wrote that the demonstrations were illegal and Minsk residents should not get caught up in provocation; Belarusians should instead attend other cultural and sporting events held on the same day.

The newspaper published numerous 'letters to the editor' condemning the protests

The journalists emphasised the professionalism of riot police and accused the organisers of the demonstrations of fabricating footage for the world media rather than discussing public problems. The newspaper published numerous 'letters to the editor' condemning the protests. It also interviewed several refugees from the Donbass residing in Belarus, who argued that Belarusians should value the peace and stability in their country and not engage in protests.

There will be no colour revolution in Belarus. Colour revolutions stem from foreign interference in the form of various non-governmental foundations and non-profit organisations, writes Narodnaja Hazieta. In such countries, governments themselves were highly dependent on foreign aid. In Belarus, however, the situation is fundamentally different. The democratically elected president was quick to restrict the operations of such organisations.

The state has also managed to maintain control of the media and humanitarian sectors from the get go. A whole generation of Belarusians has been raised in a country without a massive influx of imported political values. The established social contract between the state and society has created a powerful social base which supports the authorities. The Belarusian economy, although experiencing transitional difficulties, can hardly be called weak, due to its industrial giants and booming IT sector.

Lukashenka approves the creation of a public security monitoring system in Belarus. Such systems operate in many countries, where they have already proved their effectiveness, writes Belarus Segodnia. The introduction of automated processes of threat detection and data analysis will significantly increase the level of public security. In addition, the system will go a long ways towards reducing the amount of workers and resources involved in relevant areas, thus optimising the structure of state bodies. According to Interior Minister Ihar Šunievič, video surveillance will be installed in 2,000-4,000 places within a year or two. For private businesses and citizens, this will certainly not be an imposition, but rather an opportunity.

Number of young men attempting to dodge the draft grows in Mahilioŭ Region. According to the regional prosecutor's office, this trend can be explained by inadequate military and patriotic education for youth, reports Belarus Segodnia.

Some districts provide such education on paper only. Others do not organise meetings between military officers and young people at all, and schoolchildren never visit military bases. Many schools lack the facilities for pre-army training, such as shooting ranges, training camps, arms models, and more. On top of that, police and military conscription offices often fail to pursue conscripts who do not declare themselves following personal notification, and military bodies do not cooperate enough with the police.


Belarus tractor producers continue to face difficulties. Despite the fact that the Belarusian tractor giant MTZ held 80% of the Russia market in 2012, in 2016 it only managed to retain around 40%, reports Sielskaja Hazieta. Since 2013, Russian producers have developed rapidly, tripling production by 2016.

For this reason, Belarus is trying to mitigate its dependence on the Russian market – an endeavour president Alexander Lukashenka is personally involved in. For example, after his visit to Pakistan in 2016, the country purchased 25% more Belarusian tractors than it had in 2015. Despite these difficulties, MTZ hopes to increase sales and has recently presented its products in the UK.

Eurasian Economic Union recovers from economic recession. Zviazda interviewed the Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Tatiana Volovaya. In 2016 the GDP of the EEU decreased by only 0.1% – much better than the 2.3% drop in 2015. Moreover, the GDPs of Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have grown.

Trade within the EEU has grown since January 2016 and was 38% higher in January 2017. The Eurasian Economic Commission predicts 0.9% growth in the EEU in 2017. It expects the positive trend to continue in 2018-2019. As for Belarus, it shows the highest potential in metallurgy, machine building, the chemical industry, and logistical services.

The state press digest is based on review of state-controlled publications in Belarus. Freedom of the press in Belarus remains restricted and state media convey primarily the point of view of the Belarusian authorities. This review attempts to give the English-speaking audience a better understanding of how Belarusian state media shape public opinion in the country.

Will the Kremlin topple Lukashenka?

On 20 January, Alexander Lukashenka described the reactions of Russian officials to the introduction of the new five-day visa-free regime in Belarus as 'groans and wails.'

Recently, rhetoric surrounding Russian-Belarusian relations has become so sharp that some journalists and analysts believe the Kremlin plans to overthrow Aliaksandr Lukashenka or occupy Belarus.

However, off and on conflict remains a fixture of Belarusian-Russian relations. Despite belligerent grumbling, Lukashenka mostly upholds the Kremlin's interests, promoting cooperation between the two countries.

Would the Kremlin replace Lukashenka and occupy Belarus?

In recent months, people of different political views and backgrounds have begun to voice concerns that the Kremlin plans to replace Lukashenka.

On 4 January, the chief editor of the Belarusian oppositional news source Charter 97 Natallia Radzina stated that 'Russia is currently conducting an operation to depose Lukashenka.' Her colleague Dzmitry Bandarenka had spoken about the existence of documents that prove the existence of a plan to replace Lukashenka a few days earlier.

