Official Minsk refused to take part in the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw this week. According to the special statement made by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 30 September, the organizers of the Eastern Partnership Summit have applied an unprecedented discriminatory measures towards Belarus. In addition to the Summit, this week Warsaw hosted a number of other Belarus-related events including the OSCE Human Dimension Implementation Meeting (26 September-7 October 2011) and an international conference titled “The Eastern Partnership Conference: towards a European Community of democracy, prosperity and a stronger civil society” (29 September 2011). Representatives of Belarusian civil society and opposition had several opportunities to meet with top EU politicians and partners from other countries in the region. 

At a meeting last week, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka did his best to persuade the Armenian foreign minister of Belarus’ goodwill. But this was hardly convincing - the halcyon days of close relations between the two countries are long gone. Now Minsk is clearly siding with Azerbaijan, even though the latter is opposing Russian policy in the South Caucasus. The USD 300 million loan given by the Azerbaijani president to Lukashenka this summer and visit to Baku by the Belarusian prime minister in July were just some recent signs of a strong partnership between Aliev and Lukashenka. Besides its neighboring nations in the post-Soviet area, Belarus maintains very close relations with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. In the late 2000s Azerbaijan apparently became the single most important customer buying significant amount of weapons from Belarus.

Belarus is on the verge of breaching one of its serious international ecological commitments. If the government plans to extinguish Belarusian swamps goes ahead, this could have implications for the rest of Europe. This summer, the Belarusian government launched a new initiative on energy generation, which will lead to the extinction of the last large swamps in Belarus. These swamps are the only natural territories of their kind in the European temperate climate zone, which were not disturbed by human activities. The Government Decision №794 of 17 June 2011 approved peat extraction in some areas including eight natural bogs in the country. In effect that would lead to extermination of that peat.

Belarusian authorities increasingly target those who receive financial support from international and foreign donors. Years ago they cut off virtually all sources of domestic financial support of civil society. Now they have stepped up their efforts to punish those who manage to find external funding and fail to comply with the draconian domestic regulation of foreign aid. Even after the arrest of Ales Byaliatski on tax fraud charges, representatives of donors fail to take the necessary measures not to worsen the risks which Belarusian activists have to deal with.   POLITICS Investigations on relationships with foreign funds. On 22 September, Aliaksandr Silkou, Mahiliou regional coordinator of the movement “For Freedom”, was interrogated by a local customs department over smuggling charges. According to the activist, Brest police detained a Polish citizen Mr. Jaskowicki and seized a grant application with Mr. Silkou’s name on it as the stated applicant. On 22 September, Head of Hrodna branch of Belarusian Popular Front Vadzim Saranchukou was interrogated by the KGB about the relationship he has with foreign funds. Officials also mentioned a Polish citizen detained at the border who was carrying financial information, but with a different name.

As the global economy teeters on the brink of breakdown, Belarus’ own financial woes still get a mention in Western financial news. In political terms, suspected links between Belarusian business and the Iranian nuclear programme, as well as the beginning of the Minsk bomb attack trial, have gained some attention over the last month. Nuclear Allies in Iran. Reuters reported on allegations that Belarus is helping Iran to skirt the UN sanctions against it expanding its nuclear programme. The exclusive report states that Western diplomats have intimated that Belarus is working as middlemen to enable Iran to purchase Russian technology to develop their nuclear capacity. One specific Belarusian businessman is implicated. If the allegations are true, Belarus would join China, North Korea, Russia and the UAE among others in illegally supporting Iranian nuclear missile procurement and manufacture.

In August, speaking at a meeting of the Government, Vice Prime Minister Siarhiej Rumas expressed the need to work out a strategy of repayment of the growing external debt of Belarus. According to Rumas, by the end of 2011 the ratio of the external debt to the GDP will reach 69% to 73%. Taking into account such a large amount of the external debt, the payments will also increase. Only for the existing external debt, the payments will amount to over 3 billion dollars in 2013 and 2014. This is a very significant sum for Belarus.  The IMF report on the results of monitoring the development of Belarus' economy in 2010 and 2011 contains an even more dismal prognosis on the ability of Belarus to service its external obligations. According to the Fund's experts, the need for external financing in Belarus will amount to 15,3 billion dollars in 2011, 13,4 billion in 2012, and 14,1 billion in 2013. In order to serve the external debt, Belarus will need 5,3 billion dollars in 2011, 4,9 billion in 2012, and 4,8 billion in the period from 2013 to 2016.

