The Belarusian expert community vigorously debated three topics last week: the EU-Belarus diplomatic conflict, the deepening dependence of Belarus upon Russia and capital punishment. EU-Belarus Conflict A Letter to a European Friend – Siarhey Dubavets uses physics terminology to make the point that by pressuring a substance, one cannot destroy it, but rather push the substance in any given direction. He argues that the EU policy of sanctions towards Belarus is pushing the country towards Russia instead of Europe. He questions why Europe is so focused on punishing the regime, forgetting to influence the people of Belarus. He thinks the most effective and cost-effective measure would be to open Europe to Belarusians and remove visa barriers. 

German-Belarusian relations are currently at an all-time low. The tension is rising, and it is still uncertain when the German ambassador will return to Minsk. In the meantime, the Belarusian authorities are doing everything possible to further deteriorate relations. As a result, all major German parties now support new sanctions against Belarus.  When Polish and EU ambassadors were asked to leave Belarus, German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle declared that “an act against Poland or the EU was an act against Germany at the same time”, so the German ambassador to Belarus, Dr Christof Weil, was called to return to Berlin for consultations.

Diplomatic scandal with the European Union, political prisoners and economic sanctions remain in the focus of attention of Belarusian analysts. Other topics include the effect of Putin's election as president in Russia, the state of the legal profession in Belarus, and a review of human rights violations in February 2012.  Why doesn't Lukashenka Release Political Prisoners? – The Warsaw-based Solidarity with Belarus Information Office's analysts note that “the release of political prisoners in exchange for ending of the conflict with the EU is perceived by Minsk as a very bad deal”. Firstly, it brings no economic benefits for the country. Secondly, the Belarusian elite, raised by Alexander Lukashenka, will certainly perceive such a move as a weakness of the President. 

This month the EU External Action faced a stubborn unwillingness by two post-Soviet countries to listen to its advice on political reforms. As the diplomatic scandal unfolded in Minsk, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry protested against the behaviour of the EU Ambassador to Ukraine. At the same time, both countries are under increasing pressure from Moscow to participate in its new integration initiatives. These developments should motivate Belarus and Ukraine to actively cooperate on the basis of common interests. But instead the two countries often clash with each other. For example, in March Ukraine prohibited imports of Belarusian meat and dairy products. It raises the question of whether Victor Yanukovych and Alexander Lukashenka have enough political will to improve their relations and strengthen sovereignty of their countries.

Today Lukashenka is taking part in the Interstate Council of the Eurasian Economic Community in Moscow to "give new momentum to the integration processes." With no EU ambassadors in Minsk, relations between Belarus and Western nations are at their lowest point in the country's independent history. The Belarusian government is increasingly relying on Moscow in its new conflict with the EU. In February, Lukashenka and Medvedev issued a joint statement that Western economic pressure on Belarus is unacceptable. Last Sunday, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that sanctions against Belarus threatened  the economic security not only of Belarus but also the entire Customs Union, including Russia. It is no wonder then that for the first time in years a top functionary of the Belarusian regime talked about the introduction of the Russian rouble in Belarus. Has Lukashenka lost the equilibrium between the West and Russia?

Belarusian government recently reaffirmed its desire to become a top-30 nation in the World Bank’s Doing Business Report. To assess how well local authorities across the country pursue this goal a number of Belarusian organisations organised a special competition – “The Best Town/District and Oblast for Doing Business in Belarus”.  The latest competition results were announced at the Assembly of the Business Circles of Belarus at the end of February. Now the Belarusian business community and potential foreign investors know where their entrepreneurial activity can yield the highest profit in 2012. But because of the voluntary and populist methods of economic governance in Belarus both entrepreneurs and officials are sceptical that the country will land in the top-30 of the most favourable places to do business.

To understand the balance of power in Belarus it is important to understand the role of the siloviki (the security services). Although they affect political decision-making and the degree of violence in domestic politics they are not a predominant group within the ruling elite.  Modern History of Belarus Security Services In 1999 – 2003, heads of security (KGB, Internal Ministry) and controlling (Committee of the State Control, Prosecutor's Office) bodies headed by Viktar Sheiman an old ally and friend of Lukashenka had significant influence on the foreign and domestic policy of Belarusian authorities. Sheiman served as Prosecutor General and State Secretary of the Security Council. Regardless of what position Sheiman held, he chaired extended meetings of the heads of security and controlling bodies. 

