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2016 Will Be Tough, Reforms or No Reforms – Digest of Belarusian Economy
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After several years of slow growth, 2015 became the first year of true recession. GDP fell by 3.9 per cent in January-November; employment declined over the year. The Belarusian rouble depreciated by almost 60 per cent. Despite significant changes in...
30 September 2015
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Belarusian Economy A Month Before the Elections – Digest of the Belarusian Economy

In the last month before the Presidential elections, the Belarusian economy continues to disappoint. Although decline in GDP has slowed, the -3.5 per cent growth has failed to impress. The Belarusian rouble continues to depreciate as oil prices plunge. The...

8 September 2015
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The Economy Gets Used to Sustained Recession – Belarus Economy Digest

The Belarusian economy keeps on contracting: in January-July it decreased by 4 per cent. However, a number of positive trends have arisen: wages and employment are stabilising, along with improvements in current account balances. The latter might signal an imminent...

5 August 2015
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Why Are Belarusian Economic Forecasts Constantly Inaccurate?

According to the official five-year Socio-Economic Development Programme For 2011-2015 the GDP was supposed to increase by 62-68 per cent by the end of 2015. In reality, the growth is likely to hit around 6...

29 April 2015
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Belarusian Economy Creeping into Recession

The first quarter of 2015 displayed a number of distressing trends in Belarusian economy. The adjustment of the exchange rate has not secured the restoration of competitiveness. Furthermore, the government has to resort to conservative policies for mitigating structural weaknesses. The economy...

26 February 2015
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The New Economics without Oil – Belarus Economy Digest

Belarus is reeling from the effects of the wobbling oil price and Western-imposed sanctions on Russia. The economy is now paying for the absence of liberal reforms through a decrease in manufacturing, the depreciation of the national currency and the...

4 February 2015
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Belarus Tightens Media Control to Prepare for Election

Last month Belarusian authorities continued their offensive against independent media. An amendment to the media law, in force since 1 January, tightened the state's control over the Internet. Eight days later, the state ordered the confiscation of profits from an independent...

30 January 2015
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The Government is Preparing for a Recession – Belarus Economy Digest

For 2015, any positive growth would be considered a great success for the Belarusian authorities. Apart from external shocks, several structural challenges have emerged. A spike in inflation, deeper depreciation of the national currency, the distress of the banking industry,...

7 January 2015
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The Russian Contagion Spreads to Belarus – Belarus Economy Digest

Belarus's GDP growth managed to strengthen in November. But despite this, many signals about an upcoming downturn have appeared. The Russian economic contagion began to spread to Belarus through trade and informational channels. The government reacted by introducing a de-facto...

25 September 2014
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Outlook for Inflation Improves, Reserves and Income Grow – Belarus Economy Digest

Price increases for regulated goods and services, as well as the abolition of price regulations on meat had a stimulating effect on inflation in Belarus. In the first half of 2014 a gradual reduction of Belarus' foreign currency reserves occurred...

26 August 2014
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Sanctions as New Opportunity, Less State Support for the Economy – Belarus Economy Digest

The National Bank continues to gradually reduce its refinancing rate. The latest reduction, which occurred in August 2014, may help make receiving financing for legal entities easier. And yet, despite their best intentions, these steps contribute to the accumulation of...

24 July 2014
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Foreign Exchange Reserves Increase, New Regulation of Microloans – Belarus Economy Digest

For the first time over the last six months, in June Belarus saw an increase in its foreign exchange reserves. This growth was due to the issuance of a bridge loan by Russian VTB Bank. At the same time, the overall...

2 July 2014
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Output Grows, but Inflation Hurting Macroeconomic Stability – Digest of Belarusian Economy

The economy of Belarus is showing signs of rising levels of output with most industries increasing their overall output figures throughout May. At the same time foreign and domestic investment demand are exhibiting signs of recovery. However, this recovery...

23 May 2014
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A New Loan from Russia – A Temporary Lifejacket

The growth rate of inflation in the 1st quarter of 2014 amounted to 6.6% and made plans for reaching the official targets for annual inflation highly unlikely. Despite this, a gradual reduction in refinancing rates with a second round of cuts has been preserved. It was...

29 April 2014
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National Bank Reduces Refinancing Rate – Belarus Economy Digest

This April the National Bank decided to its reduce refinancing rate, which has remained unchanged for the past 10-months. This measure is, to some degree, a helping hand for the real sector that is facing significant difficulties at present. However, despite...