Aliaksandr Lukashenka returned from Moscow with victorious news ahead of V-Day. He convinced his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to issue a new $1.5-2b loan and to agree on a stage-by-stage reduction of oil export duties in the emerging Eurasian Economic Union. This may bring Belarus nearly $1.5b in 2015 alone. These agreements, if implemented, will temporarily alleviate the country’s ongoing economic problems, but will not resolve them. Belarus is not generating the double-digit growth rates demonstrated before the 2011 currency crisis. Only an ambitious programme of reforms may provide a foundation for sustainable growth in Belarus, though such reforms contradict interests of the current leadership.
Despite the need to please Russia during the talks on the Eurasian Union, Belarus managed to avoid criticising the Ukrainian authorities. Minsk remains a strong supporter of Ukraine's unity and stability. Belarus pursued its policy of gradual engagement with the EU through its Central European members. Meanwhile, the country is actively looking for new export markets, mostly in Asia and Latin America. Two new embassies, in Mongolia and Ecuador, will open soon.
Belarusians resemble Ukrainians in many respects, but they do not exhibit any kind of the politically relevant dualism between western and eastern regions, which greatly contributed to the recent Ukrainian events. The urge to find the same patterns in different countries with different histories often results in confusing outcomes. Professor Aleh Manayeu, director of Independent Institute for Socioeconomic and Political Research corroborated this view with the results of March public opinion survey conducted by his institute. Presenting them last month in Minsk he commented that the population of Western and Eastern Belarus do not differ in their political views.
Foreigners coming to Minsk for the Ice Hockey World Championship get useful tips what to see and do in the city. Digital magazine 34mag.net has revised its Minsk guide for English-speaking tourists Budzma launches a new cultural campaign ‘Be Belarusian Women’. Movaveda, a new language course starts soon and invites Belarusians to learn their native language.
On the May 9th most post-Soviet countries, including Belarus, celebrate Victory Day to commemorate World War II. But unlike in previous years, this time around before May 9th state organisations in Belarus received an unexpected order - replace all V-Day decorations containing the St. George’s ribbon. Originally a Russian Empire military decoration, it was used during World War II in a modified form and since that time all former Soviet Union republics have widely used the symbol in their annual celebrations of Victory Day.
At the end of March, Aleksander Lukashenka gathered the management of Belarus' scientific institutions and top government officials to discuss the problems of Belarusian science. The meeting revealed that much of what the National Academy of Sciences brands as its cutting-edge achievements are simply revamped successful projects from Soviet times and have no breakthrough value today.
In this issue of Belarus Civil Society Digest: demands for a special amnesty on the occasion of the ice hockey championship, training for social activists, competition for bike-friendly companies, discussions of Belarus investment possibilities and transparency of university budgets. The digest also covers several recent cultural initiatives, including Museum Fair, festivals of Hrusauka and of Belarusian advertising and communication. Civil Society and the State
The conflict in Eastern Ukraine has brought some benefits to the Belarusian authorities. Due to the instability outside Belarus, Lukashenka's position in his dealings with the West has been strengthened. His recent phone conversation with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk proves this point. Belarus plans to capitalise on its role as an intermediary in certain sectors of Ukrainian-Russian relations. Meanwhile Lukashenka's approval rating has hit 39.8%, the highest it has been in some time. However, long-term losses exceed the potential benefits. Lukashenka can no longer predict the actions of Putin, who despite expecting further sanctions presses on, a point that Belarus has yet to concede. The long-term slowdown of the Russian and Ukrainian economies will greatly damage Belarus.
More than 70 thousand tourists are heading to Belarus ahead of the 2014 IIHF World Ice Hockey Championship. Many plan to take advantage of the temporary visa-free regime this May. Though numerous wars and rebellions have resulted in the destruction of many architectural landmarks, Belarus has plenty of tourist attractions undiscovered by mainstream tourists from the West. Belarus Digest prepared an interesting list of places that you need to see in order to say that you truly experienced Belarus. One can reach these places by bus or car from Minsk - distances from Minsk appear in brackets.
Alexander Lukashenka's annual address to the Belarusian people and parliament was the number one news item of the past week. The head of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan met in Minsk to discuss Eurasian integration. Meanwhile, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, reported to the Belarusian leader developments in the eastern part of the country. Corruption in Belarus remains a problem, but not as serious as in Ukraine or in the West, one state TV journalist points out.
At the end of April, the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies published the results of two polls. The polls demonstrate that the crisis in Ukraine became an informational tidal wave that has been sweeping over Belarus, with 90% of Belarusians following the events. Belarusian society has become strongly politicised for the first time in many years.
On 14 April, the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies published a new issue of its Political Mediabarometer. Pavel Sieviaryniec, co-chairman of the Belarusian Christian Democrats, is now the new leader in terms of media presence in Belarus. Sieviaryniec' success demonstrates emergence of a new generation of Belarusian opposition. Zmicier Dashkevich of the Young Front and Aliaksei Yanukevich of the Party of the Belarusian Popular Front also faired well in the study.
Western analysts see an opportunity, but also serious challenges to Belarus' ties with the West. The crisis in Ukraine may be an opening for the West to reconsider its position towards Belarus. Any changes in the West's ties in Belarus must not draw the ire of Moscow. Belarus is carefully assessing its ties with its neighbours. Lukashenka met with one of the new heads of Uralkali to potentially renew ties with the potash giant.
This April the National Bank decided to its reduce refinancing rate, which has remained unchanged for the past 10-months. This measure is, to some degree, a helping hand for the real sector that is facing significant difficulties at present. However, despite their best intentions, this move may actually lead to serious imbalances and create additional pressure on the national currency. Unfortunately, there are still no signs of improvement for the Belarusian economy. Its reduced foreign exchange reserves, the ongoing consequences of the potash conflict with Russia, and difficulties with accessing external financing support all have the authorities turning its attention back towards privatisation.