On Monday, Switzerland joined the EU sanctions against Belarusian citizens and firms believed to support dictatorship. Most of these firms belong to Vladimir Peftiev. Belarusian and international media often portray him as having a significant role in the regime. That prompted the EU to punish him and some other businessmen for their support of Lukashenka. However, the significance and influence of the so called Belarusian "oligarchs" should not be exaggerated. While in Russia and Ukraine oligarchs form a clique of business moguls which could seriously influence the government, Belarusian "oligarchs" are much poorer and have hardly any clout in national politics. In reality they are just replaceable managers rather than stakeholders of the Belarusian regime.

International agency Standard&Poors in April increased Belarus' credit rating from B- (negative) to B (stable). The agency i observed the signs of financial stabilisation in Belarus economy. Although inflation is still very high, it began to slow down, the pressure on devaluation of Belarus ruble decreased and foreign reserves increased. Just in September 2011 Standard&Poors reduced Belarus sovereign rating from B to B- due to its foreign currency crisis which started in March of that year. Even though the stabilisation measures were undertaken in Belarus' economy, the question remains – for how long will the stability last and what factors can undermine it? Postponed Loan

The Ambassadors of Poland, Lithuania and Sweden have returned to Minsk and their colleagues are on the way to the Belarusian capital. It seems that EU-Belarus relations have broken the deadlock, but they remain difficult and the EU has few carrots to offer its restive authoritarian neighbour. Unlike countries like Moldova and Armenia, Belarus is increasingly integrating into the Eurasian Economic Union without any serious interest in European integration.  The reason for this is oil and its financial dependence on Russia. If the EU wants to establish democracy in Belarus, it should offer a comprehensive package of assistance in reforms. But even if Belarus decides to take European path, it will take at least 3-4 years to reach the same level of relations as exists with Georgia or Ukraine. And there are plenty of obstacles: from WTO membership to an obligation to secure permission from the yet to be established Eurasian Commission.

26 April is a very sad day in Belarusian history. On 26 April 1986 a disastrous accident took place at a nuclear power plant in Chernobyl, just across the border in Ukraine. It became one of the most horrible man-made disasters ever. Belarus suffered from the radioactive fallout more than any other country.  Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union Belarus has had to handle the whole array of social, economic and demographic repercussions of the disaster. The lack of financial resources makes it a difficult task. As a result, the Belarusian authorities try to minimise the scale of the problem.   As Germany is moving away from the use of nuclear power, Belarus started building its own nuclear power plant and considers adding one more in the future. 

The two largest states on the EU’s eastern borders, Ukraine and Belarus, will be holding parliamentary elections this autumn. They are being held at a particularly low point in relations with the EU. Few are optimistic about the outcome. Nonetheless, the elections present an opportunity for governments, opposition groups and EU actors to re-engage positively. EU policymakers have long puzzled over how best to deal with these eastern neighbours. Policy has been constrained by not wanting to upset Russia and the inability to offer the incentive of EU membership that transformed Central Europe. The countries in question have themselves often proven unreliable partners and unable to adhere to basic democratic standards. Just two years ago, however, there seemed reason to be cautiously optimistic.

The recent release of two opposition activists is an important event but hardly a turning point for the political situation in Belarus. More than a dozen political prisoners remain incarcerated. Even if Alexandr Lukashenka frees all political prisoners and welcomes EU ministers in Minsk, it will not be a turning point, either. First, Lukashenka can very soon change his mind, take new prisoners and start the liberalisation game anew. Second, the release of opposition activists taken hostage by the regime may have humanitarian or personal significance but no political impact – as long as they do not undertake real work with people inside Belarus. The fundamental problem is that only three actors play this liberalisation game - the Belarusian regime, Russia and the EU. The Belarusian opposition's role is that of a ball with which they are playing.

​A propaganda-style music video "I'm From a Village" by a 13-year old girl was the breaking news of the week in online media. Other notable development include public debate on the proposed China Industrial Park in Belarus and the EU's new initiative "European Dialogue on Modernization of Belarus". At the same time Belarus was denied entering the Bologna process.   Patriotic rap song "I'm From a Village" ‘blew up’ internet. Ksenia Dziahelka, a 13-year-old Belarusian schoolgirl and member of a pioneer organisation from the town of Oktyabrsky (Gomel oblast) sings, in a propaganda style, about the stability and prosperity of Belarus. Amateur video of this rap song has attracted significant attention and sharp reactions from Internet users.