Meanwhile, on 11 January analysts Arsen Sivitski and Yuri Tsarik, who have warmer attitudes towards the Belarusian authorities, published a report claiming that Russia is considering occupying Belarus. Their conclusion was based on information regarding the Russian Ministry of Defence's plans to send four thousand railway carriages to Belarus next year, which is 83 times more than in 2016.

Although these two claims are coming from very different ideological backgrounds, both sides believe the Kremlin is angry because of Belarus's refusal to support the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine as well as its resistance towards the idea of a Russian base on its territory. Moreover, they believe the Kremlin is angry enough to attempt to get rid of Lukashenka. However, Russia has little chance of replacing the Belarusian president: unlike Ukraine, Belarus has stable public institutions.

Relations in conflict

These speculations do indeed seem to hold water given the present condition of Belarusian-Russian relations. Lately, it seems that Belarus and Russia are butting heads on just about every issue.

On 20 January, Lukashenka publicly responded to the criticism Russian officials, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, regarding the introduction of a visa-free regime in Belarus. The Russian government sees this new policy as a threat to its security and hinted that Belarus should create a single visa space with Russia, instead of taking such steps on its own. However, according to Lukashenka, 'they should accept this calmly and focus on their own work.'

One month prior, on 26 December 2016, Lukashenka ignored the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union, where Union heads of state signed the Customs Code, which members had discussed for three years. Although the code was signed by all other members on 26 December, the president of Belarus only agreed to approve it two days later on condition of further negotiations.

It is no secret that the Belarusian authorities are hindering the Eurasian integration project because of the oil and gas conflict between Minsk and Moscow, which has now dragged on for more than a year. Minsk demands a reduction in the price of gas while Russia seeks to make Belarus pay back their debt for previous deliveries, now amounting to $400 m. In order to encourage Minsk to pay, Moscow plans to reduce its supply of oil to Belarus by 12%, according to claims by Russian business newspaper Kommersant from 9 January.

On 26 December, Uladzimir Andreichanka, the head of the lower chamber of the Belarusian parliament, stated in Moscow that 'the situation at the Belarusian-Russian border goes beyond the contractual framework and common sense.' In mid-September, the Kremlin closed its border with Belarus for third-country nationals without any prior notice – thus ruining Minsk's plans of becoming a transit country.

Belarus's list of grievances is quite long: Belarusian officials periodically complain about Russia implementing protectionist measures, or that the Russian media and commentators are portraying Belarus in a bad light. On 22 December, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry even recalled a Russian diplomat to protest statements by the head of the Russian Strategic Research Institute questioning Belarusian sovereignty.

Moscow and Minsk fluctuate between love and war

If the present misunderstandings between the two countries were a reason to overthrow Lukashenka or occupy Belarus, the Kremlin would have already done so dozens of times, as the countries have already been through many similar conflicts. But despite all the animosity between Lukashenka and Putin, the Belarusian leader remains simply a difficult ally for the Kremlin – not an enemy.

Belarus-Russia relations after the Ukraine conflict​ Moscow will keep Minsk in its sphere of influence for a long time, given the great political and economic significance that Belarus has for Russia. ​

Even given the conflict in Ukraine, the Belarusian government is less pro-Ukrainian than it lets on. According to information published by Radio Liberty on 4 January, a Belarusian militant fighting against Ukraine in Donbass, who has killed dozens of Ukrainians, freely visits Belarus. The KGB has invited him for talks, but has not opened a criminal case. Previously, Belarusian KGB officials stated that they would prosecute Belarusians who join the fight in Ukraine, on either the Ukrainian or the Russian side. However, evidence shows that the Belarusian authorities remain reluctant to initiate criminal cases.

Although Belarus's rejection of a Russian military base on its territory was certainly painful for the Kremlin, Belarus managed recover from the conflict by announcing the launch of an Integrated Regional Antiaircraft Defense System. Belarusian diplomats have repeatedly refused to support a UN resolution that would have condemned Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Although the Belarusian authorities are making small steps towards promoting their own culture, which Russian nationalists seem so afraid of, Russian culture and media still dominate in Belarus. When Russian television broadcasts reports about a possible re-orientation of Belarus to the West, Belarusian authorities do not block them. Even the recent arrests of several Belarusophobic authors seem relatively insignificant compared to Kazakhstan, where the authorities have consistently been condemning pro-Russian activists for several years now.

Neither does Belarus intend to undermine Eurasian economic integration, as Belarus needs this market to sell its own manufacture goods, while Western countries remain primarily interested in Belarusian petrol. Minsk is slowing down Eurasian integration to gain concessions from the Russian side, as the Belarusian economic system exists thanks to Russian energy 'subsidies'.

