The Eastern Europe Studies Centre together with Stefan Batory Foundation invites the public to a discussion on gender equality in Belarus. The project Civic Dialogue hosted a panel discussion on how to modernise the Belarusian economy. The Central Electoral Commission of Belarus agreed to implement some of the changes proposed by the Helsinki Human Rights Committee. Now the central governing bodies of political parties and other public associations will have the right to send observers to precincts during voting.
On 7 March, Ukrainian espreso.tv reported that Belarus refused to send observers to the Crimean referendum. This is not the first time that the Belarusian authorities have disobeyed Russia, because the interests of Minsk and Moscow are in opposition to one another on several key issues. Lukashenka will not support the precedent set by the Kremlin’s invasion of other countries in the name of protecting the interests of its Russian-speaking people. The Belarusian authorities seem reluctant to lose credibility in the eyes of its Baltic neighbours, their main advocates in the West. Moreover, Russia will lose tremendous sums of money as a result of the Crimea invasion. At some point there may not be enough money for Belarus, Abkhazia, Transnistria and other regimes it supports. This scenario becomes even more likely if oil prices will fall, particularly if Western powers will facilitate it.
The Belarus state media widely covered the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. Some of those featured by Belarusian state TV argued that external forces, including the EU and USA, provoked and financially aided the protesters to overthrow the government in Ukraine. Others believe that the Ukrainian authorities were completely detached from the people so the Ukrainian events were not surprising. At the same time, a visit by Uladzimir Makei to the Baltic States drew the attention of the media. Journalists pointed out that Belarus' relationship with Vilnius and Riga remain positive. The officials also discussed improving Minsk-Brussels relations.
At a meeting of presidents of the Customs Union on 5 March, Putin desperately tried to gain support on for Russia's invasion of Ukraine from his closest allies, Belarus and Kazakstan. All his efforts, it would seem, appear to be in vain, as neither Lukashenka nor Nazarbaev publicly voiced support for Russia's aggression in Crimea. For both individuals, it became a dangerous precedent which showed the true nature of Russian politics in the post-Soviet space. Now, the Belarusian authorities are attempting to re-launch their cooperation with the EU and preparing to host the Ice Hockey World Championship,
On 24 February the coordinator of the "Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections" initiative Valiantsin Stefanovich called the upcoming 23 March 2014 local elections in Belarus "an invisible campaign." His point is not without merit, when considering the total passiveness, apathy and predictability surrounding the electoral process in Belarus. While the authorities prepare themselves for the usual re-appointment of members of local councils, the opposition has little to respond with. It appears that, finally, society completely understands the profane nature of the whole process and yet, by ignoring the elections can create another set of problems for the authorities, this time – psychological ones.
The Russian Parliament has approved the Russian president's request to use military forces in Ukraine. People sneer in social networks: he asked to approve the bringing of troops, which are already there. But actually there is nothing to laugh about: while there is no gunshot, Russia tries to make itself at home in Crimea relying on force and Kyiv speaks about "direct aggression". Minsk, the Kremlin's nearest ally, still keeps silence.
A recently published report by the HeadHunter recruiting agency and TUT.by portal shows that the labour market in Belarus is starting to recover. Increasing demand for skilled wokers in the entire country has stopped the stream of labour emigration of Belarusians to Russia and the West. However, the recovering labour market has not cured itself of its old illnesses. The state-run economy uses its financial and human resources inadequately and limits potential growth. While building industry demands people, many manufacturers need to fire some.
On March 23 votes will be cast for over 20,000 seats in regional and local councils in Belarus. These elections are unlikely to be any more free, fair or competitive than recent parliamentary and presidential elections, or the 2010 local elections in which only ten opposition activists, primarily in villages, were able to take council seats. Belarusian authorities appear determined to undermine a competitive electoral process by denying opposition candidates access to the ballot, monopolising positions on election commissions, and creating an atmosphere of intolerance for dissenting political voices.
On 5 February, Lukashenka’s economic advisor Kiryl Rudy published his ideas in the National Strategy of Sustainable Social and Economic Development until the year 2030. A young economist with an academic background and experience working in China is supposed to transmit the Chinese experience of economic development to the gradually declining Belarusian model. His ideas indeed appeared to be fresh for Belarus, although they are also widely used by other governments and have been for some time. For example, he suggested to focus on the high-tech sector of the economy, and boost the potential of the Belarusian workforce by educating Belarusians in the best universities in the world and attracting internationally successful compatriots to invest in Belarus.
According to official forecasts, an improved climate for foreign trade and accelerated economic growth await Belarus in 2014. The growth of the country's negative trade balance in 2013 created additional pressure on the foreign exchange market and the dynamics of its foreign reserves. Improving the efficiency of the manufacturing sector remains one of the main objectives of economic policy. Officials plan on carrying out measures to stimulate the growth of industry and to reduce the stocks of manufactured goods.
Earlier this month Belarusian ambassador to Paris Pavel Latushka harshly criticised Belarusian producers for their alleged low reliability and problems with selling their goods abroad on a state TV channel. Latushka with his sophisticated background and behaviour always remained flamboyant and never quit fit into the standard image of a Belarusian official. He has been steadily rising in the state hierarchy and represents a new generation of Belarusian higher officials. Whether his ascendancy results from support at the very top or is a matter of luck does not really matter. Latushka can become the new face of the current regime.
Belarusian state-run Channel 1 regularly covered the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Journalists have often referred to the participants of protests and the opposition as radicals and extremists. Reporters blamed Western politicians for the situation in Maidan. “Maidan” appeared also in the context of state officials-small businessmen talks with the Head of State. Lukashenka warned the Belarusian business from getting involved into some counter-activities. Belarusian ONT TV channel organised a discussion about the forthcoming elections to local authorities. The programme featured representatives from state and opposition politicians.
Few foreigners come to Belarus from the West. The Belarus-EU border itself appears to be tightly guarded, but the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius raised hopes for improved visa facilitation. Is Belarus at long last opening up? A typical summer day on Independence Square in central Minsk: Several tourist groups gather around their tour guides and listen to stories about the sights of the Belarusian capital. Very few of these tours will be held in a language other than Russian, because larger groups of tourists come only from Russia and other republics of the former Soviet Union.
Describing Belarus as the "last European dictatorship" in Western media has become a tradition. In many cases it is justified by real human rights abuses and the absence of any real democracy in the country. However, often authors and journalists go far beyond objective analysis or describing the true situation in Belarus. They prefer to portray the country as a big concentration camp in the middle of Europe.