New national identity, Fort Putin, sofa troops – Digest of Belarusian Analytics
Analyst Valery Karbalevich observes that no one from the Belarusian opposition is going to fight for the victory in the upcoming 2020 presidential elections. Minsk attempts to avoid confrontation between Russia and the West over the establishment of an American military base in Poland. Belarus tries to weave a new national identity.
Belarus still has hopes for an IMF loan. New Prime Minister Siarhei Rumas outlines activities for the next five years. The IPM Research Centre finds out that Belarusian state benefits for children lead to ‘delayed poverty’.
Belarus struggles to restyle itself as an Eastern European Silicon Valley. The survey shows that the civic position of Belarusians online is much more active than offline. Makron invites Lukashenka to Paris.
This and more in the new digest of Belarusian analytics.
Politics
Belarus Caught in Diplomatic Spat With France, Row Over Oil Duties With Russia – Grigory Ioffe reminds that the vagaries of a transit country and contributor to regional stability – as Belarus increasingly seeks to present itself – are versatile. While inadequate compensation for oil duties may outweigh the fallout from diplomatic spats with former Western European heads of state, both problems clearly cause headaches for Minsk and warrant a prompt reaction.
Sparks and Format Difficulties of Russian-Belarusian Relations – Yauheni Preiherman analyzes the results of the meeting of the presidents in Sochi on September 21. The expert notes that the meeting demonstrated two format difficulties in relations between Belarus and Russia. The first is that almost always the personal involvement of the presidents is required to solve problems. The second is a lack of predictability.
Belarus Is Trying to Weave a New National Identity – Thomas Dolzall, the National Interest, presents a rather optimistic view of the new Belarusian identity. In the emerging coalescence of many historical narratives of Belarus’s past into a singular articulation of Belarusian national values in the present, one sees the outlines of a maturing society. This new society is appreciative of its distinctive features and increasingly equipped with a common language with which to navigate the world well into the future.
Gloomy Landscape Before the Presidential Election – Analyst Valery Karbalevich observes some signs that the country can expect sad presidential elections unless a ‘black swan’ suddenly comes. Analyzing the current political field, he notes that the situation is similar to 2010 when 10 candidates appeared at the finish of the campaign. The prevailing mood among the opposition is that no one is going to fight for victory.
Economics
Belarus is at the bottom of Economic Freedom 2018. Economic Freedom of the World: 2018 Annual Report ranks Belarus 123rd among 162 countries. The worst indicators of Belarus are demonstrated in a firm monetary policy and regulation of loans, and employment and business.
Siarhei Rumas, the new Prime-Minister of Belarus. Source: sputnik.by
Prime Minister Sergei Rumas outlines activities for the next two years. On October 5, the Belarusian parliament approved a new prime minister. The recently upgraded government intends to focus on creating a favourable environment for small and medium-sized businesses, development of services, the transition to digitalization of all sectors of the economy, and so on.
Belarus still hopes for IMF loan. The official Minsk plans to start negotiations on a loan with the International Monetary Fund in two years. The recent negotiations with the IMF were interrupted because the Belarusian authorities believe that the structural reforms would be a painful shock for the population.
Reforms as a common good, or How Belarusians fall in love with a market economy. Alexander Chubrik, IPM Research Center, analyzes sociological studies over the past 10 years and makes a breakthrough conclusion: Belarusian society has changed a lot – the number of people who share the principles of a market economy has doubled during this time; now half of the population stand for partial or full market economy.
Social issues
Generations and Gender: Studying Child Poverty – The IPM Research Center examines the factors of child poverty in Belarus and finds out that state benefits for children lead to ‘delayed poverty’: the birth of children and the receipt of tangible benefits become important in fighting poverty, but when children leave the age of state support, the risk of poverty increases dramatically. The study was presented at KEF regional conferences.
Poverty and Vulnerable Groups in Belarus. Support for Families with Children and its Effects – IPM Research Center’s fresh study shows that the current support system for families with children has contributed to reducing the risk of poverty and has had a significant positive effect on fertility, especially in rural areas. This has also led to the fact that many families “integrate” the birth of children into their survival strategies.