This new iteration of the off and on Belarus-Russia conflict is hardly unique, albeit with one exception. Russia has started to count money and seems reluctant to give Belarus handouts, demanding more loyalty from Belarus. However, this is a far cry from replacing Lukashenka or occupying Belarus.

Belarusians in the Forbes rating, no autonomy for the Belarus Orthodox Church – Belarus state press digest

Minsk views a normalisation of relations with the EU as being in its national interest. The Russian World cannot be a political factor in Belarus, according to the Metropolitan of the Belarusian Orthodox Church.

The economic recession has reached its lowest point, and in 2018 the Belarusian economy will once a gain experience growth. Russian economic policies towards Belarus are creating obstacles for Eurasian integration. Several Belarusian IT entrepreneurs appeared in the '30 under 30' Forbes rating.

The city of Hrodna sees a rise in the tourism sector as a result of the new visa-free regime. The government reduces the cost of visas to Belarus.

All this and more in the new edition of the Belarus state press digest.

Politics and foreign policy

Minsk seeks to build bridges between regional actors. Narodnaja Hazieta publishes an interview with Andrej Rusakovič, chairman of the Centre for Foreign Policy and Security Studies, on the dynamics of Belarus-EU relations in 2016.

Consistent normalisation of relations with the EU is in the national interest of Belarus, as this enhances economic development and strengthens Belarus's global position. The fact that Belarus currently holds the Presidency in the Central European Initiative and the 2017 OSCE Parliamentary Session is to be held in Minsk means that the EU has recognised Belarus's achievements in shaping a stable and lasting security system in the region.

Belarus's geopolitical position makes it dependent on EU-Russia relations. Therefore, Minsk seeks to build bridges between various European associations and institutions in spite of the historical, economic and cultural differences between the countries of the region.

The Russian World cannot be a political factor in Belarus. Belarus Segodnia discusses the recent comments of Metropolitan Pavel of the Belarusian Orthodox Church and the arrest of several pro-Russian journalists. The Metropolitan spoke of the 'Russian World' not as a political factor, but as a cultural and spiritual space. The newspaper adds that today some adherents to this idea propagate the armed defence of all those who identify as Russian but live outside Russia.

people with Russian roots work everywhere in Belarus, from road workers to the head of the Council of Ministers. 

The author argues that this idea has no potential in Belarus, since people with Russian roots work everywhere in the country, ranging from road workers to the head of the Council of Ministers. The newspaper stresses that incitement of ethnic hatred is a crime, and the arrest of pro-Russian journalists should not be considered a restriction of free speech, as some media debates suggest.


Economic recession hits bottom, 2018 will see growth. Respublika discusses the prospects for the Belarusian economy in 2017. In a recently published macroeconomics review, Sberbank of Russia noted that the economic recession in Belarus is grinding to a halt; this has been the case for three consecutive months now. According to a World Bank report, 2017 will still be uneasy for Belarus, but the worst of the recession has already passed and 2018 will see visible growth.

The government points to the 11% inflation rate as its main success in 2016, and hopes to drive it below 10% in 2017. It foresees a 1.7% GDP growth for 2017. Major growth factors will include global oil prices and the state of economy of Russia, Belarus's dominant trade partner. A forecast of the Russian economy predicts zero growth, so Belarus can hardly expect anything better, the newspaper concludes.

Russian economic policies towards Belarus create obstacles to Eurasian integration. Negotiations on supplies of Russian gas to Belarus lasted for almost a year, writes Narodnaja Hazieta. Back in spring, falling oil prices and a significant devaluation of the Russian ruble made Minsk claim $73 dollars per thousand cubic metres as a fair price for Russian gas.

However, Russia continued to demand $132 and went on to cut oil supplies to Belarus to be extra persuasive, which immediately affected Belarusian budget revenues. Such behaviour contradicts the basic principles of the Eurasian Union, which promise equal prices and conditions for all members.

A food safety conflict came as another serious blow to bilateral relations. At the moment, the Russian food control agency Rosselkhoznadzor has placed limits on exports from 20 Belarusian agricultural enterprises to the Russian market. The author concludes that a union does not make sense if it fails to meet the interests of all parties.

Belarusian IT entrepreneurs appear in the Forbes '30 under 30' rating. Jaŭhien Nieŭhień and Siarhiej Hančar made it into the Forbes '30 under 30' ranking, which lists 600 of the brightest young entrepreneurs, breakout talents, and agents of change in 20 different sectors. The two Belarusian were included in the Consumer Technologies category, reports Belarus Segodnia.

According to the magazine, 'When Facebook wanted to catch up with Snapchat, it turned to two entrepreneurs from Belarus. Nieŭhień and Hančar built MSQRD, an app which adds crazy filters to selfies. After the app caught on in the U.S., Facebook bought MSQRD for an undisclosed amount in March 2016. Since then, both co-founders have been working for Facebook in London'.

