On 6 November 2016 Milivoje Katnich, the Chief Special Prosecutor of Montenegro, gave a statement regarding the failed coup attempt in Podgorica during the Parliamentary elections on 16 October 2016. According to him, several groups of Russian and Russian-backed Serbian nationalists were behind the coup; they were hoping to prevent Montenegro from joining NATO and the EU. The fact that the Kremlin was able to plan such an operation in Montenegro leaves no doubts as to its capabilities to launch a similar plot in Belarus. Analysing last year's joint Belarusian and Russian military exercises, which were developed by the Russian General Staff, also arouses suspicions.
Despite some recent positive trends in relations between Belarus and Poland, several unresolved issues hamper their full normalisation. Warsaw remains largely bound by the European Union’s official policy towards Minsk. The Belarusian authorities are suspicious of Poland’s support of democratic forces in Belarus. Meanwhile, Poland’s conservative government has recently shown greater independence from Brussels on many policy issues. They have also visibly reduced their support of the Belarusian opposition, to the latter's great chagrin. This has led to tacit approbation from Lukashenka’s government.
On 31 October, several years after imports of non-Russian oil into Belarus ceased, the first cargo train carrying Azerbaijani oil reached a refinery in the Belarusian city of Mazyr. Although the Belarusian government has so far imported only a limited amount of alternative oil, Minsk has nevertheless demonstrated to other nations that this is possible. This has changed the geopolitics of the region forever. Despite Moscow's opposition, Belarus is also trying to involve Ukraine and the Baltic states in its efforts at diversification. Nevertheless, on 10 November, the governments of Belarus and Ukraine discussed how to use modernised Belarusian refineries and Ukrainian ports for each other's interests during a meeting of the Belarus-Ukrainian commission on economic cooperation.
On 7 November 2016, the anniversary of the October Revolution, a newly renovated statue of Lenin appeared in the Belarusian capital. The controversial reactions to it culminated in the disruption of the unveiling ceremony. Until now, commemoration of the October Revolution in Belarus has taken place mostly by inertia. 7 November remains a public holiday, reintroduced in the calendar back in 1995. Ordinary Belarusians tend to ignore it: for them it is no more than another long weekend. Only communists and their sympathisers gather to hold rallies and lay flowers at the feet of Lenin monuments.
Belarus tries to attract investments from the Persian Gulf states. The EU suggests closer cooperation with Belarus in the energy sector. Belarus ranks 37th in the world in the Doing Business-2017 report. The government introduces significant amendments to animal welfare legislation. The KEF-Economic Forum 2016 finishes in Minsk; it attracted businessmen, economists, bankers, and experts from the IMF and UN. This and more in the new edition of the state press digest.
Last week's visit by the Russian Minister of Defence clearly demonstrated the Kremlin’s intentions to undermine the image of Belarus as a country with a predictable and neutral military and foreign policy. The confrontation between NATO and Russia, as a manifestation of the New Cold War, has direct implications for the independence, sovereignty and national security of Belarus. There is a risk that Russia will manage to transform Belarus into a Cold War outpost in order to generate conventional and hybrid threats to NATO member states and Ukraine. The Kremlin may also destabilise the political and military situation in Belarus if it decides that Aliaksandr Lukashenka is crossing too many red lines.
Kastryčnicky Ekanamičny Forum (KEF 2016) took place in Minsk with over 500 participants including high level stakeholders from government, international (financial) institutions, business and civil society. Minsk Dialogue holds a conference on pan-European integration. Small vendors draft People's Law. Trade unions and human rights organisations discuss a strategy against the law on parasitism. DisRights Office presents an alternative report on women rights with disabilities. Eduard Palčys is released in the courtroom with a 21 month restriction of freedom sentence.
Audio podcasts from the conference ‘Belarusian Studies in the 21st Century’ held in London in March 2016 became available online. The conference served as a multidisciplinary forum of Belarusian studies for researchers of Belarus in the West covering a wide range of topics - from history and foreign policy of Belarus to public art and digital engagement. The Ostrogorski Centre and the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies organised the conference in partnership with Francis Skaryna Belarusian Library and Museum, Anglo-Belarusian Society, and the Journal of Belarusian Studies.
On 13 October Belarusian border guards received EU-funded special equipment worth €2.5m. This will help Minsk control the Ukrainian border. There is an element of irony in this: although it works to remove borders within the EU, Brussels is helping to construct them in the rest of Europe. If Belarus succeeds in sealing off its border with Ukraine, its Russian border will be the only one to remain open. However, despite decades of integration, the status of this border is precarious. In mid-September, the Kremlin closed its border with Belarus for third-nation nationals without any prior notice - thus ruining Minsk's plans of becoming a transit country. Belarus still has serious problems with the development of adequate border control agencies, as their dependence on foreign aid, as well as allegations of corruption, reveal.
With the summer holiday period finally over, Belarusian diplomacy has gone into overdrive. In September – October, Belarusian officials spoke with representatives of over thirty nations, ranging from deputy foreign ministers to heads of state. Poland has transformed from being Belarus's staunchest critic to its main advocate in Europe. The search for new export and investment opportunities has been the central element of most of these meetings. Geographically, Belarusian officials favoured Europe, Asia, the Middle East and former Soviet countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union - for the most part Russia's adversaries.
On 17 October 2016, new macroeconomic data from Belstat, Belarus's national statistical committee, indicated that this year's economic decline seems to have finally halted. The GDP stopped falling and foreign trade saw a slight revival. However, on 21 September the IMF warned the Belarusian authorities about new threats to macroeconomic stability, namely the high level of bad assets in the banking sector and the sustainability of state debt.
The autumn of 2016 has seen many plans to boost investment in Belarus. On 17 September Minsk hosted the first Belarus-Oman business forum, while on 29-30 September the Belarusian capital hosted the Belarusian Forum: "Broadening Horizons. Investment. Finance. Development". Moreover, autumn has become a traditional season for hosting the German-Belarusian "Minsk Forum."
Ostrogorski Centre analyzes Belarusian foreign and national security policy. Belarus Security Blog releases the September analysis of the situation in the field of national security and defence. Prelude to KEF 2016: Aliaksandr Čubryk argues that the key reason for Belarus‘ negotiations with IMF is the recognition of structural reform needs. Grigory Ioffe: a healthy dose of realpolitik might be a good prescription for the Belarus’ indecision malaise between Russia and West. Belarus in Focus: since the September parliamentary elections, the general political trends in the country remain. Analysts consider why Lukashenka wants to change the Constitution.
On 12 October 2016 Belarus announced its intention to adopt a national action plan for a green economy. This September the country also ratified the Paris Climate Change Agreement. What's more, the European Union has invested over €10m in a project aiming to fascilitate Belarus’ transition to a green economy. What a "green economy" entails could be anything from simply recycling to increased use of renewable energy sources, all areas in which Belarus needs improvement. According to some calculations, the average Belarusian produces 1–1.5 kg of garbage per day. This adds up to roughly 300kg of garbage a year. In Belarus, only about 12% of this amount will be recycled. The rest goes to landfills.