Putin is visiting Belarus today on his first trip abroad since his re-election as Russia's president. Alexandr Lukashenka is trying to capitalise on the worsening relations between Russia and the United States caused by the  anti-missile defence issue. It is unlikely that the Belarus government will manage to secure further expansion of Russia's economic support. However, the authorities receive additional guarantees of maintaining the economic support at the current level. At least this year, Russia will not revive sensitive issues in its relations with Belarus. Lukashenka refrained from making critical statements in relation to the Russian leadership in his annual address earlier this month to avoid creating discontent in the Kremlin. He is trying to make the West believe that Belarusian – Russian relations have been developing in the best of all possible ways.

Belarusian analytical reports and papers focused on effectiveness of foreign aid to Belarusian civil society, impact of poverty on political activism and foreign policy. Amnesty International and the US Department of State published their annual human rights reports which touch upon the situation in Belarus.  Neighborhood Program: View from Belarus – Ulad Vialichka, head of International Consortium "EuroBelarus", identifies a number of drawbacks of the international programs of development of civil society, in particular the Danish strategy for Neighbourhood countries. In his opinion, the civil society is concerned that local actors are excluded from the system of planning programs and strategies and the increasing role of external intermediaries.

Belarus Digest continues to interview former ambassadors to Belarus on their work in Belarus.  Brian Bennett served as the ambassador to of the United Kingdom in 2003-2007. He recently published a book on the country "The Last Dictatorship in Europe: Belarus Under Lukashenko".  BD: What were the brightest memories of your stay in Belarus? Without my family with me in Minsk I could be more flexible than usual about how I spent my time. I travelled a lot. The brightest memory of my stay was the Belarusians themselves. They are more socially-oriented than the British, with a strong sense of community. And they are friendly and easy to get on with.

The international conference debating the “Future of Belarus” dedicated to the 20th Anniversary of Independent Research of Belarus and the Establishment of IISEPS kicks off in Vilnius. The full program of the conference can be viewed here. Today at 12:00 Eastern European Time (EET) Belarus Digest will start live broadcast of the conference. The live broadcast stream will be available on Belarus Digest all afternoon today and all day tomorrow in accordance with the conference program. “We are grateful for the hospitality of Lithuania although feel sorry that we could not manage to organize this conference in Belarus” shared his feelings Prof. Oleg Manaev before the opening. 

Latvia has been consistently opposing economic sanctions against the Belarusian government. The EU hopes to use sanctions to persuade Belarus authorities stop human rights violations. However, Lativa is sceptical about their effectiveness and can suffer significant economic losses as a result of them. Last year the amount of bilateral trade reached a historical maximum of $33bn. Despite that, the two countries chose different geopolitical paths of development and thus their relations depend heavily on the EU and Russia – their patrons, accordingly. And while Belarus is a dictatorship and conflicts continue with the EU, it is difficult to expect any breakthroughs in Belarus-Latvia cooperation.

International Conference “Future of Belarus”. Renowned scholars, researchers, respected international experts, development professionals and civic activists from Belarus and abroad will gather in the capital of Lithuania, Vilnius on May 25-26 to debate the “Future of Belarus” at an international conference dedicated to the 20 years of independent research in Belarus and the establishment of the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS).  The conference is organised with support of USAID through Pact, the Eastern Europe Studies Center (EESC) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.  Organisers will provide live streaming from the conference over the Internet. The conference program is available here. 

On 7 May Alexander Lukashenka signed Decree No. 6, a measure that could dramatically improve the business climate in Belarus. This is one of the most advanced pieces of economic legislation adopted by the current government. The decree is a reaction to the challenges of the Eurasian economic integration project with Russia and Kazakhstan and aims to boost the attractiveness of Belarus for foreign and domestic investments. However, previous attempts to improve the business climate showed that it was not enough to adopt liberal legislation to bring about real change. The inconsistency from the government, its poor macroeconomic policy and opposition to reform from within the political elite remain the main major obstacles standing in the way of prospective investors.