Tourism and visas

The city of Hrodna sees a rise in the tourism sector thanks to the new visa-free regime. The visa-free regime in Hrodna Region has been in effect for two months now. Around 2,200 tourists have already taken advantage of the opportunity to visit Belarus over this period. In the end of 2016, the Hrodna City Executive Committee met to discuss what has already been done and how to attract more foreigners, writes Hrodzienskaja Praŭda.

The recently created website informs potential travellers about border crossing procedures and the tourist attractions in the region. The authorities have already installed signs on the boundaries of the visa-free zone and modified the working hours of museums, currency exchanges, and other tourist spots. They also drafted a schedule of events for 2017, which includes more than three hundred festivals, celebrations and other brand activities.

Meanwhile, tourist companies and attractions are hurrying to translate their facilities into foreign languages and introduce wifi networks.

The government reduces the cost of visas to Belarus. On 1 January 2017 Belarus introduced new consular fees for issuing visas, writes Belarus Segodnia. Now, individual visas will cost €60, regardless of the number of entries, while a group visa will cost only €10 per person.

Previously, foreign visitors had to pay €150 for D-type visa, €120 for a multiple C visa, and €60 for a one-time visa. Citizens of Poland and Lithuania could acquire visas for half the price: €25 and €60 respectively. According to new regulations they will also enjoy lower rates than other countries, while citizens of Japan and Serbia will be completely exempt from consular fees.

The state press digest is based on review of state-controlled publications in Belarus. Freedom of the press in Belarus remains restricted and state media convey primarily the point of view of the Belarusian authorities. This review attempts to give the English-speaking audience a better understanding of how Belarusian state media shape public opinion in the country.

Protectionism in EEU, New Ministry, Organised Crime – State Press Digest

In the first half of June, official newspapers in Belarus focused mostly on economic affairs.

Belarus-Russian cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union continues to suffer from protectionism and exemptions in trade and prices, particularly in hydrocarbons.

Belarus will establish the Ministry of Antitrust Regulation and Trade to manage the growing liberalisation of the national economy. Belarus presents its armoured vehicle at the international arms exhibition.

Belarusian schoolchildren will be offered extracurricular programming courses, introduced to enhance national potential in the IT sector. Organised crime groups become more active as the region experiences instability. This and more in the new edition of State Press Digest.


Eurasian Economic Union suffers from protectionism. Minsk hosted the Third Forum of Belarusian and Russian Regions under the auspices of Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin. As Belarus Segodnya noted, despite the social and humanitarian theme of the forum the presidents talked mostly about economic matters.

Lukashenka emphasised that the countries need to develop a single industrial policy and remove all barriers in bilateral trade; at the moment the EEU states often employ protectionism as anti-crisis strategy. In response Putin only answered that “Russia is interested in increasing food imports from Belarus”.

Russia is reluctant to cut gas price for Belarus. The newspaper Respublika criticises the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom for its persistent reluctance to reduce current gas prices. A previous attempt by Belarus to negotiate the issue with Gazprom at a recent EEU summit failed. Despite the common EEU market, trade within the union involves a number of exemptions.

Trade in hydrocarbons remains most sensitive for Belarus, which remains heavily dependent on Russian energy resources. The newspaper claims that in this way Gazprom is trying to raise funds for its major project – a gas pipe to China, as Europe increasingly diversifies its supplies to avoid dependence on Russia.


Belarus will establish a Ministry of Antitrust Regulation and Trade. The main reason for this change is liberalisation of economy, according to Minister of Trade Uladzimir Kaltovič, quoted in Zviazda. He specifically mentions the removal of price regulation implemented this January. As free competition on the market increases, the risk of emerging trusts grows.

The current governmental body in this area, as well as its policies, lags behind Belarus's partners in the Eurasian Economic Union. The Ministry will be restructured according to new functions, and local trade inspections will be united with antitrust agencies. Moreover, the Ministry plans to update and specify the antitrust law.

Switzerland will invest in Belarusian agriculture. Head of Hrodna region Uladzimir Kraŭcoŭ and Head of Embassy Subdivision of the Swiss Confederation in Minsk Pascal Aebischer met to discuss cooperation between the region and Switzerland, Hrodzienskaja Praŭda reports.

Swiss investors will allocate $4m to a farm with 12,000 pigs in Ščučyn district and $7m to a dairy farm in Smarhoń district. Pascal Ebischer has been visiting Belarusian regions this year to study their business potential. In an overview of bilateral cooperation, the diplomat mentioned that at the moment around 30 Swiss companies operate in Belarus, and trade turnover reached $3m in 2015. 20 Swiss citizens live in Belarus and a few hundred Belarusians study in Switzerland.


