Belarus Moves Towards Full-Scale Border Control With Russia – Belarus Security Digest
In a somewhat uncharacteristic move, Belarus started working on a full-scale border guard on the Belarusian-Russian border.
Western sanctions are impeding the development of industrial cooperation between Belarus and Russia, which still hopes to draw CIS countries into its confrontation with the West.
The Belarusian authorities do not trust America, but they still want to befriend it, as the series of recent meetings with the US officials show.
This and more in this months's Belarus Security Digest.
Belarus to Guard its Boarder with Russia
Belarus recently made a highly politicised decision to guard its border with Russia. On 4 September 2014, Alexander Lukashenka signed Decree No.433, which establishes a border zone within the administrative-territorial units adjacent to the state border between Belarus and the Russian Federation.
Although the State Border Committee still denies it, the analysis of the legislation explicitly allows one to interpret the decree as the beginning of the creation of (or a demonstration of the willingness to create) a full-scale border guard on the Belarusian-Russian border.
Taking into account the costs of installation of the state border of Belarus with other post-Soviet countries, the minimum amount of financial resources needed for the demarcation of the border and creating the infrastructure on the border with Russia will be at least $260m.
Besides this, at least two border units should be created, and more staff added to the existing Polatsk and Homiel border units. This would lead to a 150% increase in the number of border guards. The formal installation all the necessary components on the Belarusian-Russian border could take 7 to 10 years.
Russia Wants to Create an Anti-NATO alliance
In September, Russian officials once again stressed the need to create a military alliance in order to counterbalance NATO as well as repeated to its partners that the Russian missile defence system would be able to effectively protect the western borders of Russia and CSTO states. This anti-missile system would include the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan and two new airfields, the creation of which Russia has allegedly already agreed upon with Belarus.
These plans, however, appear a little out of sorts. First of all, Russia halted the Gabala radar station's operations, dismantled all of the equipment and withdrew all of its staff back in 2013. Furthermore, this was the first time these two Russian airfields in Belarus were ever publicly mentioned.
The latest incarnation of Russia's military doctrine also includes language about identifying its main adversary and setting up the necessary conditions to engage in a preemptive nuclear strike. It should be noted that the role of adversary has traditionally reserved for NATO in general and the United States in particular.
Recently statements appeared in Russian mass media that Russian bombers should be deployed in Belarus along with fighter jets. The likelihood of successfully creating an anti-NATO alliance is rather slim for one simple reason – no other CIS government sees the West as its adversary.
Belarus Fears Western sanctions against Russia
On 12 September 2014, the European Union imposed sanctions against the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). These sanctions will directly influence the prospects of the UAC acquiring a share in the capital of the 558th Aircraft Repair Plant in Baranavichy. The Belarusian authorities may take a time-out fearing the negative consequences, especially considering a possible toughening of sanctions in the future.
A similar situation is shaping up around the sale of state-owned shares in the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MWTP) to a Russian investor. The intergovernmental agreement is all ready to sign, but the Belarusian side is in no rush to finalise the deal. MWTP came under European and American sanctions in due to the war in Ukraine. Thus, one should not expect the selling off of MWTP to happen in the near future. However, Alexander Lukashenka will have to make the final decision.
CIS Countries Concerned about Nuclear Terrorism
The situation in Afghanistan continues to be at the center of members of the CIS attention. On 9 September 2014, Colonel-General Andrei Novikov, Head of the CIS Anti-terrorism Centre noted persistent attempts by Islamic terrorists to extend their activities into CIS countries.
The CIS Anti-terrorism Centre sees a real terrorist threat that could involve the use of nuclear or radioactive material in an attack on its soil. They are also taking seriously reports of radioactive material being stolen around the world. Particularly alarming are militants' reports of the theft of "dozens of kilogrammes of nuclear material" by the terrorist organisation "Islamic State" from the University of Mosul in Iraq.
In addition to this they took considerable sums of money, which would be sufficient to employ experts and buy the equipment needed to manufacture ammunition that contains radioactive material.
The suppression of the illicit trafficking of nuclear and radioactive materials across the borders of CIS member states has recently become as important to the CIS security services as the fight against drug trafficking.
A Drill to Evacuate 200 Thousand People
On 2 September 2014, an annual practise emergency evacuation drill of 200 thousand people from schools, hospitals and social buildings was held in the Hrodna region. Warning systems and the preparedness of personnel to act in a crisis situation were audited. The drill took place in about 850 institutions.
