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Can Belarus use the Collective Security Treaty Organisation to fend off Moscow’s pressure?
On 24 May, member state defence ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a Eurasian intergovernmental military alliance acting as a multifunctional security organisation, held a conference on the establishment of a joint forces command and combined units...
29 April 2022
Belarus and its neighbourhood become a dead end for Europe

In the fifth round of EU sanctions adopted in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the union prohibited freight transport on member state territory by Russian and Belarusian carriers from 16 April. Alongside the EU prohibitions on flights and...

19 April 2022
Can Russia compensate Belarus losses from Western sanctions?

On 12–13 April 2022, Alexander Lukashenka paid a working visit to Russia’s Far East. This was his third trip to the neighbouring country this year. According to Russian media, talks taking place between Lukashenka and Russian President Vladimir Putin...

8 April 2022
Belarusian authorities and society agree on distancing from Putin’s war?

On 31 March, Larysa Sekerzhytskaya, a school teacher from the Belarusian city of Babruysk was fined for coming to work with a yellow-blue ribbon resembling a Ukrainian flag. At the same time, in March, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka’s regime...

29 March 2022
Can the Belarusian army make a difference in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Last week, regional and international media, including major networks like CNN, again reported about the “increasing probability” of Belarus joining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, an advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs said there was now a...

22 March 2022
Will Lukashenka join Putin in invading Ukraine?

Speaking to Japan’s TBS TV on 17 March, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka stressed that Belarus may be the only country to support Russia in current conditions, but “we are not going to join the war.” Despite Belarus’s dependence on...

14 October 2020
Transit wars weaken both Belarus and the Baltics

For more than a month, Alexander Lukashenka has been threatening to stop exporting Belarusian goods via Baltic states’ ports, and to halt their transit via the Baltics and Poland. Alongside other measures taken by him, such as in the...

28 September 2020
Belarus reluctantly reverses its security policies

Meeting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka on 14 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that in the next year Belarus and Russia would hold joint exercises or similar events almost monthly. Belarusian special operations forces on 21 September joined the...

23 August 2020
Lukashenka runs to Putin amid protests

On 22 August while meeting military personnel in Hrodna Province, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that his opponents had — with the aim of bringing about a “colour revolution”— been attempting to divert his attention from the domestic situation by...

19 August 2020
The best ever opportunity for Putin to intervene in Belarus?

On 18 August, president Alyaksandr Lukashenka convened his National Security Council with a focus on “external intervention” in the current protests in Belarus. He cited military threats on the “Western borders”, although a couple of weeks ago he had...

17 August 2020
Is Lukashenka about to introduce martial law?

On 13 August, the Belarusian authorities stopped deploying special riot police against presidential election protesters. This move appeared to be a step toward a peaceful solution. Yet in two phone conversations with Vladimir Putin this weekend, Belarusian president Alyaksandr...

5 August 2019
The State of the Union: Belarus, Russia and the virtual state

On 18 July Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin met in St Petersburg. Integration within the framework of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which will mark its twentieth anniversary in December, featured prominently on the agenda. It has...

17 April 2019
Freedom day, escalation with Russia, and the ‘Ministry of Truth’ – Digest of Belarusian Analytics

Despite Lukashenka’s declarations on closer integration with Russia, long-term trends show that Belarus is gradually distancing itself from Russia. OSCE representative visits Minsk. Belarus seeks warmer relations with NATO. Belarus’s self-awareness is on the rise. Belarusian authorities show tolerance...

8 April 2019
The potential ‘anschluss’ by Russia: will Belarus resist?

On 5 April 2019, the Russian Ambassador to Belarus Mikhail Babich informed that Alexander Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin agreed to conduct further consultations on the inter-state integration. However, both Belarusian and Russian media continue discussing the possibility of the...

22 March 2019
A major diplomatic row between Minsk and Moscow explained

On 21 March 2019, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official comment regarding the major diplomatic row between Minsk and Moscow. Belarusian and Russian diplomats have exchanged mutual reproaches in a rather undiplomatic manner. Whilst the Russian...