Belarus presents its own light-armoured vehicle V-1. Two Belarusian enterprises took part it the international exhibition of arms Eurosatory-2016 with 1,500 defenсe companies from 57 countries participating, writes Belarus SegodniaFor the first time, the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant publicly presented a model of light-armoured vehicle V-1 (Volat).

It is designed for transportation of troops as well as fighting in urban and rural areas and mountainous and impassable territories. The manufacturers took into account the experience of recent local conflicts and anti-terrorist operations, where mines and improvised explosive devices posed particular danger. Therefore, V-1 is heavily mine-protected and has a V-shaped bottom which allows it to dissipate the energy of explosions.


Schoolchildren in Belarus will be offered extracurricular programming courses. In the new school year Belarusian schools will introduce Scratch – an object-oriented visual programming language, designed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology to teach children programming and algorithmic thinking. Schoolchildren will have the opportunity to study physics, mathematics, geography, biology, and even literature with the help of Scratch, writes Znamia Yunosti.

To date, Belarusians are learning the basics of programming later than their European peers, but now the situation is changing. The project will be jointly implemented by the Ministry of Education and High Technologies Park. Six IT companies have already tested it on their employees' children and achieved good results, the newspaper reports.

Helpline for children stopped work due to financial reasons. The national helpline for children and teenagers has not been operating for a few months now, Belarus Segodnia reports. In 2011 the international NGO ‘Understanding’ purchased equipment and established a helpline in the National Centre for Mental Health. The line received around 3,660 calls since its installation and succeeded in preventing 8 suicide attempts and dozens of violent acts annually.

The line stopped because of lack of funds to pay full-time staff, as the doctors of the Centre had to reply to calls during their working hours. The project needs $30,000 a year and ‘Understanding’ leader Andrej Machańko hopes that soon it will resume its work with the help of private charity donations.

Organised criminal groups become more active in environment of regional instability. Chief of the Department of Combating Organised Crime and Corruption of the Interior Ministry, Mikalaj Karpiankoŭ, revealed to Specnaz certain trends of organised crime development in the post-Soviet space and Belarus.

Organised criminal groups unite to become transnational, while professional thieves engage in business and some businessmen become closer to criminals. Some wealthy bosses use money and connexions to try to secure protection within the government. What's more, in recent years Russian gangs have become more active in attempts to increase influence on Belarusian criminal affairs. So far Belarus has been famous as a country with a highly repressive approach towards the so-called thieves in law – the higher strata of criminal bosses in the former USSR space.

The State Press Digest is based on review of state-controlled publications in Belarus. Freedom of the press in Belarus remains restricted and state media convey primarily the point of view of the Belarusian authorities. This review attempts to give the English-speaking audience a better understanding of how Belarusian state media shape public opinion in the country.

Reinforcing the “Remote Arc”, Working Hard at the UN – Belarus Foreign Policy Digest

In April, Belarus and Europe continued re-establishing contact at different levels. Belarus welcomed the Bulgarian foreign minister and senior diplomats from Sweden and Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the institutional level, Minsk and Brussels inaugurated their new dialogue format, the Coordination Group.

Belarus’ economic interests prompted the government to call for stronger relations with the “Remote Arc” countries, in particular, Nigeria and Ghana. In New York, foreign minister Vladimir Makei focused on social issues and development agenda.

Belarus – Europe: the bilateral dimension

On 10-12 April, Bulgarian foreign minister Daniel Mitov paid a working visit to Minsk and met his Belarusian counterpart Vladimir Makei. Mitov stressed Bulgaria’s willingness to contribute to improving Belarus-EU relations but emphasised the need for respect of human rights in Belarus.

Mitov came to Belarus not only in his national capacity but also as the current chairman of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe. Minsk is interested in greater involvement of Belarusian parliamentarians in the work of this organisation. In this context, Mitov met Vladimir Andreichenko, the chairman of the lower house of the Belarusian parliament.

Belarus and Sweden continued to strengthen their bilateral ties, which are now close to full normalisation after the teddy bear airdrop incident in 2012. On 31 March-1 April, state secretary for foreign affairs Annika Söder met Vladimir Makei and his deputy Alena Kupchyna in Minsk. It was the first visit of a Swedish official to Belarus at such a level for 25 years. Söder also met Belarusian opposition leaders.

On 22 April, Belarus and Bosnia and Herzegovina held their first political consultations at the deputy foreign minister level since 2007.

In Minsk, Alena Kupchyna and Josip Brkić focused on further development of the two countries’ trade relations. Belarus and Bosnia and Herzegovina have so far been unable to establish the bilateral trade commission provided for in their trade agreement of 2004.

The parties also discussed regional cooperation, as Bosnia and Herzegovina holds the presidency of the Central European Initiative (CEI) in 2015. Belarus recently downgraded the level of its participation in this regional forum despite the fact that most of the Belarusian government’s sympathisers in Europe (such as Austria, Hungary, Italy, Slovenia etc.) also participate in the CEI.

