In 2014, the Belarusian authorities started preparations for a new demographic security program. The problems facing Belarus are not unique in Europe, but in many ways they look worse than in most EU countries. Belarus continues to face a trend of depopulation, and with a birth rate of 1.6, there appears to be no chance for it to sustain its current level, much less grow. Demographic pressures will force the government to raise the age of retirement, at least for women, from 55 to 60.

On 22 April President Lukashenka delivered his annual address to the nation and parliament. The “phantom” of Ukraine stood behind almost every part of his speech. During his annual address, Lukashenka made some impressive, even revolutionary, statements. He called on Belarusians to unite in the face of external threats and demanded the punishment of those who speculate on the rights of Russians in Belarus. He devoted most of his time to discussing corruption and suggested economic reforms as a means of taming corruption and improving the nation's economic performance.

Yesterday Aliaksandr Lukashenka asked officials to make sure that foreign journalists would face no restrictions on media coverage of the Ice hockey World Championship in May. Next month Minsk will host a major international sports event for the first time in the history of independent Belarus. It represents a great chance for Belarus to open up to the world despite some logistical drawbacks and controversies over human rights violations in the country.

Every fourth woman in Belarus has been physically abused by her partner. Just in the last three months, 24 Belarusians have died as a result of domestic violence, a 41% increase from last year. For decades, impunity for such abuse has persisted in Belarus, a country with a traditional view on a women’s place in society and a troublesome human rights record for both men and women. Domestic violence is finally becoming a public issue and preventative and punitive measures are being taken. 

Over the last two weeks Belarusian state Channel 1 has regularly covered the protests taking place in the eastern regions of Ukraine. It also commented upon the economic repercussions of the crisis for ordinary Ukrainians and an increase in living costs. Lukashenka visited a few state enterprises. In one of them he met with happy workers who thanked him for their favourable workplace conditions. At another company, things took a different turn and he reprimanded the management. Minsk will be taking over the presidency of the Commonwealth of Independent States, after Kyiv rejected to chair the organisation.

On 9-12 April an exhibition called Holiday 2014 took place in Minsk. Unlike in previous years, people do not appear to be particulary interested in purchasing what are usually popular offers for getaways to Crimea. In the past, almost half a million Belarusian tourists annually travelled to Crimea fort the summer holidays. This tradition began back in the Soviet Union and continued on afterwards due to the low prices found in Ukraine, the absence of a language barrier and a visa-free regime. But the recent developments in Ukraine have destroyed the plans of many Belarusians for this summer.

The Crimean crisis stirred up a number of comments on the probability of Russian annexation of Belarus. The topic is not completely new. Since the 1990s, fears of Russia taking over Belarus – under pretext of integration process - were one of main issues for national politics. Later, the public's mood calmed down a bit as Lukashenka made clear that he did not intend to give away anything despite the authorities' integration declarations. The survival of the Belarusian state today does not seem to be any more endangered than any other moment over the past two decades. Independent Belarus always suffered from a bad reputation and was expected to disappear from the face of the earth for years.

The Kremlin's aggressive actions in Ukraine have scared Minsk. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) dreams about its own missile defence system. However, the organisation failed to re-equip even its 20,000-strong rapid reaction force for the past five years already. Minsk, while criticising Ukraine for having failed to mount a stand against the Russians, has to demonstrate its loyalty towards the Kremlin. New Russian aircraft has arrived in Belarus; nobody can say for how long. Belarusian defence and law-enforcement agencies lack would-be officers. This and more in this issue of Belarus Security Digest. 

20 years ago, Alexander Lukashenka won the presidential elections in Belarus thanks to his anti-corruption slogans. Today he returns the issue into an item of public discourse - last month Lukashenka proclaimed that Ukraine had a revolution because of corruption. Over the last months the Belarusian authorities committed a dozen of high-profile arrests including the Deputy Minister of Forestry. Although the situation in Belarus looks better than it does in Russia or Ukraine, Belarus still remains a fairly corrupt country.

The Cost of State (in Belarusian Kosht Urada) project aims to exert civic control over public procurement. The project has noted number of irregularities in public spending. Can bi-lingualism become a cultural development strategy for Belarus? – a topic of a discussion organised in Minsk by the Flying University and the International Consortium EuroBelarus. Political prisoner Mikalai Autukhovich is released by the authorities after spending 62 months in prison. 

Belarus Digest is launching Belarus Foreign Policy Digest which will overview the most important foreign policy developments related to Belarus. Igar Gubarevich, who served as Counsellor at the Belarusian embassy in Paris in 2003 - 2006 and held several other positions of responsibility at the Belarusian Foreign Ministry will prepare the digest.​

In the near future Minsk and Beijing plan to sign the main contract for the China-Belarus Industrial Park. Once a project that used to hold great promise, now appears to be a failure. Lately, Belarusian-Chinese relations have gone through a number of stumbling blocks, including the delay of the industrial park near Minsk and a manufacturing plant in the Homel region. And Chinese Geely cars have yet to become a popular commodity in Belarus. The lack of expertise and knowledge about China is the primary reason why Belarus cannot benefit from its relationship with the economic giant. Propaganda, as a surrogate to any fact-driven discussion, has brought Belarus more harm than good. The authorities continue to restrict access to information from independent journalists and experts.

During the three months of 2014, seven young people in Minsk died from eating blotting paper that contained a synthetic drug. A number of teenagers have also been seriously poisoned and ended up in the hospital in various cities across the country. After a ban on the free trade of poppy seeds was imposed on 1 January 2014, a synthetic drug, also known as 'spice', has made up 70% of the illicit drug market in Belarus. Due to the ease of creating the new narcotic with information readily available on the Internet, its distribution has become extremely difficult to fight against.

The presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia plan to sign the founding treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union in May 2014. With the signing less than two months ahead, the parties cannot reach a compromise on a number of contested issues, such as trade exemptions. Belarus seeks to abolish oil exemptions. This will mean an additional $3-4 billion for the country’s revenues at the expense of the Russian budget. The crisis in Ukraine can impact the negotiation process in unpredictable ways. On the one hand, Belarus may have extra leverage over the Kremlin as Moscow, more than ever, needs good news from its Eurasian front. On the other hand, Russia’s Crimea campaign undermines its economy and ability to finance its integration project.