On 26 October Russian President Putin planned for a discussion about the plans for establishing a Russian airbase in Belarus with his Belarusian colleague Lukashenka. They did not meet. Instead, a Russian general told the press that the base plans had been agreed on with the Belarusian side. The Belarusian defence ministry retorted that there was no political decision on the facility. The airbase is already two years behind schedule. Unilateral statements made by Russian officials throughout the whole of this period have concealed a lack of progress on the base. "Many years of cooperation between Minsk and Moscow failed to yield an efficient mechanism of joint defence," lamented Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily.
Belarus's economy continues to shrink, and the government tries to sell proposed reforms for financial support from international organisations. Meanwhile, the IMF notices "considerable progress" in discussing reforms and the World Bank puts forward its vision of the reforms that are necessary to restore growth in Belarus. Belarus continues to boost its military potential by modernising old weapons while acquiring new ones, but its strategy will remain exclusively defensive. Minsk celebrates the anniversary of the 1917 Bolshevik revolution and commemorates Czech Jews killed by the Nazis in 1945. All of this and more in the new edition of the Western Press Digest.
Before the elections, many publications dealt with the subject of reform in Belarus. The analysis revolved around the post-Soviet space analysing the explicit degradation of the era of a commodity economy. This means that all these states will have to change, including Belarus. Minsk has already signalled by its actions its intention to change many things in its economy and politics. It is not only about its participation in the Ukrainian events. Belarus has taken seriously the optimisation of economic processes.
Belarusian experts discussed Russian subsidies, economic reforms, which the government will have to implement and the challenges of their implementation. Other topics include human rights violations in July-September, coverage of the 2015 presidential elections in state media and the state of the third sector in Belarus. Foreign policy analysis covers relations with Eurasia and the European Union as well as decisions of the European Court of Justice on targeted sanctions also covered. All this and more in this issue of Digest of Belarusian Analytics.
The Belarusian leadership negotiates reform plans with the IMF mission and is ready to gradually introduce more market-oriented policies. The new denomination of the national currency will bring in new banknotes in 2016, and Belarusian coins will appear for the first time since the collapse of the USSR. Belarus needs venture funds and new legal regulation to enhance the support of startups. The authorities plan to punish people who write too many complaints to public organisations. The police cooperate with a civil-force organisation, which was used in the Soviet period. A group of Cossacks were convicted and jailed for hooliganism. All of this and more in this edition of the Belarus State Press Digest.
In the first half of November, senior Belarusian diplomats met with their counterparts from Lithuania and France. The meetings focused on economic cooperation. However, Europe has insisted on the need for further progress in the fields of human rights and democracy in Belarus. Trade, industrial cooperation and investments dominated the agenda of Belarusian Prime Minister Andrei Kobyakov’s visit to Pakistan and Turkey, this time without a human rights’ “aftertaste”. Falling export revenues have led to greater personal involvement by the head of government in advancing Belarus's economic interests abroad.
On 3-4 November three biggest Belarusian economic think-tanks organised the Kastryčnicki Ekanamičny Forum (KEF) conference in Minsk. The third annual economic conference gathered a number of high-ranking Belarusian and foreign experts, and representatives of international institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. During Lukašenka's rule there has never been as many talks about implementing […]
On Friday, Aleksandr Lukashenka approved a five-year plan for the deployment of a joint Belarus-Russian military group, which will be adopted at a forthcoming meeting with the Russian President. Just before this news became public, Delfi.it reported that US General Ben Hodges had lamented that a joint operation of Belarusian and Russian troops stationed in Kaliningrad might easily cut off NATO's Baltic members from the rest of the alliance.
In 2015, prices for Belarusian apartments fell by about a quarter. Yet few Belarusians can afford to purchase an apartment even at this cheaper price. Interest rates are incredibly high, reaching 30-35% per annum. Banks also impose loan requirements that are hard to satisfy for an an average citizen. An average flat is just 26 m2 of space, according to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus. The square footage area is lees than other countries in Northern Europe. According to the Eurostat, on average a German has 43 m2 and a Swede has 44 m2 for their living space. Not surprisingly, many in Belarus dream of owning a separate flat.
Following “peaceful” elections in Belarus, the United States sent two medium-level diplomats to Minsk on 4-5 November. Bridget Brink and Robert Berschinski came to reiterate America’s willingness to uphold the “virtuous cycle” in bilateral relations when one's positive steps are responded to in kind. Continuing this trend, the two countries may agree on expanding their embassies’ staff and increasing US economic assistance in exchange for some symbolic liberalisation steps by the Belarusian authorities. However, a major breakthrough is nowhere to be seen.
For the first-time visitor from the West, a scheduled flight to Minsk provides the most direct means of access to Belarus. Some venture no further than the capital itself, yet getting out of Minsk and beyond the façade of tourism offers the traveller a glimpse of the way of life of ordinary Belarusians. Whether sharing food and vodka with strangers on a five-hour train journey from Minsk to second city Homiel, or helping the driver collect fares on a local bus ride from village to village, leaving the capital behind can make a genuine traveller out of a tourist.
In the past month, Belarus's authorities have continued to benefit from balancing between east and west. The EU suspended sanctions against Belarus in response to the nonviolent presidential election, and in the east Belarus continues to enjoy the benefits of Russia-Ukraine tensions. Igar Gubarevich analyzes the steps the foreign ministry took to use the presidential elections as a tool to strengthen the positive relations trend between Belarus and the West. In another article he shows how Belarus's national air carrier, Belavia, tries to profit from the suspension of air traffic between Ukraine and Russia.
The Belarusian government plans to step up its campaign against the shadow economy. In January 2016, new amendments to the Tax Code will come into force which introduce harsher punishments against illicit business. Last month, President Alexander Lukashenka demanded that Valery Vakulchyk, the head of the KGB, suppress illegal economic activities. Belarus' shadow economy has been an elephant in the room for many years. Restaurants do not document all of their employees wages. Shops sell goods without receipts. State organs have for a long time closed their eyes to this, apparently fearing that more law enforcement would cause political repercussions.
Belarus leaders develop closer defence industry cooperation with China and do not want a Russian airbase on their territory. Although Belarus has no alternative to integration with Russia in the foreseeable future, the two countries different economic models and the ideas vacuum in Eurasian integration make integration with Russia a challenging undertaking. In 2017 Belarus will launch a satellite and in 2018 the first block of a nuclear power plant will start operating near the Lithuanian border. Refugees from Syria, Ukraine and other countries seek shelter in Belarus. The disabled have difficulties with accessing the entertainment places. All of this and more in this edition of State Press Digest.