This year for the first time since its kick-off in 1997, there will be no Minsk Forum conference. The international conference, bringing together representatives of Belarusian and international political and economic organisations once a year in Minsk, has been the biggest international conference of its kind for many years. Having started on a small scale 14 years ago, the conference has grown and has been a significant fixed point for everybody working with Belarus. Every year in late autumn, state and non-state actors involved with Belarus would meet in Minsk to discuss projects, take part in panels and network.

Eleven more released last week, but the most important political prisoners - three former presidential candidates and a leading human rights activist, are still in jail. On the civil society front, the most visible events relate to promotion of European values and the new wave of Belarusian political immigration abroad.  POLITICS  Eleven more political prisoners released. On 14 September, Lukashenka pardoned eleven more activists convicted in the mass riot case of the Ploscha events on 19 December 2010. They are Paval Vinahradau (“Tell the Truth” activist), Aliaksander Klaskouski Jr. (a former policeman), Uladimir Loban, Dzmitry Novik, Fiodar Mirzayanau, Aleh Fedarkevich, Dzmitry Bulanau, Aliaksandr Malchanau, Aliaxandr Atroshchenkau (Sannikov’s press-secretary), Ilya Vasilevich and Mikita Likhavid (“For Freedom” movement activist). Most of the these individuals declare that they did not write pardon petitions to Lukashenka.

Every month of this year was filled with stories from Belarus about predominantly closed trials of political opposition activists, rally participants, human rights defendants, and journalists. This week’s show trial seems different. In the court cage are Vladislav Konovalov and Dmitry Kovalyov, suspected in the Minsk subway bombing on April 11, which left 15 people dead and 200 wounded. Konovalov pleaded guilty and acknowledged committing four other terrorist attacks since 2005. Kovalyov, his alleged accomplice, withdrew his earlier confession. However, while unprecedented in its own right, the trial shares some features with many other Belarus trials. 

Thousands of shoppers from Russia cross the Belarusian border every day to buy large quantities of cheap Belarusian goods. Shopping in Belarus became very attractive after the Belarusian rouble lost over a half of its value in 2011.  Belarusian shops cannot satisfy the demand of Russian consumers and often run out of stock, leaving the locals without essential goods. Some shops have begn to introduce rationing and refuse to sell more than a certain quantity to satisfy as many people as possible. That results in quarrels and even clashes between local Belarusians and Russian shoppers.

Last week Belarusian analysts were busy discussing Lukashenka's proposal to negotiate with his opponents and the West on how to combat the crises in Belarus. A few days following his proposal Lukashenka said he never meant to discuss anything with the opposition, he only wanted to talk to the West.  Uladzimir Matskevich: What Should We Understand Today? Uladzimir Matskevich talks about Lukashenka’s proposal for a dialogue with the opposition. He believes that Lukashenka has not offered anything concrete and will try to deceive everyone once again.

The Belarusian authorities intensify their pressure on Viasna, the most active human rights organization in the country. Based on materials the Belarusian authorities received from Lithuania and Poland, they have kept Viasna's chairman Ales Byaliatski in prison since August. This month they charged Valiantsin Stefanovich with tax evasion - the number two person at Viasna.  POLITICS  Tax inspection against Valiantsin Stefanovich.The Partyzansky district court of Minsk is considering a lawsuit against human rights activist Valiantsin Stefanovich. He is accused of failing to pay more than Br37 million (approx. $7,400) in taxes. The amount of unpaid taxes has been calculated based on information about his foreign accounts, details of which were transferred to Belarus from Lithuania and Poland.

While Belarusian authorities bitterly criticize NATO intervention in Libya, they actively advocate the idea of foreign troops helping post-Soviet dictators remain in power.  Since July Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka has sought to strengthen the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). He proposed to turn the CSTO into an anti-revolution alliance.  Although yesterday Russian daily Izvestia quoted an anonymous Kremlin official saying that the Belarusian leader “vulgarized” the idea and there was no agreement on using the CSTO to prevent coup-d'etats,* changes in the organization can seriously reconfigure post-Soviet politics.

Under pressure from the West, Belarusian authorities have begun to release political prisoners. It appears that Lukashenka is prepared to take a long time to release all prisoners to reap as many benefits as possible. Over a dozen protestors and three former presidential candidates have been in custody since 2010.  POLITICS  Lukashenka negotiates release of political prisoners. Reuters reported that Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nikolai Mladenov met Lukashenka in Minsk last week. According to Mladenov's letter obtained by Reuters, Lukashenka has agreed to release at least four prisoners by the end of this week and drop charges against another two. All remaining political activists would be released by the beginning of October.