The recent pull-out of EU ambassadors from Minsk signals the deeply troubled relations between Belarus and the West. The amended and updated Belarus Democracy and Human Rights Act of 2011 that was signed by US President Barack Obama in January outlines the official policy and maintains sanctions that have been in place for several years.The proposed goals of the West, however, remain largely unfulfilled. The increased isolation has affected Belarus as a whole and despite the clear messages sent to denounce violations of human rights and democratic norms, civil society remains very weak and Belarus’ economy has become even more anchored to Russian subsidies. In the months ahead a clear strategy must be developed that goes beyond sanctions and intimidation.

Belarus is turning away from the Orthodox Church. That is what statistics presented last week by Lieanid Huliaka, the Commissioner for Religions and Nationalities suggests. Belarusian protestants are the most active churchgoers, while Orthodox Christians are the least active. Only state support allows the Orthodox Church to keep up the appearance that it dominates religious life in Belarus.  According to the official statistics 59 percent of Belarusian citizens are Orthodox Christians, while just 12 percent are considered Catholics. But while only 18 percent of Orthodox believers attend mass regularly - every second Catholic does. Indeed, during Christmas 2011, only 254,000 Orthodox Christians attended mass, just 14,000 more than the total number of Catholics who attended. And despite state repression and restrictions, the Protestant communities remain vigorous and numerous in Belarus. 

As the new diplomatic war between Belarus and the European Union unfolds, Belarus may lose its right to host the World Ice Hockey Championship in 2014. Because of problems with democracy and human rights The Congress of the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) may reconsider its decision taken three years ago. According to IIHF Communications Director Szymon Szemberg, the reason is numerous demands from human rights groups and Western governmental organisations. IIHF President Rene Fasel stated in the past that sports had nothing to do with politics. But in Belarus sports are much more than just sports. It is one of the ideological pillars of Aleksandr Lukashenka’s politics.  

How interesting is Belarus for Europeans? This was the question held in mind by a group of students of European Affairs in Sciences Po Paris, who have been conducting for already five months a project dedicated to Belarus, 'Бelarus Project'. To find the answer to this question, they have interviewed a good number of young, and not so young, people from Europe and from all over the world.  The survey was completed in the first days of 2012 by more than 233 people. 63% of the respondents, aged between 20 and 35 years, were either from Italy, Germany or France. The rest represented citizens from all the other countries of the European Union. As is common, there were some exceptions: some replies arrived from Russia, Peru, Brazil, Egypt and even from Japan. Three simple questions were asked: why is Belarus interesting, why is it not interesting, and what would you like to find out about it. Here is what people replied.

On 21 February 2012 Belarusian finance minister Andrei Kharkovec announced Belarus' plan to restore its positions in international ratings which suffered following the recent economic crisis. The state news agency Belta also announced that the main Chinese rating agency Dagong will give Belarus a sovereign credit rating in the near future. Authorities hope to use it in order to attract Asian investments into the Belarusian economy. European states and companies are reluctant to invest huge sums of money into the Belarusian economy which is still on the brink of economic collapse with its B- credit rating, one that is very close to the rating of Greece. Only consistent market reforms, renewal of cooperation with the IMF and large-scale privatisation of the state property may improve the situation. 

This week is marked with significant intensification of civil society activities, in particular in the field of human rights. Civil society organisations are adopting new charity technologies through online tools and attempt advocacy attempts, and it seems that governmental bodies began to make available draft laws for public discussion. Challenges of EU strategy towards Belarus discussed in Minsk. On February 18, a ‘round table’ initiated by Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies took place in Minsk. Its agenda included the challenges of the EU – Belarus relations and their development, as well as the impact that the visa ban imposed on some representatives of the Belarusian regime has on the EU – Belarus relations. The round table was attended by about 20 members of the Belarusian expert community, civil society and human rights organisations.

Last week, President Lukashenka approved an agreement with Russia to establish the Single Regional System of Air Defence. The defence ministers of the two nations already signed the controversial treaty three years ago. Russian and Belarusian presidents will jointly  appoint the commander of the air defence system. This effectively means that a portion of the Belarusian armed forces will be brought under Russian command. Earlier this month, Lukashenka asked Russia to help finance the Belarusian army. The statement provoked controversy, prompting Defence Minister Yury Zhadobin to explain that the words of his commander-in-chief were intended as an invitation to increase bilateral cooperation. The German magazine Spiegel commented that Belarus is "losing its autonomy step by step.” In reality, Belarus does not need to maintain such a large, well-armed military in the first place - the only reason it does so is to serve Moscow.