National security
‘Fort Trump’ vs ‘Fort Putin’ – Belarus in Focus experts believe that Minsk is unlikely to change its position regarding the expansion of the Russian military presence in Belarus due to the possible establishment of an American military base in Poland. Minsk’s strategic goal in the current regional security crisis is to avoid being dragged in a confrontation.
Sofa Troops Go On the Attack – Panel discussion Civic activism and Internet, held as part of the Internet Governance Forum, showed that the civic position of Belarusians online is much more active than offline. Thus, 27,500 people donate via Ulej crowdfunding platform. The Imena magazine attracted over $600K for its own activities and social projects. Over 200K Belarusians sign online petitions through a dedicated platform.
Information technology
For the first time in 12-year history. Belarus HTP registers 200 new companies. Over the past nine months, over 200 new companies have become the residents of the Hi-Tech Park (HTP) in Belarus. In the first half of 2018, the HTP export grew by 40% – this is even more than in 2017 when the exports exceeded the $1 billion mark.
Minsk’s High-Tech Park. Source: park.by
Inside Belarus as Europe’s Last Dictatorship Struggles to Restyle Itself as a Silicon Valley Rival – Mansur Mirovalev, Wired magazine, states that Belarus has plenty of clever software developers. But is that enough for an autocratic nation to reinvent itself as a startup success? Lukashenka seems to understand the need to diversify his country’s economy. Success, though, is not guaranteed – not least as he is trying to run the IT sector in his trademark iron-fisted way.
Other
Belarus takes 53rd place in UN Human Development Index. This position allows Belarus to get to the category of countries with ‘very high human development’. The Index covers 189 countries. The average life expectancy in Belarus is 73.1 years, the average duration of education 12.3 years, and per capita, GNI is over $16,000.
Macron invites Lukashenka to Paris. French president Emmanuel Macron has invited Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenka to take part in the festivities dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the World War I end. Remind that Lukashenka met with the French president unofficially after the 2018 FIFA World Cup final in Moscow.
Belarus Digest prepared this overview on the basis of materials provided by Pact. This digest attempts to give a richer picture of the recent political and civil society events in Belarus. It often goes beyond the hot stories already available in English-language media.
Cleaning day, IT forums, and feminist art-projects – Belarus Civil Society Digest
As new NGOs managed to register in Belarus in 2018, the interaction progress between the authorities and civil society has increased. At the same time, the recent arrests of the journalists from the media outlet TUT.BY have worsened Belarus’s international stance in the human rights rankings.
Belarus hosts a series of IT-related and gender-related events. On October 3, Minsk hosts the Internet Governance Forum aimed at the discussion of the progress of the Internet in Belarus. Free mentoring leadership programs for career women will take place in September-October.
The Center for New Idea releases the Index of Future for Belarus. Mogilev to host a culinary Dranikfest on September 29.
This and more in the new edition of Belarus civil society digest.
Civil Society
66 new NGOs registered in the first half of 2018. In total, as of July 1, the following non-profit organizations were registered in Belarus: 2,907 NGOs, 28 trade unions, 39 unions of NGOs, and 207 funds. The registered NGOs mostly deal with sports (809 organizations); charity (403), and youth (355).
Study: Interaction of civil society and authorities at a local level. In July 2018, SYMPA conducted interviews with 11 representatives of Belarus’ local authorities. The respondents unanimously note that in recent years the situation has changed significantly: the interaction between civil society and authorities has become more close and constructive. However, officials generally view civil society as a free labour to solve local problems, rather than as a force affecting a regional policy.
Let’s do it! Cleaning Day was held in Belarusian cities. On September 15, Belarus closed the 6th season of its participation in the global action Let’s do it! to clean unauthorized dumps. Organized by environmental CSOs, the action takes place in Belarus from 2012. This is one of the largest volunteer actions in the country – the most massive one of 2016 involved over 24,000 people.
Civil society and IT technologies
IT technologies for civil society master classes are being launched by the Office for European Expertise and Communications in cooperation with Estonian partners. A series of educational events will present the best practices of Estonia and Belarus, which will help Belarusian CSOs to effectively use the available technologies. The first master class on October 4 will present online tools for teamwork.