Belarus – Europe: the institutional dimension

In Brussels on 6-7 April, Belarus and the European Union launched a new format of bilateral dialogue, the EU-Belarus Coordination Group. This informal negotiation platform emerged as a follow-up to the Interim Phase on modernisation issues. Alena Kupchyna and Deputy Secretary General for the External Action Service Helga Schmid headed the respective delegations.

Belarus and the EU identified eleven priorities for the dialogue, with trade, investment, environment and infrastructure dominating the agenda. However, the parties have also been discussing the establishment of a national institute for human rights in Belarus. The EU will sponsor a workshop on this issue in Minsk later this year.

Representatives of Belarusian civil society participated in one session of the coordination group and were able to comment on the dialogue’s priorities. Belarus’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs validated each candidature.

The Konrad Adenauer Foundation financed a trip of a team of Belarusian officials and experts to Brussels on 18-21 April. They discussed security and defence issues with officials from NATO, the European Parliament and the European External Action Service as well as think tanks.

Makei works hard in New York

On 20-22 April, Makei was in New York on an extremely tight schedule. There, he signed the Paris Climate Agreement on behalf of Belarus and spoke at the United Nations' special high-level events on sustainable development goals and drug trafficking.

The minister opened a photo exhibition at the UN headquarters dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster. He also met his counterparts from Argentina, Costa Rica, Singapore and Tajikistan as well as high UN officials.

Finally, Makei participated in the first-ever high-level meeting of the Eastern European Group (EEG). Belarus chairs the group in April. The uniqueness of the EEG is that it assembles the countries which belong to competing economic and military blocs in Europe.

Normally, the EEG’s role has been limited to deciding on the distribution of seats at various UN bodies and performing other procedural functions at the organisation. Lately, Belarus has been working on uniting the EEG’s members behind the common agenda of UN reform and strengthening the group’s role and visibility at the UN.

In recent years, Belarusian diplomats have successfully moved from a reactive response to the UN agenda set by others to identifying and pursuing the country’s priorities in multilateral diplomacy.

Reinforcing the “Remote Arc”

Deputy foreign minister Valentin Rybakov made a tour in Western Africa, visiting Nigeria on 4-5 April and Ghana on 6-7 April.

The political consultations between the foreign ministries were held both in Abudja and Accra. However, trade relations and academic training of African students in Belarus remain at the top of Belarus’ agenda in its relations with Nigeria and Ghana.

Rybakov came to Africa accompanied by Belarusian manufacturers of agricultural and transport machinery. Minsk is seeking to develop local assembly of its tractors in Nigeria and trucks in Ghana.

On 14 April, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenka, on the sidelines of the summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, met the leaders of Afghanistan, Indonesia, Qatar and Pakistan, with trade and manufacturing cooperation the focus of the discussions.

On 21-24 April, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, visited Minsk. She met Prime Minister Andrei Kobiakov and first deputy foreign minister Alexander Mikhnevich.

Belarus has rather a limited diplomatic presence in Africa. Cooperation with the African Union may help to enter the African markets and participate in pan-African economic and technical cooperation programmes.

In late April, Belarusian officials also discussed the development of trade relations with Sudan in Minsk and Qatar in Doha in the format of the bilateral cooperation commissions.

Lukashenka recently instructed his government and Belarusian diplomats on the need to achieve a new balance in Belarusian exports. They should be equally distributed – one third each – among the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the EU and other countries, including the so called “Remote Arc” countries (Africa, Asia and Latin America).

Currently, the share of the EEU in Belarusian exports stands at over 42 per cent, with the EU at 32 per cent. This means that the share of the “Remote Arc” will have to grow significantly at the expense of Russia and other EEU members.

Belarus between EU and EEU, New Opposition Strategy – Digest of Belarusian Analytics

Over the past month analysts discussed continuing rapprochement of Belarus with the West and potential Russia’s responses to it. Meanwhile, influenced by Russian propaganda, Belarusians favour Eurasian integration over European, although official Minsk finds its result unsatisfactory.

Belarusian opposition changes its strategy in relations with the authorities and plans to push them to negotiations with backing of mass street pressure. However, a Ukrainian sociologist predicts that democracy in Belarus will come not earlier than in 50 years and conditions for a Maidan do not exist there. This and more in the new Digest of Belarusian Analytics.

Foreign policy

Belarus in the EAEC: a Year Later (Disappointing Results and Doubtful Prospects) – This report was presented in Minsk on March 22, by the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. The report is devoted to the analysis of the first year of existence of the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) for Belarus. Among the key findings is that Minsk had great expectations from this association, but now finds it unsatisfactory.