Belarusian authorities create problems for opposition activists who are crossing Belarusian borders. Isolation of the country is increasing. Following the departure of EU ambassadors, the IMF decided not to have any resident representative in Belarus and the country's representatives were missing at an Eastern Partnership meeting in Prague.  Anatoly Lebedko not allowed to leave Belarus. On 7 March, United Civil Party leader Anatoly Lebedko was not allowed to leave the territory of the European Union on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border. According to the politician, he was detained at the border checkpoint Kamenny Loh under restriction to leave Belarus. Two other opposition leaders - Siarhei Kaliakin and Viktar Karnienka were not allowed to cross the border.   They subsequently managed to get to Lithuania, presumably through Russia. 

The fresh conflict between the EU and Belarus kept the analytical community busy and organised civil society. Experts also analysed why Belarusian authorities prefer to be pro-Russian and whether the EU has any leverage against Belarusian authorities. Moscow Behind Us! And Before Us - political analyst Andrei Fedorov talks about the possible actions of Russia towards Belarus after the recent Russian presidential elections. Expert notes that the Belarusian government chooses economic subordination to Moscow as a lesser evil compared to the highly probable collapse of the economy. Fedorov warns that the officials in Minsk should take into account that this option certainly will lead to further significant limitations of its political power.

Viktar Lukashenka is a big enigma. The 36 year-old lieutenant-colonel and the oldest son of the current ruler is rumoured to be the next leader of Belarus. Although Lukashenka has three sons, only Viktar acts as a political figure. Since Viktar became National Security Aide to his father, many analysts have come to explain every move inside the regime in terms of Viktar's influence. On his trips to Arab countries Viktar Lukashenka meets future successors of Arab leaders as his counterparts. But his father does not intend to step down anytime soon. He is just 57 and has no evident health problems. Viktar may have to bide his time.

On 8 March, Belarusians celebrate International Women’s Day. In the tradition of the Soviet Union, there is no special day for lovers such as Valentine’s Day, but men and women have separate holidays. This is the time to look at the relations between men and women in Belarus. Although both are equal in front of the law, in reality, women are not as equal as men. 23 February is Men’s Day, the Day of the Defenders of the Motherland, as it is called. This day is celebrated in the honour of the first victory of the Soviet Army near Pskow in 1918. Nowadays, 23 February is a day when all men feel like war heroes who defend their country and their families.

The incumbent Belarusian government has a long record of deceptive behaviour in its foreign relations. Both its major trading partners – Russia and the European Union – have more than once seen official Minsk let them down on its commitments and promises. These promises included political liberalisation, introduction of single currency with Russia, recognition of Abkhasia and South Ossetia and many more.  The words of the Belarusian authorities are taken with distrust and suspicion not only in Belarus but even more so abroad.  When it comes to contractual obligations Belarus' counterparts prefer to be on the safe side of the road and double check that the Belarusian regime will not have a chance to deceive them again. The safeguards which Russia is now taking when ion its new loans to Belarus is a vivid illustration of that.

EU travel ban against 21 Belarusian officials provoked extravagant behaviour by Belarusian authorities which analysts are still struggling to explain. On 28 February Belarus asked the Polish and EU delegation ambassadors to leave the country. The EU response was strong and equally unexpected: it recalled all its ambassadors from Minsk in a sign of solidarity. This confrontation wasted another opportunity to restart the EU-Belarus engagement dialogue. It may also negatively affect the human rights situation in the country. Experts propose a variety of explanations of this conflict, from psychological reasons to the plot of Russians. But regardless of the explanation, the relations between the European Union and Belarus are now at the lowest point ever, which harms all parties involved. 

According to Tacciana Manionak, an independent energy expert, the Lukashenka regime will get $2.2bn in subsidies from Russia thanks to discounted natural gas prices in 2012 and at least $700m thanks to the refinement of Russian crude oil. Independent economic expert Leanid Zaika estimates the volume of Russian oil and gas subsidies in 2012 at about $ 4bn.  Russia was guided by political motives when it paid generously for Beltransgaz. Then more loans were received from Russia. This permitted raising of the volume of gold and foreign currencies reserves of Belarus to $ 79bn.  The level of Russian subsidies is impressive. But Lukashenka stated repeatedly that the discounted prices for gas and crude oil and all the advantages of the economic cooperation with Russia were the price Russia paid for the union and for the great service Belarus renders to Russia.