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Freedom day, escalation with Russia, and the ‘Ministry of Truth’ – Digest of Belarusian Analytics
Despite Lukashenka’s declarations on closer integration with Russia, long-term trends show that Belarus is gradually distancing itself from Russia. OSCE representative visits Minsk. Belarus seeks warmer relations with NATO. Belarus’s self-awareness is on the rise. Belarusian authorities show tolerance...
15 March 2019
Information security, oiling Belarus-Russia relationship, Lukashenka’s sixth term – Digest of Belarusian analytics

While Belarus hedges carefully between East and West, Minsk and Brussels both claim they are eager to deepen ties. Lukashenka and  Putin meet for the fourth time over the course of two months. Arguments about oil and gas prices have...

18 September 2018
Belarus space program
Government shakeup and international space congress – Belarus State Press Digest

Belarus hosts 21st International Space Congress. Alexander Lukashenka visits Uzbekistan. Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei welcomes the new Russian Ambassador. Lukashenka shakes the government amid the poor inspection of the Orsha region. New Prime Minister Siarhei Rumas names the key...

4 September 2018
Lukashenka Yermoshina
Next presidential elections, the diagnosis of the Belarusian economy- Digest of Belarusian Analytics

TUT.by predicts that six candidates from the opposition will run for the Belarusian presidential elections in 2020. Lukashenka’s alliance with China helps to avoid binary confrontation with Russia and the European Union. Russian media have increased blaming Belarus for...

19 July 2018
Alexander Lukashenka Vladimir Putin
LPG export growth and a war on network fakes – Digest of Belarusian Analytics

Belarus turns into a huge exporter of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to neighbouring Ukraine and Poland. Belarus’ economic authorities have managed to obtain a credit for business confidence. The prosecutor’s office intensively detects violations in the Belarusian army. Belarusian...

29 September 2017
Zapad 2017: limits of Belarusian independence, national unity, western attention – digest of Belarusian analytics

In September, analytics on Belarus both at home and abroad almost entirely focused on Zapad 2017 military exercises and related issues of security and defence. Arciom Šrajbman claims that Russia showed Belarus the ceiling of its independence, Jaŭhien Prejhierman...

26 September 2017
Russia kidnaps a Ukrainian in Belarus undermining Belarus’s reputation

On 24 August 2017, Russian Federal Security Service agents kidnapped 19-year-old Ukrainian citizen Pavel Grib on the territory of Belarus. He is the son of a minor Orthodox Church official and army reserve officer, Igor Grib. Ukrainian society is...

13 September 2017
Viejšnoryja: the Belarusian Defence Ministry plays with fire

On 29 August in the Palace of the Republic, the Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces and the First Deputy Minister of Defence, Major-General Alieh Bielakonieŭ, held a briefing on the Belarusian-Russian military exercises West-2017....

8 September 2017
West-2017 smaller than NATO drills, loan from Russia, future of Minsk – Belarus state press digest

Belarusian military officials insist that Belarus has never accused anybody of aggression despite the fact that the West-2017 military drill will be smaller that that of NATO in Poland. Belarus sees a significant shift towards exports of raw materials...

19 June 2017
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Live: Ostrogorski Forum 2017. Belarus in the new environment: challenges to foreign policy, security, and identity after 2014

On 19 June 2017 the Ostrogorski Centre is holding a conference on the challenges to the Belarusian political and economic model in the new international environment, possible ways to prevent further deterioration and find solutions to major problems. The...

6 March 2017
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The Belarus-Russia conflict through the lens of the Gerasimov Doctrine

The recent visit of Alexander Lukashenka to Sochi on 15 - 26 February 2017, which did not include an audience with Vladimir Putin, casts the relationship between Minsk and the Kremlin in an ever more ambiguous light. Tensions between Belarus...

13 February 2017
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Belarus at the centre of Russia-NATO wargame simulation

On 23 – 26 January 2017 a Baltic security wargaming simulation took place in Warsaw. Two defence and security think tanks, the Potomac Foundation and the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, hosted the event. The wargaming initiative focused on the scenario of...

29 November 2016
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Will Russia occupy Belarus in 2017?

Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defence disclosed logistical data of railway traffic to other countries for the upcoming year. It revealed that the Kremlin is planning to significantly increase the amount of military cargo headed for Belarus. This may be...

21 November 2016
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Trump’s election, military cooperation with the US, comments on KEF 2016 – digest of Belarusian analytics

In November Belarus analysts focused on implications of Donald Trump's election for Belarus-US relations, ways to reform Belarusian economy discussed at Kastryčnicki Economic Forum, as well as developments in human rights situation. Dzianis Meĺjancoŭ believes that after the election of...

17 November 2016
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Lessons from Montenegro: is a coup possible in Belarus?

On 6 November 2016 Milivoje Katnich, the Chief Special Prosecutor of Montenegro, gave a statement regarding the failed coup attempt in Podgorica during the Parliamentary elections on 16 October 2016. According to him, several groups of Russian and Russian-backed Serbian...