Europe’s Last Dictator Comes in From the ColdArtyom Shraibman, for Carnegie Moscow Center, notices that Lukashenka’s fortunes have changed. Once known as “Europe’s last dictator,” he has won friends in Europe, while antagonizing his traditional ally, Russia. It’s a situation that has left the Kremlin in a difficult position: should it punish Belarus for its pro-Western tendencies? Or should it continue to prop up the Belarusian economy rather than risk further unrest in the region?

Belarus-Ukraine Relations Beyond Media HeadlinesYauheni Preiherman, in Eurasia Daily Monitor, notices that media narratives often distort the reality of Belarus-Ukraine relations. Some observers explain this by the absence of a “strategic vision for a long-term relationship”. The author sees this a typical feature of inter-state relations in the post-Soviet space, where politics is mainly about tactics, and fighting protectionist trade wars is part of the political culture.


Belarusian Opposition Comes Up With New Strategy: Negotiations With Authorities Due to Protest Pressure – Politicians and leaders of the mass protests discuss the lessons of "The Square-2006". The new strategy is likely to depart from the revolutionary approach to power change and focus on evolutionary approach, by changing relations between the authorities and the opposition through negotiations, backed by mass street pressure.

Ukrainian Sociologist: Maidan will not be in Minsk – Democracy in Belarus will come not earlier than in 50 years. This will happen only when society is ready for this. Artificial imposition of liberal values does not work, as well as there are no political or social preconditions for Maidan of the Kyiv scenario in Minsk, according to Ukrainian sociologist, Professor Eduard Afonin.

Public opinion polls

Majority of Belarusians want to keep death penalty. According to the March national poll conducted by IISEPS, 51.5% of Belarusians do not agree with the idea to abolish the death penalty; opposite opinion is shared by 36.4%. Women are less in favor of abolition of the death penalty than men – respectively 55.3% and 46.9%. Belarus is the only country in Europe and on the post-soviet space, which still applies the death penalty.

Belarus Between EU and EEU. Nation-Wide Poll – The ODB Brussels commissioned a survey about perceptions, preferences, and values Belarusians attribute to the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). According to the study, Belarusians have a high-level understanding and appreciation of the EU, a clear opinion that the EU and EEU are competitors while public reasoning is currently swayed in favor of economic cooperation with the EEU.

Peculiarities of Public Opinion in BelarusGrigory Ioffe overviews the key results of a fresh national poll by IISEPS and an alarming reaction of official sociologists to the results, namely, the decline in Alexander Lukashenka’s electoral rating. Siarhei Nikalyuk, an associate of IISEPS, suggests that independent sociologists who are de facto allowed to work in Belarus are playing the role that jesters did in medieval Europe. After all, only a jester was allowed to speak the truth to the monarch, who actually appreciated that.


Advocacy Sector in Belarus: CSO Experience – The study analyses the actual practices of advocacy in Belarus for the recent five years. The researchers see the key factor of success/failure of any campaign in its capacity for politicisation, i.e. whether authorities perceive a campaign political or not. The study was commissioned by OEEC in a series of sectoral studies aimed at summarising data on the development of specific sectors of civil society in Belarus. The presentation was held on March 24.

How to Make Minsk a Cycling City? – Pavel Harbunou, the Minsk Bicycle Society, shares the results of an annual monitoring on bicycle traffic on the Minsk streets, which shows that the number of cyclists has increased significantly in the city. The activists tells what can be done to make Minsk comfortable for all road users. Namely, the Bicycle Society launches a new campaign Street Bike Supervisor aimed to provide a regular feedback on the conditions of Minsk streets.

Ghetto for Each. Why Minsk Art Spaces Live Separately From Each OtherBelarusian Journal online describes the existing art spaces in Minsk, both mainstream and alternative. While a growing number of cultural spaces is a positive sign, it is too early to talk about the impact of these spaces for culture in general. It is more a question of the formation of separate subcultural groups, the original "ghetto" that arise, rather against the wishes of the state.​

Belarus Digest prepared this overview on the basis of materials provided by Pact. This digest attempts to give a richer picture of the recent political and civil society events in Belarus. It often goes beyond the hot stories already available in English-language media.

Gas Rebate, New Silk Road, Treasure Hunting – Belarus State Press Digest

The Belarusian authorities are putting all their energy into combating the deepening economic crisis.

They have released corrupt officials sentenced to prison terms and appointed them to manage bankrupt state enterprises. The government is seeking solutions to the problem of the growing black market for alcohol, which brings huge losses to a lucrative state-owned business.

Externally, the authorities are negotiating a new gas rebate from Russia and trying to find a place for Belarus in the Chinese New Silk Road project.

All of this and more in the latest edition of State Press Digest.


