"It's just the beginning" reads the top headline of Belarus Today, the main official newspaper in Belarus.  The story covers not the economic crisis in Belarus but the ongoing riots in London. The newspaper hints that reduction in unemployment benefits and subsidies on youth and social centers were the main reasons for London riots. Belarus Today stopped short of comparing the London riots to protests in Belarus organized through social networks this summer. But the article does draw a parallel with the Arab spring.  According to the official newspaper, "Londoners who were inspired by Twitter revolutions are now logging on Facebook with fear to see which district of the capital will be next". The comparison is straightforward but wrong.

Yesterday Mikalay Khalezin, the head of the Belarus Free Theatre accused Lithuania of handing information about accounts of Belarusian activists and NGOs in Lithuanian banks to the Lukashenka regime. At first it was hard to believe what Khalezin wrote in his blog. But on the next day the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice confirmed it. According to Belarusian press, having assessed this information from Lithuania, the KGB of Belarus has arrested a well-known human rights activist Ales Bialiatski, a 2006 Nobel Prize nominee. The authorities accused him of 'concealment of income at a particularly large scale'.  Viasna, the largest and most efficient human rights group in Belarus, thought that its bank accounts in Lithuania were outside the reach of the Belarusian regime. They were wrong.

The news of the week is yesterday's arrest of a prominent Belarusian human rights activist Ales Bialiatsky. The arrest reportedly followed release of information by Lithuanian Ministry of Justice to Belarus authorities about around 400 bank accounts of Belarusian opposition activists, groups and NGOs. Rights activist Ales Bialiatsky is in custody. On the evening of 4 August, Ales Bialiatsky, Head of Human Rights Center Viasna, was taken into custody after interrogation in the Department of Financial Investigations of the State Control Committee. Bialiatsky is detained for three days as a suspect in the case under Article 243-2 of the Criminal Code (evasion of taxes and fees on a large scale). The maximum penalty for this article stipulates imprisonment for up to seven years with confiscation of property.

On 23 September 2011 the first annual congress of Belarusian social science scholars will begin in Lithuania. It will bring together a wide spectrum of political scientists, historians, sociologists and experts from other disciplines. Belarus Digest is the event's partner. We interviewed Andrei Kazakevich – who chairs the organizing committee of the first International Congress of Belarusian Studies. BD: Why do you organise this Congress and why outside Belarus? Initially, we planned to organize an annual event only for political scientists. But then we found out that there were no regular social science conferences for Belarusian social science scholars. In the past, there were similar conferences on Belarusian philology and linguistics. But political scientists, sociologists, philosophers, historians and representatives of other disciplines do not have any regular congresses. We decided to broaden the congress concept and to offer space for public and professional communication to all scientists engaged in Belarusian studies. political science, history, sociology and history of ideas will constitute the core of the Congress. 

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made a provocative statement at a pro-Kremlin youth forum this week. When asked about Belarus and Russia becoming a single state, following the USSR model, the former president said: "It is possible, very desirable and depends entirely on the will of the Belarusian people." A participant of the Russian Youth Forum in Seliger, described by Russian state media as a "representative of Belarus" said that Belarusian people want to join Russia in a single state. "So you should fight for it", Putin replied. Putin has made almost an identical statement about South Ossetia joining Russia. It would sound outrageous if the German chancellor expressed a wish to annex Austria or a British prime minister would say that he saw Ireland joining the United Kingdom “very desirable”. However, the reality of the post-Soviet area is that such statements are being made and tolerated.

Opposition politicians regularly accuse Belarusian government of dubious arms dealings. The recent sanctions of the European Union imposed against Beltechexport, the largest Belarusian arms exporter, are also based on the same premises. Is Belarus really a serious player on the global market of weapons? Detailed information on trade in weapons is difficult to obtain inside the country, and only the UN Register on Trade in Conventional Arms yearly publishes information on these arms deals. This publication contains no information on the contracts’ sums. According to the UN data, in 2010, Minsk sold Yemen sixty six tanks T-80, Sudan – one Su-25, Nigeria — two attack helicopters Мі-24, Uganda — one Мі-24, Azerbaijan — one Su-25 and 30 122-mm towed howitzers D-30.

Belarus authorities continue their crackdown against all new forms of protests.  Initially security services were unprepared to actions such as Stop Petrol or Social Networks Revolution. But subsequently they found ways, often illegal even under Belarusian law, to prevent and disperse the protests. The authorities tolerate neither single person pickets nor car owners protests fearing that they could develop into serious threats for them. The civil society and NGO activities remain low due to the summer season and the general decline after the crackdown which followed the December presidential elections.

