Minsk continues political manoeuvring around the issue of the establishment of a Russian air force base in Belarus. Apparently, negotiations around the military facility have been not been going well for Minsk so far. In this regard, in November, Alexsandr Lukashenka demonstrated his readiness to carry out an independent defence policy. Budget constraints do not allow for any true resolution of the staffing issues in the Belarusian police. Moreover, the steady outflow of staff from the Interior Ministry continues, not only to the civilian sector but also to local police in Russia.
The regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka rejected the ethno-national model of state suggested by his predecessors in the early 1990s.Instead, he restored a soviet style “statist nation” with a centralised bureaucratic machine at its core. These are the conclusions reached in a new analytical paper "Belarusian Identity: The Impact of Lukashenka's Rule" released by the Centre for Transition Studies today. Identity issues, particularly those surrounding language and historical narrative, formed the foundation of the persisting cleavage between the authoritarian regime and the democratic opposition in Belarus since 1994. The population of the country, although not nearly as divided with regard to its identity as Ukraine, also has not produced a consensual version of self-determination.
While all eyes focus on Ukraine deeply stuck at crossroads choosing a proper direction, Eastern and Western donors zealously compete in Belarusian energy sector. In early November, the World Bank offered a $90m loan for the reconstruction of several Belarusian power stations. The loan became a new vivid example of how pro-Western international organisations and truly oriental Chinese credit agencies involve themselves in similar energy projects. World Bank's projects satisfy expectation of both the general public and government organisations involved, meanwhile the feasibility of accepting the Chinese financial support raises a hot debate. Belarusian government receives loans from China in the form of export credits that limit Belarus to purchase only Chinese goods and services.
On 26 November, unknown militants believed to be affiliated with Al-Qaeda attacked two Belarusians in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa. One was killed, another severely wounded. The men worked for the Yemeni presidential security service for about a year, as reported by the Reuters news agency, referring to local security sources. International media and human rights organisations regularly accused the Belarusian regime of collaborating with “extremist” governments and groups around the world.
The Vilnius Summit of the Eastern Partnership is over. As expected, Ukraine dominated all official and fringe events. Belarus would have been almost forgotten if not for an interesting initiative by international and Belarusian civil society organisations. As a parallel event to the summit, they put together a creative civic space titled BўROOM. The event hosted a photo exhibition and a civil society fair, a number of discussions and a Belarusian cuisine café. One of the discussions focused on how to break the vicious circle in EU-Belarus relations. The speakers outlined the fundamental problems of the difficult relationship and offered ideas to improve it. Most of the participants in the discussion agreed that the EU needs to look for more entry points to engage Belarusian society at large.
A nearly four month long “potassium war” between Minsk and Moscow has come to its logical conclusion. It has provided another example of Russia provoking Belarus' president and then quietly accommodating him. As Uralkali manager Vladislav Baumgertner found himself back in Moscow, both Lukashenka and Putin have reason to celebrate their under-the-table potash deal. The Kremlin has successfully navigated yet another nagging conflict with its problematic ally, while Lukashenka has eliminated a serious economic threat to his power, a conflict that was created by a now-disgraced Russian oligarch.
In the last week a number of events on Belarus took place alongside the Vilnius Summit. BўROOM, Reality Check gathered experts, political figures and activists to discuss various issue on Belarusian civil society. Eco-workshops for children launched in Minsk. Teachers teach young Belarusians on green consumption of energy. Belarusian Association of Journalists revealed the preliminary results of its survey – 50 journalists fell under police detention in 2013. Two years have already passed since politically motivated verdict on Ales Bialiacki.
Last Saturday, the famous Belarusian band Lyapis Trubeckoy gathered over ten thousand fans, mostly young people who came from Belarus, at a concert in the Siemens Arena in Vilnius. Today a number of prominent Belarusian musicians face serious difficulties when they want to perform for the Belarusian public. Playing concerts in neighbouring countries is one of their solutions. Tickets for the concert of Lyapis were sold out almost immediately after sales began, as were tickets for buses and trains going to Vilnius. Lyapis Trubeckoj, which is the most famous of all Belarusian bands, has fans all over the former Soviet Union.
On 28-29 November Vilnius hosted the Third Eastern Partnership Summit. Uladzimir Makei, the Belarusian Minister for Foreign Affairs, took part in the event. During the summit, Makei said that Belarus would start negotiations on visa regime liberalisation with the EU. It appears that both parties are working out a new vision of their relationship. The Eastern Partnership’s minor progress in its relations with Belarus is due primarily to Lukashenka`s reluctance to choose a European path of development. In part, this is because the regime remains financially dependent on the Kremlin.
This November a budget deficit and the lack of a labour force for state enterprises compelled the Belarusian authorities to initiate several controversial laws to help overcome the economic crisis. The government plans to recruit teenagers to underpaid unskilled jobs and to complicate the procedure for their dismissal and hiring which, in turn, will help to strengthen control over the labour force. The 'tax on unemployed' became the most controversial recent project of the Belarusian authorities. The law is to force Belarusians working unofficially and employed abroad to pay taxes.
This November showed the need for foreign capital in the Belarusian economy is becoming more and more acute. By the end of October the international reserves of Belarus decreased by $575m and amounted to $6.813bn. This number is much lower than the $8,500 predicted by the authorities in the beginning of 2013 and makes the problem of attracting capital all the more severe.
On 20-21 November, Alexander Lukashenka visited Baku. He held talks with Azerbaijan state leader Ilham Aliyev and they opened the new building of the Belarusian Embassy in Baku. This building became a good sign of the quickly developing relations between the two countries. Trade between the countries is swelling, partly because of Belarusian weapon exports to Azerbaijan, which irritates both Russia and Armenia. Aliyev is also trying to help Lukashenka with his dealings with Russia and the EU.
Last week, the Belarusian Supreme Economic Court approved recalling the license of a major Minsk-based publishing house. The government apparently shut it down for publications which seemed too political. This decision dealt a serious blow to Belarusian-language culture since few publishers have produced as many books in Belarusian as the Lohvinau publishing house did. A major victim of the political confrontation is the Belarusian language. The total circulation of books in Belarusian in the 2010s constituted just a third of the level under Soviet rule. The Russian language is a monopoly in Belarus. A sad fate for a country which between the world wars had four official and effectively functioning state languages. The Belarusian language-based culture struggles to withstand the pressure from Lukashenka's government and Russian popular culture. Earlier, those who published Belarusian books could rely on the Western sponsors. Not so much anymore - even the usually generous Open Society Institute closed its book publishing support project.
On 15 November, several Belarusian organisations appealed to Amnesty International and local human rights structures to recognise priest Lazar as a prisoner of conscience. Uladzislau Lazar has already spent four months in a KGB jail on charges of 'treason of the state' despite the fact that the public does not know any details surrounding the criminal case. The Catholic Church in Belarus remains weak and does not openly oppose the government. The Apostolic Nuncio holds secret talks, but this tactic causes resentment among some believers and priests. Many in the Church would like to see their leadership be more assertive.