One of Minsk’s regular IT Forums. Source: ngo.by
‘Sofa troops’: Belarusian civic activity on the Internet. On October 3, Minsk hosts the Internet Governance Forum (IGF), a unique multi-stakeholder platform aimed at finding the best ideas for the progress of the Internet in Belarus. One of the panels is devoted to the discussion of the growth of civil activity of Belarusians on the Internet and the possibility of its transition to offline.
Media Management & IT Forum will be held in Minsk, on October 25-27. The civil-society driven Forum raises a topic of media management in the digital age and brings together 100 participants from Belarus, the Eastern Partnership countries and the EU. Inter alia, a phenomenon of disinformation will be discussed, as well as a low level of investigative journalism and fact-checking in the region. Registration is open until September 30.
Human Rights
Independent trade unions leaders found guilty. On August 24, Henadz Fiadynich and Ihar Komlik, respectively Chairperson and Chief Accountant of Radio and Electronic Industry Workers (REP), were found guilty of a large-scale tax evasion. The defendants were sentenced to 4 years of restriction of liberty without imprisonment. Belarusian and international human rights and labour organizations consider the case politically motivated.
Journalists and editors of ‘BelTA case’ banned from leaving Belarus. On August 27, after interrogation in the Investigative Committee, seven editors and journalists suspected in the BelTA case were temporarily restricted from foreign travel.
Alternative report on the implementation of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities to be prepared. The Office for the Rights of Persons with Disabilities has initiated the process of drafting the report aimed to provide objective information on the situation of people with disabilities in Belarus to the UN Committee. The ‘Zero’ alternative report was submitted in 2016.
Gender Equality
Feminist art-project becomes viral in social networks. The sexist remark Lady, Comfortable in Daily Life appeared in the state-run newspaper to describe the detained female journalists in the BelTA case. The phrase became the name/hashtag of the project that encourages reflecting the role of women in Belarus and sharing personal stories. The campaign is supported by visual products that present successful Belarusian women.
Feminist art-project takes place in Minsk. Source: 34mag.net
Only 30% of business in Belarus headed by women, no ambitions and the huge burden of household duties. These are the findings of a Women Entrepreneurs in Belarus study by the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC) that explored major aspects that affect female entrepreneurship in the country. They include social roles, motives, decision-making process, and macroeconomic factors.
Free mentoring leadership program for women launched in Belarus. The unique program presents a model of women’s gratuitous cooperation to move more confidently along the career with the support of another, more experienced woman. Sixty participants will be selected: 30 mentees and 30 mentors. The organizer is Her Rights Center to Promote Women’s Rights.
Culture
Dranikfest 2018 to be held in Mogilev, on September 29. The festival is held for the 4th time and has become a business card of the region. Organized by the Center for Urban Initiatives, the agenda includes a contest for the best cooking of potato pancakes (‘draniki’), live music, exhibitions, master classes, etc. During the festivals, guests eat several tons of potatoes.
12-story-high mural appeared in Minsk. “This artwork is about the country’s hope, its image of the young IT-Belarus, which looks confidently to the future and creates it right now”, according to its author Fintan Magee, the street artist from Australia. The mural became possible due Urban Myths crowdfunding initiative that invites artists from different countries to create artworks based on their impressions of Minsk and Minskers.
Planetarium International Eco Film Fest to be held in Minsk, on September 24-30. The cinema Tsentralny in the centre of Minsk will become a festival area. This year, the agenda includes seven movie screenings from the US, Brazil, Lithuania, France, Russia, etc. The civil-society driven festival is organized for the second time and intended to show that environmental cinema is not boring, but thrilling and motivating.
Other
Index of the Future of Belarus is released by the Center for New Ideas based on the forecasts of 26 experts. The Index shows what (most likely) will be with Belarus in economy, demography, education, and inclusiveness of the state for the next five years. Namely, experts predict that status and conditions of civil society development may remain approximately at the same level or slightly improve.
Belarus Digest prepared this overview on the basis of materials provided by Pact. This digest attempts to give a richer picture of the recent political and civil society events in Belarus. It often goes beyond the hot stories already available in English-language media.
