On August 11, the registration of candidates for the September 11 parliamentary elections ended. District Election Commissions (DECs) reviewed registration documents for 630 potential candidates. Below is a summary of nomination and registration of candidates followed by a detailed report. As of August 12, 521 candidates were registered, 93 were denied registration, and 16 withdrew their nomination. Political parties nominated 63.5 percent of all registered candidates, labour collectives 24 percent, and citizens (through signature collection) 38.2 percent. Opposition candidates constitute more than one-third of all registered candidates. Based on the Central Election Commission (CEC) and party reports, registered candidates include 16 from “Tell the Truth” (TtT), 49 from Belarus Popular Front (BPF), 67 from the Centre-Right coalition (“For Freedom” (FF), United Civil Party (UCP), “Belarusian Christian Democracy” (BCD)), 27 from Belarusian Social-Democratic Party - Gramada (BSDP-G), 38 from “Fair World” (FW), and five from the “Greens.”
On 11 August, the State Military Industrial Committee of Belarus announced that in the first half of this year its defence enterprises earned a net profit of $80m, thus over-fulfilling the assigned export plans by a quarter. Foreign media have recently reported that new Belarusian military equipment or equipment modernised in Belarus is being used by the Turkmenistani and Kazakhstani armies, Syrian government troops and Burmese air defence. In addition, the Belarusian government has finally started procuring arms for the country's armed forces.
On 2 – 4 August, Ryszard Terlecki, vice-speaker of the Polish Sejm, led the highest-level parliamentary delegation of an EU country to Minsk in twenty years. This visit is emblematic of the increasingly common nature of inter-parliamentary contacts between Belarus and Europe. The marginalised Belarusian parliament has been slowly gaining international recognition. Will this trend help to promote democracy in Belarus and foster bilateral ties with the West?
Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, Belarus has experienced a decisive shift in policy. On the domestic front, there has been a strengthening of territorial defence forces, while internationally Minsk has shown willingness to reach out to a larger number of states as potential partners. The potash deal allegedly signed with China in June 2016 is evidence of this, as well as military cooperation projects already in place. An increased interest in relations with countries other than Russia in the post-Soviet space as well as the Middle East is also indicative of such a trend.
On 7 August 2016 the Minister of Agriculture and Food of Belarus Leanid Zayats announced that the country received $11m per day between January and June 2016 for exporting its agricultural products; this accounted for 18 per cent of all Belarusian exports. Moreover, according to national statistics Belarus has become the third largest world exporter of butter and powdered milk, as well as the fourth largest world exporter of cheese. At home, however, people are blaming authorities for high food prices. Experts point to high expenditures on agriculture, which exceeds income from export. Another problem is strong dependence on the Russian market – 85-98 per cent of Belarusian agricultural exports go to Russia.
On 5 August 2016, Andrei Labovich, First Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Protection of Belarus, said that the new Law on Employment would tackle the problem of the ‘professional’ unemployed. Simultaneously, in August 2016 the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus released data on employment figures in the sphere of industry for 2011-2016. According to this information, during the last five years this sector alone has witnessed nearly 150,000 job cuts. Such a clear contradiction raises a question about the future of the Belarusian social model. Does it mean that Belarus plans to give up on its artificially created 99.5% employment rate and what would the state do with those who lost their jobs in times of deep economic crisis?
On 27 July, the formation of Precinct Election Commissions (PECs) ended. PECs are responsible for conducting the vote count. In total 5,971 PECs were formed inside the country, plus another 47 abroad. On July 29, the Central Election Commission (CEC) published a list of PEC representatives and held a press conference. In total 65,856 representatives were included in PECs. Five hundred and fourteen opposition party representatives applied to serve on PECs. Only 53 (10.31 percent of the applicants) were approved to serve as commissioners. The PEC acceptance rate of those representing, what are generally known as, pro-governmental parties was significantly higher - 89 percent.
In July 2016, Belarusian Facebook users showed support for the initiative #IamNotAfraidToSayIt (#янебаюсясказаць in Belarusian). Originally a Facebook post by a Ukrainian journalist against gender-based violence, it quickly grew into a spontaneous online phenomenon which transcended borders. The campaign addressed the sexual assault, abuse, molestation, and harassment regularly faced by women of all ages in the post-Soviet world. As well as revealing the extent of gender-based violence, it also highlighted the indifference of Belarusian society to female victims, who are often neglected after traumatising experiences of assault and harassment.
On 19 July 2016 the National Statistic Committee of Belarus (Belstat) has announced the macroeconomic results of the first half of the year. The figures disappoint – economic growth still in the red zone. Moreover, the Eurasian Development Bank has warned that the Republican budget requires additional cuts in order to sustain the acceptable level of state debt. Finally, on 27 July 2016 the new round of Belarusian-Russian negotiations on gas prices and gas debt payment was held in Moscow.
On 20 June 2016 Belarusian president Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a meeting with vice-chairman and president of the Chinese CITIC Group Corporation Wang Jiong. The meeting seems particularly significant in light of Lukashenka’s planned visit to China in September 2016. The intentions of Belarusian authorities seem clear. The country needs foreign investments and / or loans, as long-lasting negotiations with the IMF continue to be relatively fruitless, while support from Russia is clearly declining. But can China become a potential source of foreign currency for Belarus? There is no doubt that investments and loan issues are to be on the top of Lukashenka’s agenda in Beijing.
This summer Ostrogorski Centre analysts have analysed developments in Belarus-Poland relations, life of regional media and the case of a new potential political prisoner. The Centre also published a major study of Belarus-Russia relations after the Ukraine conflict. In July the Centre held the first Ostrogorski Forum, a conference on foreign policy and security in Minsk which featured video-recorded debates of experts with different views. The centre also organised a seminar on Higher and Non-Formal Education in cooperation with the School of Business and Management of Technology of the Belarusian State University.
On 10 July 2016 there was an incident at the construction site of the new Astraviec Nuclear Power Plant. According to local whistle-blower Mikalai Ulasevich, a crane dropped the 330-tonne reactor from a height of 2-4 metres during a test lift. Until 26 July the officials either actively denied the incident or simply kept silent. For Belarusians, this is painfully reminiscent of Chernobyl. When the Chernobyl accident occurred in April 1986, the Soviet government chose to conceal information from the people for as long as it could. This decision exacerbated the situation for the general population, who did not know to take precautions against radiation fallout.
A Polish expert advises Belarus to ignore OSCE recommendations, as they are becoming increasingly irrelevant to the modern political context. Belarus's new military doctrine shifts its focus from external threats to preventing regime change due to provoked internal conflicts. President Lukashenka suggests engaging private farmers to save unprofitable collective farms. UNDP and Coca-Cola help Belarus restore one of the largest bogs in Europe. Belarus and Poland agree to increase academic exchange. This and more in the new edition of the State Press Digest.
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began, the Kremlin has persistently tried to expand its control over Belarus, a process that has had quite the opposite effect as Belarusian government policy became more independent in 2014-2015. There has always existed a paradox in the simultaneous contingence and estrangement in Belarusian-Russian relations. Estrangement looks the stronger of the two today, evidenced by the decrease in Belarus’ military dependence on Russia and its refusal to allow the establishment of a Russian military base on its territory; the reduction in the Russian economy’s role in Belarus; discrepancies in the foreign policy and media spheres; and conflicts between the political elites of both countries.