This month seven more European states joined the EU sanctions against Belarus. As a result of this year's new extension of restrictive measures target not only officials and politicians but also businessmen. It means that this politicised problem involves clear economic underpinning. The history of relations between Belarus and the European Union demonstrates how important were economic interests in building political contacts. Relations with Western nations remained cold for over 15 years. Starting in 1996, when Belarus hold constitutional referendum extending the powers of her executive, all major political campaigns in the country have caused harsh criticism from the West.

On 22 June Belarusian president asked PM Mikhail Miasnikovich to tackle inflation and ensure that the country’s average salary would reach $500 by the end of the year. In fact, it is not the right time to share oil revenues with the population when authorities badly need free money to repay their foreign debt and modernise the economy. The Belarusian leadership understands that reforms are inevitable, but they fear to change radically the existing system of power and redistribution in hopes of maintaining the status quo with the help of Russian subsidies. But the more loans are taken and reforms protracted, the more money will be needed to change direction and get on the right track. Russian businessmen are waiting with impatience for Lukashenka to announce that socialism is over and the sale of state property is open.

Belarusian scholars devoted significant attention to the structure and of the Belarusian society and what drives local democracy and motivation of Belarusians.  New edition of Belarus Headlines. The VIII issue of Belarus Headlines commemorates the one year anniversary of prominent Belarusian political scholar Vitali Silitski’s passing. Dr Silitski served as academic director of BISS and left a profound legacy for Belarusian political science. In this issue Belarusian and Western experts share their memories of Vitali as a person and reflect on the relevance of his works today. We Need to Destroy ‘Moscow’ in Belarusians’ Minds – Uladzimir Matskevich, philosopher and methodologist, specified the terms used under his Cultured Politics program, and summed up some results of the program’s activity during a public lecture under the "Urbi et Orbi" series. He reminded about the main thesis - "To think Belarus", as well as about the key categories, which are to use within the framework of the Cultured Politics: "politics", "culture", "to think / to conceive", "Belarus".

Among those surrounding Lukashenka there are people waiting for changes. They should get clear signals that their position will be rewarded and appreciated, because the fate of the revolution, evolution or other change that will inevitably come to Belarus at а crucial moment may depend upon them. Getting sulky does not make sense, it is better to look for the weak links in the chain surrounding Alexander Lukashenka to establish communication channels with the regime. European tirades against the Belarusian president, at best, backfire as seen in what happened a few weeks ago with Guido Westerwelle and Radoslaw Sikorski, and in the worst case they fuel domestic propaganda that "Belarus is under attack." Under the very worst scenario an European reproach provokes retaliatory measures against the opposition. Despite Lukashenka's peculiar behaviour, his policy deserves a solid response: not just ambiguous ridicules, but a list of concrete conditions.

Imagine you are young and well-educated. Imagine you study in one of the world’s best universities and conduct research for your PhD thesis on security policy. Imagine that the first question the people who could be your colleagues ask is: Why are you failing to get married? And would you not perhaps like to write a thesis on how to get married? Outrageous? Sexual discrimination? No, perfectly fine questions to ask in a professional context in Belarus, Russia, and many other post-Soviet countries. For people from the West, the backward (non-existent) position towards gender equality in the former Soviet Union is hard to understand. Even more so for women from the West, confronted with Belarusian men refusing to shake their hands. (Shaking hands is reserved for equals, meaning: men).

The most notable civil society events in Belarus include Avangard launching the first Youth Internet TV in Belarus. Ambassador of the Kingdom of Sweden to Belarus Stefan Eriksson became honorary chairman of the AD.NAK! jury. Tell the Truth and For Freedom joined the National Platform of EaP CS Forum. NGO Assembly are preparing for the VII Congress. A new think tank, the Belarusian Analytical Centre, was presented in Warsaw. As far as political developments are concerned, Aleksandr Lukashenka warned against granting pardon to convicts during the coming amnesty campaign on politically motivated grounds. US President Obama extended sanctions against Belarusian officials for another year.

Professor David Marples  the University of Alberta who was banned in April from travelling to Belarus is finishing his new book on historical memory and World War II in Belarus. At an Anglo-Belarusian Society event in London last week, he was speaking about the "military" mentality of the Belarusian society, the nation-building process in Belarus, and the West's policy against Lukashenka’s regime, including sanctions and the ice hockey championship. The Canadian historian and political scholar has long been known as one of the best Western experts on Belarus and already published several books including the most recent "The Lukashenka Phenomenon: Elections, Propaganda, and the Foundations of Political Authority in Belarus" (2007). Last year, he became the president of the North American Association of Belarusian Studies.

