The most notable events of the last two weeks include the launch of the first Belarusian online media watchdog. Civil society organisations funding from the state budget becomes possible through amendments to Law on Social Services. A weekly election monitoring report notes the high rate of rejections of registration of opposition candidates initiative groups. Day of Solidarity with Civil Society of Belarus. August 4, the day of arrest of Ales Bialiatsky, was chosen in 2012 by the Committee of International Control over the Human Rights Situation in Belarus as the international Day of Solidarity with Civil Society of Belarus. Activists in Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Sweden, Germany, the UK, and other countries held public events, discussions, film screenings, and other activities. Ales Bialiatski, head of the Human Rights Center “Viasna” was arrested on August 4, 2011 and later sentenced to four and a half years of imprisonment for his human rights activities.

On Friday, Belarusian Foreign Ministry declared that it would not prolong the residence permit for the Swedish ambassador Stefan Ericsson. It caused predictable sharp reaction of Sweden and the European Union. It also put an end to speculations that participation of the Belarusian foreign minister Siarhiej Martynau in the Eastern Partnership foreign ministers meeting in Brussels last week meant that Minsk wished to improve relations with the European Union. Belarus for many years played for the EU the role of a local bad guy who needed to be demonstratively punished for breaking rules of coexistence in democratic Europe. But in addition to the impulsive character of the Belarusian ruler, a number of objective factors diminish importance of the EU for Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenka's high ratings in the post-Soviet space are far less publicised than his disapproval in the West. But the fact remains: the President of Belarus is rather popular in the former Soviet republics. He is liked for appearing to create law and order and for keeping the Russian subsidies flowing. For states like Moldova and Ukraine, Lukashenka’s approval is also a vote of no confidence in their own leadership. In the absence of fair elections and restrictions on independent opinion polls it is difficult to find reliable statistics on Lukashenka’s popularity in Belarus. It is all too easy to assume that the president has fallen out of everybody’s favour. One can make no claims about the leader’s fame within the borders of his own republic: conducting a representative survey on such a sensitive subject in Belarus is next to impossible.

Does the European Union Need Belarus? journalist Nikolai Slutski examines whether the European Union could consider Belarus as an equal or an associate member of the European community, should Belarus decide to choose a pro-Western foreign policy vector. The journalist comes to a conclusion that beyond the politics, the EU has a weak economic motivation to have Belarus as a part of the EU. He observes that  although Belarusian exports to the European Union today exceed exports to the Russia, most of it consists of processed commodities from Russia itself supported by cheap prices on Russian natural gas. He concludes that without cheap raw materials and energy supplies from Russia there will be almost no exports from Belarus to Europe. 

Struggling with problems in its foreign policy towards the West and Russia, Belarusian government looks for partners elsewhere. Last month, top Belarusian officials visited several South American capitals. Lukashenka personally went to Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador. But despite various speculations and loud rhetoric, form dominates over substance in these relations.  He came for the third time to Caracas. Trade volumes with Venezuela rose from USD 6 million in 2006 to USD 1.3 billion in 2011. Cooperation with Venezuela is, indeed, a major issue for Belarusian foreign policy to be compared to friendship with China. But while relations with Beijing were established immediately after independence and gradually developed all these years, Belarusian interaction with Latin America remained somehow chaotic and sidelined till mid-2000s.

Young Belarusian photographer faces criminal charges over the teddy bear stunt. Belarus arrests and charges anti-nuclear activists while Dmitry Medvedev was visiting Minsk to finalise $10 billion nuclear power plant deal. The 2012 Eurovision song contest winner Loreen meets human rights defenders in Belarus. Photographer facing criminal charges over teddy bear stunt. Belarus KGB has extended detention of Anton Surapin, who is formally suspected of helping foreigners illegally enter Belarus. The 20-year-old student at Belarusian State University's Journalism Institute, was detained on July 13 over pictures of “pro-free speech” teddy bears that were allegedly dropped on Belarus from a plane piloted by representatives of Swedish public relations firm Studio Total on July 4.

On 29 June the lower chamber of the Belarusian parliament – the House of Representatives – approved in a first reading amendments which introduce harsher administrative liability for non-licensed public opinion surveys. The bill further restricts possibilities for independent research of the social and political processes in Belarusian society. As a result, the quality of such research will suffer a new blow. And it is the government itself that is the biggest loser in this situation. The Belarusian authorities began their struggle against independent pollsters in the early 2000s. In 2002 the Council of Ministers adopted a decree that established a special order for surveying public opinion in Belarus. 