Hopes to normalise Belarus-US relations
The Belarusian authorities are hoping to normalise their political and regional security relations with the United States. An interagency delegation of the US government visited Belarus on 9 – 11 September 2014. The delegation included representatives of the State Department, the Department of Defence and the US Agency for International Development.
On 10 September 2014, Colonel Alieh Voinau, State Secretary – Assistant to the Minister of Defence of Belarus on military policy issues, met with Evelyn Farkas, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. The delegation also had a meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus.
The US representatives reiterated their previously stated positions on respect for democratic rights and freedoms, including the practise of holding election campaigns and the continued existence of political prisoners in the country. The parties agreed to continue the dialogue and declared their interest to normalise relations.
For Belarus, a normalisation of relations with Washington is the cornerstone of the entire architecture of the Euro-Atlantic policy. No full-fledged relations with the European Union are possible without normalisation of relations with the US, with all ensuing consequences: restrictions on investment activities, transfer of technologies and capitals, trade in dual-use products etc.
The limiting factor in the Belarusian-American relations is not only the low level of interest of the United States towards Belarus but also Minsk's distrust of Washington's policies. The Belarusian authorities do not understand and do not accept the modern Western world order. Therefore, they treat it with a considerable degree of hostility. In fact, the ruling regime is ready to receive Western money and technologies but is not prepared to adopt its state and societal structures.
Andrei is the head of “Belarus Security Blog” analytical project.
The Russian Air Force Base in Belarus: Getting the Facts Straight
Last week Chief of the Russian Air Force Viktor Bondarev announced that a Russian airbase would be established in Babruysk in 2016. An article from the Moscow Times on expanding the Russian air force presence abroad, subsequently reprinted in the Guardian, painted a rather dramatic, yet not entirely correct picture.
According to the story, Russia has stationed its fighter jets in Baranavichy and announced plans for an air base in Lida and even decided to establish an airbase in Babruysk. This is all a part of Russia's global military expansion with Russian strategic bombers going to the Caucasus and Central Asia and probably to other regions as well.
Analysis of recent news on the Russian base in Belarus paints a slightly different picture. Minsk and Moscow gave up plans to put Russian fighter jets next door to NATO member states. Russia will get only one base in Babruysk, and later than it had originally planned.
The regional military balance of air forces will show NATO's significant superiority even after the establishment of the Russian base. Revising their plans, Minsk and Moscow have effectively shown to the West their willingness to ease current tensions.
A Part of the Global Offensive?
The Moscow Times article distorted the issue in a few ways. First of all, it exaggerated the numbers by claiming that a wing of Russian Su-27 fighter jets would be stationed at the base. A Russian regiment, however, contains fewer planes than a wing in the British Commonwealth nations (24 and 30 aircraft, respectively).
Second, the article presented the decision to establish the airbase in Babruysk in the context of the expansion of Russia's air force presence in post-Soviet states. It implied that the decision to place a base in Belarus is related to Moscow's plans to make its air force bases in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan suitable for use by strategic bombers as well as to negotiate additional bases for strategic bombers around the world. However, there is no evidence of plans to deploy strategic bombers in Belarus.
Babruysk airbase is not an additional third base Read more
Third, the Moscow Times mentioned the planned deployment of Russian fighter jets in Baranavichy as well as Russia's plans to station its some of its air force in Lida. Yet it forgot to add that the planned airbase in Babruysk is not an additional third airbase. Moscow's plans have changed: only Babruysk shall host the Russian air force.
… or an Attempt to Reverse the Strategic Setback?
The Moscow Times correctly stated that the Russian defence officials explained the deployment in Belarus “as a response to NATO’s beefed-up air patrols in the Baltics and Poland.” A complete wing of Russian fighter jets indeed sounds impressive when they are flying next to NATO's own air “patrols.” Yet, the numbers once again tell a different story.
In two years, Belarus may host as many as 24 Russian jets. Poland already hosts 22 fighter jets from other NATO member states. Militarily speaking, NATO's F-16, Rafale, and СF-18 can definitely stand up to Russia's Su-27s. In May, NATO increased the number of aircraft deployed in the Baltic countries to 12.
