Last month Belarusian authorities continued their offensive against independent media. An amendment to the media law, in force since 1 January, tightened the state's control over the Internet. Eight days later, the state ordered the confiscation of profits from an independent publisher (Lohvinau). On 19 January the Ministry of Information used the tragic shooting at the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo to warn its domestic media of the risks of free speech. And on 26 January the Supreme Court rejected an appeal by the independent newspaper Narodnaya Volya against the Ministry of Information’s warning.
Aleksandr Lukashenka attended a recent BRSM Youth Union conference and tried to convince young Belarusians to stay in the country and be loyal. Lukashenka's press conference with domestic and foreign journalists on 29 January turned into one of the biggest news events of the year. According to coverage on state-run TV, even the journalists deemed “disloyal to the authorities” were given a chance to express their views at the event.
On 11 January, the Committee for State Security (KGB) made public information about the arrest of 20 Muslim Salafis that took place near Minsk in late November 2014. While Belarus' security services have monitored the behaviour of Islamic radicals in the past, the arrest is one of the most important actions taken by the authorities against Muslim extremists. Muslims have lived in Belarus since the 14th century, blending in well. However, in recent years preachers from other states have been changing the nature of Islam in Belarus by infusing radical ideas.
The year 2015 will herald a new presidential election in Belarus, certainly by the fall, and perhaps as early as March. It will be the fifth presidential election since the introduction of a national Constitution in 1994, and will mark Alexander Lukashenka’s 21st year in power. Perceived Weaknesses of Lukashenka Traditionally, elections are times when there are opportunities for the opposition to attract public attention, to use short spans on national TV and radio, and to make appearances at public venues. On paper at least for several reasons opposition leaders appear to have greater opportunities for support than in the past. They can be listed as follows, and not necessarily in order of significance.
For 2015, any positive growth would be considered a great success for the Belarusian authorities. Apart from external shocks, several structural challenges have emerged. A spike in inflation, deeper depreciation of the national currency, the distress of the banking industry, and growing unemployment have all become urgent issues that must be addressed. The government is trying to formulate a coherent response to all of these issues. So far the signals from the government suggest it is going to focus on tools of direct administrative control.
Last week, Belarusian officials made an unprecedented series of statements in support of Belarusian language and culture. One after another, the President, information and education ministers and the Chairman of Constitutional Court spoke up on the issue at prominent events and venues. Their statements may indicate a revision of previously held ideological premises. In the past, ruling elites expressed little interest in the national language, preferring instead to downplay the distinctiveness of Belarusians. These latest remarks made by officials in Minsk angered Russian chauvinist quarters, among them a major news agency Regnum and leading Russian experts on Belarusian and Ukrainian affairs.
On 9 January the Economic Court of Minsk charged the Lohvinaŭ book store with unauthorised book sales and ordered the confiscation of its whole year’s profit. This is perhaps the largest fine ever received by civil society in Belarus. Until 2013 Lohvanaŭ was also the largest independent publisher in Belarus and one of the chief supporters of Belarusian language authors. However, the authorities withdrew its license after the store published a photo album, which the siloviki considered as extremist. In reality, it only contained photos of large protests.
In Soviet times, machine building was a driver of economic growth in Belarus. It is not so today. According to the Ministry of Finance, the Belarusian Automobile Plant, the Minsk Automobile Plant and the Minsk Tractor Plant lost $76m over a nine month period in 2014. The decline in the industry has influenced the whole country. The state's economy suffers losses not only in the machine building sector itself, but also across the industries associated with machine building.
The first signs of private enterprise - kiosks at street corners- sprung up in Belarus in 1991 as soon as the country declared independence from the Soviet Union. These kiosks initially sold imported cigarettes, chocolate, coffee, tea, and cheap cosmetics. Later the assortment of goods began to include local produce and clothing. The authorities have tried limiting these kinds of private initiatives on multiple occasions, considering them to be unsightly and unsanitary. Due to state interference, small business accounts for only about 15% of Belarus’s GDP according to Belstat, the official government statistics agency. For the sake of comparison, in developed Western economies small business makes up to 60-70 % of the GDP and have become the main driver of employment and economic activity.
Belarusians are really beginning to worry about their domestic state of economic affairs more than Ukraine as of late. This is the main result of a December 2014 poll from the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) published in early January. The number of people favouring a pro-European orientation for the country and supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia has increased after almost a year of falling. The same was the case with the approval rating of Alexander Lukashenka: it fell after nine months of growing.
On 27 December, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka appointed Alyaksandr Kosinets as the head of the Presidential Administration. In less than a decade, Kosinets rose from the position of dean of a provincial university to one of the top offices in the country, effectively becoming the second most powerful man in Belarus. Kosinets has become known not only for his exotic initiatives like painting every type of public transportation into a specific colour, but also for his statements and actions in support of Belarusian sovereignty.
Starting 1 January 2015, Belarusians can no longer use e-money services with operations based inside the country. A presidential decree signed on 28 December requires all domestic e-money service account holders to provide authentic identification information. Controlling e-commerce is Minsk's first major move in the war on drugs. Electronic accounts were popular among drug dealers who received transactions anonymously. The presidential decree also strengthened punishment for drug trafficking, with sentences ranging of up to 25 years, and introduced measures sanctioning intoxication. The new law targets a synthetic drug called 'spice', which has had disastrous consequences in Belarus in recent years.
The EUobserver reported last week that Belarus might start talks over a visa-free regime with the EU, citing senior officials from the Latvian EU presidency. Many Belarusians reacted to this statement with expressions of surprise, satisfaction and hope, but mostly incredulity. Indeed, a few days later, Maira Mora, the head of the EU Delegation to Belarus effectively ruled out the possibility of a short-term solution for abolishing the visa regime between Belarus and the EU.
Despite the worsening situation in the region and Alexander Lukashenka's bellicose rhetoric, spending on national security will not see an increase in 2015. Even common threats have failed to unite post-Soviet countries: leaders of CSTO countries more often than not can engage in talking more than action. CIS countries are concerned about the security of their transportation infrastructure, fearing the consequences of terrorist attacks on major transportation hubs. Belarusian aircraft manufactures hope to enter international markets with help from the Russian United Aircraft Corporation.