Since March 2011 Belarus suffers from a severe economic crisis. While the vast majority of Belarusians struggle to afford very basic things, others are making fortunes. The reasons why neo Soviet economy of Lukashenka has failed are well known to economists. Without a steady input of foreign currency it has simply collapsed. The main recipe how to deal with the crises is the same from East to West - Belarus must switch to a more market oriented economy. The first step what Russia and the IMF demand is liberalization of the foreign exchange market. If the authorities have no resources to support the local currency – they should let it fall. It will be a shock at first, but in medium- and long term it will boost the exports and give a chance for many to recover. However, some influential forces in Belarus are against this seemingly logical step.

Belarusian analysts discuss the reasons for decline in the "silent revolution" and the future effects of the deepening economic crisis in Belarus. Most analysts agree that Belarus economic and political system will undergo a stress test this autumn, which will show whether the system can last much longer. Results of the political season. Political analyst Andrey Suzdaltsev admits tactical victory, but strategic defeat of the Belarusian authorities during the spring-summer political season. The authorities could not offer an ideological alternative to the "network revolution", were unable to launch any organic pro-Lukashenka initiatives. The main conclusion is the ideological bankruptcy of the Lukashenka regime. Suzdaltsev predicts more severe economic problems and new forms of protests later this year.

Jean-Eric Holzapfel, Chargé d’Affaires of the EU Delegation to Belarus since 2006, will leave the country at the end of July upon expiry of his diplomatic mission. Before returning to Brussels, he agreed to give an interview to Belarus Digest. On 20 July we talked about his time in Belarus and the current situation in the country. BD: What did you expect when coming to Belarus? When I applied for the post, I wanted to discover this part of Europe. I had never lived here, and I wanted to be involved in developing EU-Belarus relations. I wanted to learn about the culture. In an ideal world, I would have liked to learn Belarusian as well, but for now I am happy I could study Russian during my time here.

Western media often spread myths about the extent of Internet censorship in Belarus.  Many have the impression that all or many social media sites have been shut down or blocked by Belarusian KGB. The truth is that unlike television or FM radio, Internet access remains largely unrestricted in Belarus. 

The decline in Belarusians' income led to the corresponding reduction of Lukashenka’s rating. However, the regime's opponents' popularity did not grow significantly. The Independent Institute for Social, Economic, and Political Studies conducted a sociological survey in Belarus last month. According to the research findings, 73.4% of respondents noted that their economic conditions had deteriorated during the previous three months. 23.2% of respondents stated that the standard of their well-being hadn’t changed. Only 1.6% of repondents noted that their economic conditions had improved. The similar indicators totaled 16%, 57.7%, and 24.9% correspondingly in December 2010 and amounted to 26.9%, 54.8%, and 17.2% correspondingly in March 2011.

Last week Russian President Medvedev removed the remaining obstacles for Belarusians who want to work in Russia. Now Belarusian citizens have virtually the same rights as Russia's own nationals. By equalising the rights of Belarusian nationals with its own nationals Russia plans to take away something more valuable than Belarusian plants and factories - its people. The difference in the level of commitment of the European Union and Russia is striking. Russian government removes all restrictions on movement and employment of Belarusian nationals. European governments fail to agree on simplification of visa procedures for Belarusians. Russia launches anti-Lukashenka PR campaigns in Belarus using its TV channels to convey the benefits of integration with Russia. Europe does little to promote its values considering them self-evident.  Russia provided billions in subsidies to the Belarusian economy while Europe usually comes up with a new set of conditions, which cost nothing.

The development of the crisis in Belarus has slowed down and the macroeconomic situation has been temporarily balanced. The state program of privatization struggles to achieve its goals because of the lack of buyers but the foreign trade balance is improving because Belarusian goods are relatively cheap. The government failed to adopt market rate for foreign currency exchange despite calls from the business community and its own ministries. More importantly, the government apparently has no robust plan to reform the economy. Exchange rate. The government appears to have abandoned its plans concerning the revitalization of the foreign exchange market in the near future and bringing the official exchange rate to the market level. Moreover, to date, the preservation of restrictions on the free access to the foreign currency for importers and the public began to be openly considered by the authorities as an important factor of improving the foreign trade balance and preservation of the gold and foreign exchange reserves. Currently, the non-cash foreign currency market has split into a number of interdepartmental centers of foreign exchange allocation.