The September 2012 Parliamentary elections offer a chance for the opposition to reconnect with the wider Belarusian population rather than retain the current status quo. Even though some economic pressure on the regime has been lifted by the latest deals with the Russians, the population is increasingly looking for alternative sources of information and for different visions of how Belarus could develop. Against the background of the recent Russian protests, the upcoming election campaign is a major window of opportunity – if exploited to the full – for the opposition.  Elections provide a time of heightened interest for the population in the political situation of the country, and are therefore the perfect time to re-build party structures comprising activists willing to carry out political activity today. In spite of this, the opposition remain divided about how they should approach this campaign. Alternative strategies include a boycott, an “active boycott” involving submitting candidates and withdrawing before election day, and running fully committed candidates through the entire electoral process.

Western and Belarusian analysts discuss Europe's policy towards Belarus, the forthcoming parliamentary elections, transformation from  the populism relying on the masses safeguarding the interests of the narrow interests of the Belarusian ruling elite. Anais Marin: I am Shocked by the Cynicism of the EU Towards Belarus – Why ordinary Belarusians are getting nothing from the European Union, and whether there is a common position of European officials on the "partnership"? Anais Marin, an expert of the Finnish Institute of International Relations working on Eastern Partnership gives her answers. She points that the EU only thinks about its own interests and that the European External Action Service are rather cynical about Belarus. The EU only keeps insisting on the political prisoners release without offering anything to the population of Belarus.

Belarusian opposition activist Siarhei Kavalenka may soon die as a result of a 59-day hunger strike against his criminal prosecution. He and other 14 opposition and civil society activists remain in prisons for their political views. US and EU officials, including Hillary Clinton and Catherine Ashton, repeatedly called for a release of all political prisoners before any negotiations with Belarus on improvement of bilateral relations. However, Belarusian authorities are not keen to listen after Russia agreed to supply them oil and gas on extremely beneficial terms.  Like other authoritarian rulers, Alexander Lukashenka tries to isolate potential leaders from different social backgrounds who might be dangerous for his grip on power. Authorities initiate administrative prosecution to suppress everyday activities and criminal cases usually target the most influential activists or organisations. The idea is that it would also deter others from attempts to damage the regime. Imprisonment and release of political prisoners seems to be linked to the election cycle in Belarus and Russia's economic subsidies. 

Relations between Belarus and Poland have deteriorated in the recent decade, as Warsaw openly supported Belarusian opposition more than all of the other European nations put together. Earlier this month yet another war of words took place.  Poland officially protested against a new Belarusian film The Old Talasz that is devoted to the 1920 Soviet-Polish War waged in Belarus.  Last week the Polish Foreign Ministry accused the film producers of caricaturing Polish characters and "using the wrong history vision to drive a wedge in close relations between Polish and Belarusian societies". Rzeczpospolita, the second largest Polish daily, published a long article on Belarusian-Polish relations in the inter-war period and expressed its concern about unfair and inaccurate representation of Polish soldiers. However, many in Belarus remain unpersuaded by the myth of a free and prosperous life of Belarusians under a Polish administration in early 20th century. Good relations between Belarusians and Poles today do not mean that they need to forget their history or let their governments abuse it for their own purposes. 

Belarusian authorities failed to release political prisoners despite some submitting pardon petitions to Lukashenka. In the past, Alexander Lukashenka has hinted that as soon as he received a pardon request from them they would be released. The authorities also intensified the propaganda campaign against independent journalists and protestants, expelled several students from a Minsk-based university and continued to create obstacles for human rights organisations and activists.  Three European Belarus Activists Expelled. Activists of the European Belarus civic campaign Alexander Soldatenko, Alexander Velitchenko and Nikita Kovalenko have been expelled from the Minsk State Linguistic University. Earlier, all three youngsters were arrested and sentenced to between 7 and 15 days imprisonment for participating in the October 2011 solidarity actions with political prisoners. 

On 20 January 2012, the authorities approved a new strategy to attract foreign direct investments. This document can be regarded as a new invitation for foreign business with advanced technologies to take part in privatization in Belarus. The authorities hope that Western businesses will come despite the country's poor human rights record and their failure to release all political prisoners.  Although the Belarusian authorities welcome energy subsidies from Russia and participate in Russia-sponsored integration projects such as the Single Economic Space, they are reluctant to invite big Russian business in. The pace of Belarusian privatization is slow - although many trade and service enterprises were privatized, medium and large industrial enterprises still remain in state hands.  

The frosty winter which is paralyzing many European capitals has hit Belarus hard. While public services work efficiently in the capital, many in various regions and the homeless suffer from the cold. In Minsk, the city administration has taken measures to deal with the cold weather which is exceptional even for Belarus. In the small villages, however, people often end up being cut off from the rest of the world by snow.   While public life does not come to a standstill in Belarus because of the winter, it is still unusually cold. Last week, on 2 February, the country has seen the coldest day and night since the beginning of weather recording in 1917. On that day, the average temperature in Minsk was -21 °C.