"We do not cultivate the idea of sex tourism in Belarus. But if [a foreign tourist] has an interest, let him look for it, meet girls and marry". This is how the deputy Minister of Sports and Tourism Cheslau Shulha recently answered a question about the growing sex industry in Belarus on a state TV channel. While the Belarusian authorities are talking about the prospects of sex tourism, the inflow of foreign tourists in general remains low. Belarus mostly attracts Russian citizens who come to rest at health resorts or gamble in casinos. Western tourists are still very rare. They do not want to pay for expensive visas only to find the lack of appropriate tourist infrastructure.

Last weekend, the Party of the European Left held a conference in Minsk. Some delegates were denied entry to Belarus although the party has frequently taken a moderate position on the European Parliament's resolutions on Belarus. In the past, the European Left has also expressed solidarity with the Belarusian government on a national level in some European countries and in Germany. Many of them believe that the Belarusian regime shares their ideology.  Belarusian Social Democrat Anatol Sidarevic pointed out that “Lukashenka with his rhetoric has been and, may be still, considered almost a Socialist.” Belarusian journalists and activists express similar views. Some write about socialism in Belarus, and others call Lukashenka “a spontaneous socialist” or even a social democrat. But in fact the Soviet-looking facade of the Belarusian regime is deceptive.

A Mark Chagall exhibition in the centre of Minsk last week became a shining example of civic-business cooperation. The statute of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania also returned to Minsk after being purchased at a Moscow antiques auction for $45,000.  The funds were raised as a result of a fundraising campaign initiated by the Mahiliou Historical Museum involving Belarusian citizens, businesses and even the National Bank. Sannikov`s female defense lawyer was barred to leave the country due to accusations of “avoiding mandatory army service”. Freedom House classifies Belarus as a consolidated autocratic regime in its "Nations in Transit 2012" report. Another seven European countries join the EU sanctions. 

In his annual address Lukashenka outlined the essence of his relationship with the official unions. Stalin would call the official Belarus trade unions driving belts of his policies. But the form of expression does not change the reality - in Belarus, the so-called trade unions constitute a specific substructure of the state apparatus. Lukashenka, as the official press is not particularly sensitive to political niceties, proudly reported that the Chairman Leanid Kozik of the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus performs his orders in the organisation entrusted to him. Therefore, all ideological, political and practical impact by the official trade unions should be considered to be an adapted version of higher-up state policy. Pension reform is just one example of it. 

On the eve of the recent visit of Vladimir Putin to Belarus, at least three important points of vulnerability of Russia's and Putin's position in relations with Belarus were revealed. First, the importance of a Belarusian foothold for Russia increases in light of the deployment of the US anti-missile defence sites on the territory of the eastern member states of NATO. Second, for quite a long period of time, Ukraine will be the priority direction of Russia's foreign policy activities. Third, the Kremlin places primary responsibility for the failure of plans to speed up the creation of the Eurasian Union on the leaders of Kazakhstan; a certain cooling in relations between Russia and Kazakhstan is another reason for Moscow not to revive sensitive issues in its relations with Belarus.

Belarusian authorities seemed to have stepped up their pressure against civil society activists over the last two weeks. They have used various tools - from warnings to administrative arrests. In some instances, there is no apparent reason for repressive actions as was the case with the academic director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Alexei Pikulik.  Pikulik detained and tried in Minsk. On May 31, Alexei Pikulik, academic director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), was arrested near his apartment building. He was accused of “hooliganism”. He was sentenced to five days arrest and had been released on June 5.

Former Belarusian colonel Vladimir Borodach published his manifesto on 1 June in which he promised to overthrow the government in 3-5 years. The idea looks unrealistic both for his opponents and potential supporters, but received much publicity in the Belarusian press because it reflects the general fatigue of opposition "losers" and their unsuccessful actions. As an example, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Audronius Ažubalis said in his interview for Carnegie Europe on 15 May that he was tired of all the plans for supporting the opposition in Belarus. He suggested that it would be better instead to create a transitional council that might be backed by the U.S. But in fact direct support of Belarusian society at large is much more important and realistic than planning alternative government structures abroad.