Lukashenka appoints officials charged with corruption to manage desperate enterprises. Belarus Segodnya discusses Lukashenka's recent decision to release corrupt officials from prison and appoint them to head up and save desperate state enterprises. The newspaper says that a state manager who committed an offence should not be lost from society. The author draws comparisons with the Stalin era, when repressed officials were given a chance to prove their devotion to the state.

These officials’ experience and skills can be used for the benefit of the people. The author also gives a few counter arguments: not all offenders receive this chance, it can damage the fight against corruption, it can be an example of corrupt ties within the elite, and become good material for the opposition to criticise the authorities.

Belarus wants to a place on China’s New Silk Road. Belarus Segodnya quotes Lukashenka’s interview with China Central Television. “We expect the most serious investments here in Belarus, we need to create companies that will produce a new generation of commodities. Belarus is well suited for this purpose – it has an extensive infrastructure and can transport goods in all directions, to the EU and the Eurasian Union. The project is open for investors from all over the world, and it is not built against somebody's interests. The project should unite economies and trade, and later also cultures and people”. Belarus is attempting to find its niche in the New Silk Road projects and is currently developing an industrial park called Great Stone jointly with China.

Belarus condemns commemoration of Polish fighters guilty of the genocide of ethnic Belarusians. Respublika criticises the decision of the Polish authorities to allow a nationalist march in borderland Hajnaŭka which has a significant Belarusian population. The march commemorated the Polish fighters who struggled with the establishment of communist rule in Poland after World War II.

Many of their activities were aimed at ethnic Belarusians who were regarded as supporters of communism. A squad under command of Romuald “Bury” Rais committed mass killing of the local Orthodox population in 1945-1948.

The paper says that Poland has the right to interpret history and form its own state ideology, but glorification of mass killing is unacceptable and the Belarusian authorities should support the local Belarusian minority to preserve its traditions and identity.


Minsk wants a rebate on Russian gas price. Soyuznoye Veche reports on the negotiations between Belarus and Russia on the gas price discount. At the moment Belarus enjoys the lowest gas price among all importers of this Russian resource, but Minsk expects yet another rebate of $10 per 1,000m3.

Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimir Siamaška says that a new discount will help to reduce tariffs on energy for the production sector of the Belarusian economy. At the moment Belarusian producers work in unequal conditions with their Russian counterparts, and hence cannot compete on the single market of the Eurasian Economic Union.

The authorities fight with the shadow alcohol market. The number of offences related to illegal alcohol trafficking increased 4.5 times in 2015, Respublika reports. In total police confiscated around 700,000 litres of illicit alcohol. However, this represents only a small part of the market, which the Ministry of the Interior estimates to total 50m litres. Virtually all traffic comes to Belarus from Russia, as the countries have no customs control between them.

The author claims that recent measures to restrict alcohol consumption have only driven it underground. To tackle the problem, he suggests removing restrictions and cutting the price in order to minimise the price gap between legal and illegal alcohol. He also speaks in favour of the internet trade in alcohol – a step which the Ministry of the Interior recently called a “diabolical idea”.


Women dominate in the state bureaucracy, but only at mid and low levels. Zviazda newspaper publishes statistics on Belarusian women dedicated to International Women’s Day. Women make up 53.5 per cent of Belarus' population, and 78 per cent of women live in urban areas, with an average age of 42 years. 23 per cent of them work in industry, 18 per cent in education, 14 per cent in trade, 13 per cent in healthcare and social services, and 8 per cent in agriculture and forestry.

30 per cent of women have higher education and 42 per cent professional education. 35 per cent of females are unemployed, and they earn 23 per cent less than males on average. Women occupy 30 per cent of seats in parliament, 56 per cent in local executive and self-government bodies and account for 70 per cent of all civil servants.


A new presidential edict outlaws treasure hunting. Narodnaya Gazeta discusses illegal treasure hunting and the new edict No. 485 targeting this problem. The edict bans unsanctioned searching for, selling and buying of archaeological objects.

Earlier the police only showed interest in those digging up old weapons and ammunition. According to the law on protection of cultural heritage, the finder of treasure gets only 25 per cent of its value, the rest going to the state.

Archaeologist from national academy of sciences Vadzim Košman says the edict should have been introduced 15 years ago. During this period many high-tech devices appeared on the market and a great deal of treasure was dug up, before disappearing.

When looking through internet forums dedicated to treasure hunting, Košman is often shocked by the unique findings which may be forever lost from science. However, many amateurs say the edict is unfair. It should punish vandals who destroy burials, and not people walking in the fields with metal detectors.

The State Press Digest is based on review of state-controlled publications in Belarus. Freedom of the press in Belarus remains restricted and state media convey primarily the point of view of the Belarusian authorities. This review attempts to give the English-speaking audience a better understanding of how Belarusian state media shape public opinion in the country.