Although trade turnover between Poland and Belarus indicates positive trends, numerous problems remain unsolved. Treatment of Polish minority in Belarus and wide spread human rights violations are just a few of them.  Nevertheless, both Poland and Belarus have a few serious reasons to establish positive relations. Warsaw is driven by prestige and even more so by the geopolitics of today's Europe. Belarus place in Europe makes it an important actor where Russian influences play an important role. Polish political elites with scepticism observe Moscow's increasing involvement in Minsk. Another argument is that Warsaw needs to have a stable and predictable neighbour with whom can pursue normal relations, based on the common interests, but also set of certain values. However, Poland's desire to increase mutual cooperation fails to generate mutual feelings in the official Minsk. 

In the coming years virtually all southern Baltic Sea region states will be involved in a nuclear race. Disagreements between Vilnius, Minsk and Moscow over the Russian and Belarusian nuclear plants in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border is just a part of the picture. In late June, Lithuanian parliament approved the concession agreement for the new Visaginas nuclear power plant. The old Ignalina plant shut down a few years ago in accordance with Lithuania's accession agreement with the European Union. Japanese GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy is to become a strategic investor of the project, Lithuania (Visagino Atominė Elektrinė) would share 38%, Latvia (Latvenergo) 20% and Estonia (EestiEnergia) 22%. Despite these agreements, the Lithuanian nuclear power plant remains a hotly contested project.

Belarusian analysts focus on the role and strategy of the Belarusian opposition, the balance of powers before the parliamentary elections, sources of legitimacy of Alexander Lukashenka and Schengen visas for Belarusians.  Lukashenka and his Opponents Preserved in a Crystal Vessel - Alexander Klaskovsky analyses the age structure of the Belarusian opposition and identifies the lack of the influx of young forces there. As a result almost 18 years of continuous pressure the opposition in Belarus is now assigned a role of whipping boys. Most of the opposition leadership is old and has been there since early 1990s.

Lukashenka delivered a speech dedicated to Independence Day earlier this month. According to his statements, the history of an independent and full-fledged Belarusian state started together with his election to the post of the President of Belarus in 1994. Lukashenka believes that Belarus merely used to be a part of Lithuania, Poland, and Russia in the past. “Our lands passed from one state to another over the past centuries. The Belarusian people faced political, economic, and cultural oppression. All of this can be found in our history”, said Lukashenka. The power “wallowed in mud” in 1991-1994. “The elder generation hasn’t forgotten the image of Belarus in the hard 1990s, when the economy collapsed, the authorities were paralysed, the people suffered from unemployment and poverty, and we were trying to keep our balance on the edge of disaster. It must have been  God that saved us. We started looking for a way-out, including a political one.”

Fines for unsanctioned polls. The House of Representatives approved in the first reading a bill of amendments, which would establish administrative liability for non-licensed public opinion surveys. The fine would in particular be established for “illegal” polls asking people about their opinion about political situation the country, a national referendum, or parliamentary and presidential elections. It would equal 20 base rates (about $240) for individuals and up to 100 base rates (about $1,200) for legal entities. New IISEPS survey. In June, the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted a survey of public opinion on major issues of life of Belarusians. In particular, the experts observe stabilization of the "economic health" of Belarusians, but also an increasing number of people who believe that Belarus needs changes (77.3%). Also, Alexander Lukashenka's electoral rating has dropped to 29.7% compared to March (34.5%).

On 4 July, Swedish amateur pilots penetrated Belarus' airspace according to an email received by Belarus Digest. Their small aircraft crossed the Lithuanian-Belarusian border and parachuted hundreds of teddy-bears with notes of support for the freedom of speech. Covered by some Belarusian and Swedish media, but denied by the Belarusian authorities, the flight has generated more publicity than some of the pro-democracy initiatives by civil society groups and the EU in Belarus. “We planned the operation for one year, bought an airplane, learned how to fly, had people on the ground that [sic] was supposed to help out if the plane got shot down,” Hannah Frey wrote in an email to Belarus Digest on 5 July. Frey and co-pilot Thomas Mazetti were not afraid to risk their lives – unlike Belarusians, some of whom are afraid to talk to the media and will neither deny nor confirm the incident. 

CSO Sustainability Index for Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia. The U.S. Agency for International Development CSO Sustainability Index to measure the progress of civil society organisations (CSOs) in the Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia region. The report on Belarus suggests that despite the difficult environment in which it operates after the December 2011 presidential elections, the third sector is expanding its capacities. CSOs generate analytical products for use both within the sector, internationally, and in some cases even by the government.  The Belarusian Role Model. Youth magazine 34mag composed the portrait of an ideal Belarusian. The "researchers" found 50 ideal features relying on their own ideas.  In particular, an ideal Belarusian is free, not nagging, speaks good Belarusian, knows the history of Belarus, open minded, ignores state propaganda, travels a lot and has a multiple entry Schengen visa.