On 23 March, Alexander Lukashenka asked journalists to send him their suggestions for a candidate for a new prime minister of Belarus. For a long time the leader of the Belarusian has been intensifying his rhetoric about his dissatisfaction with the economic results of the government and replacing Mikhail Myasnikovich. Still, his resignation may happen only next year. The Head of the Presidential Administration Andrei Kabiakou, chairman of the Development Bank Siarhei Rumas or the Speaker of the House of Representatives Uladzimir Andreichanka seem to be the most likely candidates for the premiership. Lukashenka has limited choices and no candidate will make a real difference.
Recently state TV widely covered Alexander Lukashenka’s official statements regarding events in Ukraine. Journalists also reminded the harm to the state and society which corruption could pose. However, in their opinion Belarus, unlike Ukraine, is successfully combating the problem. The Belarusian opposition commemorated Freedom Day, organising a rally through Minsk. On this occasion, it expressed its support for Ukrainians. State TV journalists depreciated the rally and compared with nationalistic movement.
Economic performance during first two months of 2014 has been rather disappointing. First, almost all industries reduced their output which led to a decline in GDP by 1.6% year-on-year in January-February. Second, Belarus has faced new challenges on foreign markets, which are a consequence of capital outflows and weakening growth in Russia. These economic shocks will deteriorate short-term prospects for Belarus, although the scope and scale of the negative impact is still not clear. Nevertheless, the government will have to react to the new environment it finds itself in, as the volume of accumulated imbalances is too high to be ignored.
Two thousand people attend Freedom Day rally. Fund of Ideas delivers CSR awards to Belarusian companies. CityDog rolls out competition for creative solution of Minsk urban issues. EuroBelarus holds international conference on civil society at local level. MediaBarCamp 2014 continues to accept applications until April 7. EU notes positive trends in Belarus’ cooperation with international community on death penalty and higher education.
The official forecasts for socio-economic development in 2014 is as conservative as it has ever been: the projected GDP growth is only 3.3%. International organisations and independent forecasters are even less optimistic. The economic authorities' plans for 2014 are also unusual. Less than two years before the next presidential election, the "pillars" of the Belarusian social contract – wages and employment – are being affected. It has been stated officially that the real wages in the budget sector will only grow in the case of layoffs.
On 23 March, Belarus held elections for its local councils. During Lukashenka's rule the local elections have turned into little more than a procedural administrative task for the authorities and a minor holiday with alcohol and music for voters. The nation's legislative bodies do not pretend to be genuinely self-governing in Belarus. The typically undemocratic practises that get MPs elected to office brings the institutions' legitimacy into question. They are often viewed as being little more than decorative institutions that exist solely to prop up a portrait of democracy in Belarus.
Belarus’ economy is showing its first signs of vulnerability due to its ties with Russia as its dollar bonds began to drop in value. Lukashenka’s initial critical stance on Russia’s invasion of Crimea develops into an admission that there is nothing the world can do about it, a message that concerns the West. The head of an opposition party is imprisoned for 15 days after taking place in a demonstration with political prisoner shirts. The opposition says it was campaigning for 23 March local elections when they were arrested.
A new online platform ePramova invites Belarusians to discuss public issues with politicians and civil society activists. Its users can ask any question and watch videos of politicians answering them on the website. How do Belarusian experts view the situation in Ukraine? International Consortium EuroBelarus and the Belarusian National Platform organised a roundtable in Minsk ‘Ukraine Today: What We Can and Should Do in the Current Situation?’ A new web site Nazirannie2014.spring96.org aims to get Belarusians who are interested in election observation involved.
The situation around the establishment of a Russian air base in Belarus remains uncertain. Apparently, Minsk is continuing to bargain. In response, Moscow has postponed implementation of its earlier obligations to supply weapons to Belarus. The Crimea crisis did not prevent cooperation between Belarus and Ukraine in either the military or industrial sphere: Ukrainian companies can participate in the modernisation projects of the Belarusian Air Force. The Ministry of Internal Affairs continues to try and solve their staff shortage problems and improve the quality of its personnel, while the Belarusian military and industrial complex reaffirms its priorities with its pilot projects in the field of unmanned aircraft.
On 12 March at a meeting of the Security Council of Belarus, Lukashenka confirmed that Belarus would maintain contact with the new Ukrainian government. He emphasised the close economic ties between Belarus and Ukraine and gave guarantees to Ukrainian business that their fruitful relationship would continue unscathed. Belarus' large stake in trade relations with Ukraine can be seen as the primary motivation for Lukashenka's affirmation of continued good will. Ukraine, after all, is Belarus' third largest export market with around $5bn in annual trade. As Ukrainian oligarchs continue to play a role in Ukrainian politics and Ukraine's economy, Lukashenka will have no choice but to work with them, despite the political orientation of the new government.
On 10 March the EU Delegation to Belarus organised a conference entitled 'EU-Belarus Sectoral Cooperation: Looking Back and Looking Forward' in Minsk. Belarusian and European diplomats in attendance agreed that the crisis in Ukraine would not affect EU-Belarus relations as they are setting a new agenda for their bilateral relations. Another rapprochement between Belarus and the European Union seems to be looming large. The upcoming presidential campaign in Belarus, in part, explains the positive tone of the Belarusian MFA. The Kremlin's pressure on its neighbours also has set the stage for the authorities in Minsk to become more cooperative with the EU.
On 10 April the Belarus Reality Check took place, hosted by the European Endowment for Democracy in Brussels. This is the third event of this series which involves a number of Western and Belarusian analysts and policy-makers. Previous events took place in Vilnius in 2012 and in Warsaw in 2013.
Belarus State TV reporters are preoccupied with the removal of communist-era monuments throughout Ukraine - over 50 Lenins have been recently been torn down. Alexander Lukashenka has named the reasons for the upheavals taking place throughout Ukraine: the nation's economic collapse and the corrupt conduct of its authorities. Recently, Belarusian state TV reported on decreasing levels of corruption in Belarus, which, in their view, proves that there are none of the necessary preconditions for a similar revolutionary scenario in the country.
On 12 March, Minsk and Moscow agreed that Russia will deploy 15 fighters jets in Belarus in reaction to NATO's drills on the border between Poland and Belarus. However, Belarus remains reluctant to support Russia in the Crimean conflict either politically or militarily. Lukashenka`s regime wants to simply show its loyalty and get its hands on some new equipment. Belarusian military dependence on Russia remains critical. Belarus conducts only small drills on its own, and many Belarusian officers have received their training in Russia.