This week Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka attended the jubilee summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The summit participants took stock of the organisation's evolution since its founding ten years ago on 14 May 2002, on the basis of the 1992 agreement. They also set targets for the CSTO's future development. Their goals include two potentially contradictory developments. On the one hand, they hope to enhance cooperation with the West and NATO. On the other, they are set on preventing contagion of the “Arab spring”.  Which of these two goals comes to dominate will have a profound impact on Belarus’ future. 

Last week, some opponents of the Belarusian regime called for a demonstration outside the Belarus National Theatre's performance in London. In fact, that theatre has nothing to do with political persecutions and actually represents a part of Belarusian culture disliked by many in the Belarusian regime. Should it be regarded as a part of the Belarusian regime nonetheless? Labelling individuals and organisations as parts of the regime or as working with the dictatorship may backfire. For instance, do foreign investors who implement projects in Belarus support the regime of Lukashenka? After all, their investments can change the political economy of the authoritarian regime. Or do ordinary Belarusians, who pay their taxes to the current government; is that collaboration? Failing to do so may result in chaos but would hardly aid the building of an efficient state, free of Lukashenka.

In response to the EU sanctions policy, Belarus allegedly weakened border control at the Belarus-EU border recently. This puts in doubt Belarus' willingness to implement in the nearest future local border traffic agreements with western neighbours in full. It makes the prospect of signing a readmission agreement with the EU even more remote, which in turn makes visa facilitation impossible in short term. "I can increase the number of border guards and customs posts, but you should be ready to pay", Belarusian ruler Aliaksandr Lukashenka said addressing Europeans in April, making it clear that the move comes as a response to the EU sanctions policy. The migration wave to the EU is the result of the NATO operation in Afghanistan, he added.

The most important civil society events in Belarus included the festival of Belarusian-language advertising, a civic campaign of Tell the Truth and arrests of its leaders as well as a number of training courses organised for civil society in Belarus.  AD.NAK! The 3rd Festival of Belarusian-language advertising and communications AD.NAK! opened its doors to members of the competitive program. The main objective of the 2012 festival is to give new impetus to the development of the advertising and communications market in Belarus. The idea for ​​the festival belongs to the cultural campaign Budzma Belarusians! The organising partner of the festival is online resource Marketing.by.

Lukashenka expressed on several occasions the hope that Russia would increase the volume of its subsidies to Belarus, taking into account that the West "wants to bend" him. Defence Minister Jury Zhadobin said that Russia should help through preferential supplies of gas and crude oil, so that the Belarusian military personnel get the same salary as Russian personnel: the significance of Belarus as  Russia's western outpost increases in connection with the US' plans to deploy anti-missile defence sites in Central European member countries. In 2012 the Putin administration will not revive the acute differences in its relations with Lukashenka's regime. However, Moscow is constantly sending signals that the respite that Lukashenka got from Russia's pressure is just a temporary one. 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka highlighted the need to modernise the Belarusian economy in his annual speech for the national Parliament on 8 May. These words coincide with a goal of the new EU project "Dialogue on Modernization for Belarus". But the two sides see the process of modernization quite differently. Minsk wants to avoid any political reforms while the EU is ready to provide financial assistance only after the release of all political prisoners. Despite Lukashenka's bravura rhetoric, reforms in Belarus are inevitable as the country will be forced to become a WTO member soon. Moreover, Russia guaranteed Belarus beneficial oil and gas supplies only for the next 3-4 years. It means that the country may be approaching its last chance to conduct necessary reforms before another deep crisis hits its Soviet-style economy in 2015-2016.

NGO Assembly was refused to hold its Congress the last minute.  “Here you can be served in Belarusian” campaign kicks off in Gomel. The Office for the Rights of People with Disabilities presents its survey on attitudes towards people with disabilities. EHU returns to Minsk – for the sake of an art presentation.  Congress of the Assembly of NGOs cancelled. The 7th Congress of the Assembly of pro-democratic NGOs, which was to be held on May 5-6 at the Minsk International Educational Centre (IBB), did not take place. IBB management referred to the directions from Minsk city authorities and cancelled all former arrangements two days before the Congress.