This week the Belarusian Association of Advertisers announced a competition for the best poster in popularising the Belarusian language. They want to draw public attention to "one of the most painful social problems” - the low usage of Belarusian in everyday life in Belarus. Belarusians have the weakest national self-identification in the former Soviet Union and authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenka is happy to pursue pro-Moscow cultural policy in exchange for cheap Russian gas and oil. The most recent manifestation of such a policy was a letter from the presidential administration urging local authorities "not to allow artificial reduction of the use of the Russian language".   While the authorities are trying to suppress the use of Belarusian, Belarusian civil society is trying to revive it. And for good reason.  

The argument for loosening the visa regime for Belarusian citizen is that people to people contacts must improve. At a time when the official diplomatic relations are at an all-time low, it seems that the exchange between ordinary people offers a glimpse of hope. It might prevent the Belarusian citizen from total isolation. However, looking at the German-Belarusian informal relations, it gets clear that it may not work. Here is why. The EU and many support programmes aim at bringing together civil society actors. In their opinion, young people, politically interested actors and activist of non-governmental organisations should meet. Belarusians would consequently understand how democracy works and the Westerners would see themselves that Belarus is a country worth visiting. But this is a somehow naïve vision of things.

The Belarusian Statistics Agency reported about a fantastic growth of exports in January-February 2012. Compared to the same period last year, the country’s exports grew by impressive 62,5%. The official propaganda trumpeted that Belarus has successfully overcome all the economic troubles that hit the country in 2011. However, the reality looks less euphoric. The breakthrough in foreign trade is not a result of a particularly wise economic policy or an overarching reform strategy. Securing cheap Russian oil supplies and selling oil products to the West remains the backbone of the Belarusian economy. Exports of other goods remain unimpressive. The Origins of the Belarusian Oil Offshore

Former Belarusian presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov and his main campaign aide Dzmitry Bandarenka have been released from prison on the eve of the Christian Orthodox Easter. It looks like the first step in the de-escalation of the worst EU-Belarus conflict in history. It is likely that expectations of Vladimir Putin’s pressure after his re-election contributed more to the long-awaited release of these two political prisoners, rather than the EU sanctions. At least 13 opposition activists still remain in prison and almost nothing prevents Lukashenka from taking new hostages for his dialogue with the EU. The EU needs a long-term and consistent strategy based on the support of Belarusian civil society and increasing contacts with Belarusian officials and businessmen. This will contribute to the long-term transformation of the country much better than sanctions alone.

Yesterday Andrei Sannikov, a 2010 presidential candidate, was released after almost sixteen months in prison.  Belarusian authorities prepare for the next warming up cycle in their relations with the West where political prisoners, Western pressure and Russian subsidies (or absence thereof) play a prominent role.  Earlier this week Lukashenka announced that he would be willing to release those who asked for a pardon. Mikola Statkevich, another 2010 presidential candidate, and over ten other political prisoners are still serving their sentences.

Opposition political groupings in Belarus are stepping up preparations for the parliamentary elections, scheduled for 23 September 2012. An IRI opinion poll figure from February shows that 43 per cent of people believe that in order to solve the economic situation in the country, new people are needed in government. 47 per cent believe that political reform is necessary to achieve this. Meanwhile, 32 per cent say they would vote for the "change candidate" or one not put forward by the state. These figures underline the tremendous potential opportunity for outreach that the election presents for the opposition, particularly if they can communicate with voters the link between the painful economic situation in the country and the need for increased citizen control over the authorities. The wider public currently sees no alternative to the current regime and is not well informed or supportive of the opposition.

Belarusians are the most travel-restricted nation in Europe. Both their own government and the European Union seem to be determined not to let them out.   The Belarusian authorities prevent leading opposition activists, students and state bureaucrats from travelling to the neighbouring EU states. The European Union also restricts Belarusian citizens by keeping the most restrictive visa policy in Europe and blacklisting top Belarusian officials and businessmen. The malicious motivation of the Belarusian authorities is not surprising. Why the European Union keeps its visa rules so strict is much more difficult to understand. Belarusian Authorities v the Opposition