These are also modern planes – MiG-29, F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon and F-15C. NATO has sent only combat-ready jets to the Baltics to carry out patrols. The aircraft at the planned Russian base – as is true in any Russian air force base – will contain planes in all kinds of different states which an be attributed to the fact that the planes regularly break down.
this looks more like a desperate attempt to compensate for the degradation of the Belarusian air force Read more
In short, the Russian military expansion in Belarus looks more like a desperate attempt to compensate for the degradation of the Belarusian air force. Minsk insists that it is Russia's most reliable ally, ready to defend Moscow. Yet it increasingly lacks the technical means to provide such defence. Russia is not willing to provide equipment for free and wants to station its own planes in Belarus.
Belarus's willingness to host foreign aircraft is predicated on its desire for one simple thing – money. According to a 2012-2013 assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), among post-Soviet states only Moldova spends less on national defence than Belarus. With a military budget of less than 1% of GDP, Minsk is not in a position to buy modern fighter jets.
Belarus cannot afford buying aircraft, even at a discount Read more
Over the two decades of its independence, Belarus has only bought a few training and light ground attack aircraft for its own air force. Specifically, it has purchased a second-hand L-39 and, more recently, a new Yak-130. Once its last MiGs and Sukhoi's are decommissioned, Belarus's airforce will resemble that of a Third World country.
Russia could have helped Belarus out by providing it with better aircraft, but chooses to charge Minsk for modern airplanes. Belarus cannot afford buying aircraft, even at a discount, and not only because of its financial constraints. Belarusian society strongly opposes arms spending.
What Minsk can afford are a few relatively inexpensive Yak-130 jets that can be employed for training and carrying out light ground attacks. Last year, Belarus got four of them, and another four will be delivered in 2015.
Seeking To Relax Tensions with NATO
Two aspects of the most recent decisions regarding the bases in quesiton stand out as proof that Minsk and Moscow are seeking to avoid a confrontation in the region. First, Moscow and Minsk have decided to move the airbase away from NATO and to the easternmost suitable airfield it could find.
Second, Russian officials announced that the new base will become operational only in 2016. As recently as March, they were insisting that the base would be established by the end of this year.
The Belarusian leadership can and does delay this kinds of projects for years if it so wishes Read more
It is far from certain whether the base will open even in 2016. Just taking a look at the drawn-out process of creating the Single Air Defence System would seem to suggest that the Belarusian leadership can and does delay this kinds of projects for years if it so wishes.
The decision to relocate the base to the east is already causing delays. While the western airfields could have promptly hosted the Russian forces, the eastern airfield needs to be reconstructed in order to be suitable for these purposes. The reconstruction will last as long as Lukashenka wants and can resist the Kremlin's pressure.
Lukashenka did not want a Russian airbase in the first place. Even now, having accepted it to get some military equipment and other favours from Moscow, he is not capitulating to the Kremlin. The last thing the Belarusian leadership wants is to see a confrontation between Moscow and the West escalate in Belarus's own backyard.
This kind of confrontation would destroy Minsk's ability to manoeuvre between the opposing parties by forcing it to commit to one of the blocs, a choice which it is reluctant to make. A Russian airbase increases the likelihood of this dangerous development. This was the motivation behind moving Russian jets from the western airfields, rationalising to its Russian partner that Belarusian aviation needs these airfields.
Minsk's interest in changing the plans for the bases coincided with Moscow's interest in signalling its desire to reduce tensions with NATO. A Russian airbase in Belarus would serve no critical purpose at the moment and it can wait.
The base does not look like a fait accompli. It is already the third time that Moscow has reconsidered even the basic design of its planned airbase. The history of Belarus-Russian integration proves that the Kremlin has rarely implemented its plans in Belarus when and how it wished.
There is no realistic threat of a "Crimean-style" take over by Russia of Belarusian territory either. Even if in addition to the two existing Russian technical military facilities (a radar installation and a communication centre) in Belarus, Moscow does manage to establish another base, it will still have no “boots on the ground” in Belarus.
But the degradation of Belarusian airforce and the establishment of a Russian base does, however, weaken Belarus's strategic position. Minsk will loose its credibility as a security provider in relation to Russia and become more exposed to the Kremlin's pressure. The presence of Russian airforce combat units will also undermine Belarusian neutrality, despite their clearly defensive nature.