The debate launched by the Office for a Democratic Belarus regarding the fine-tuning of the criteria for applying the EU visa sanctions towards Belarusian officials was the most discussed topic for Belarusian civic activists this week. Debate Regarding the Visa Ban. The initiative voiced by the Brussels-based Office for a Democratic Belarus to fine-tune the criteria for applying the EU visa ban lists to Belarusian officials went on to create a wide discussion in Belarusian electronic media. Among the most vocal debate participants are political analyst Yury Drakhahrust, BISS academic director Alexei Pikulik, ODB Head Olga Stuzhinskaya, former presidential candidate Ales Mikhalevich, Head of the Nash Dom campaign Olga Karach, Head of Human Rights Alliance Lyudmila Gryaznova, Head of Free Theatre Nikolai Khalezin, and others.

The Belarusian government prides itself on having one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world. But the official statistics do not reflect the realities on the ground. The actual number of unemployed people is much higher than the official 0.6 per cent, and social support for the unemployed is almost nonexistent. Moreover, thousands of people have to work either in the ‘shadow sector’ or abroad. Recently, the authorities announced a new state program to foster employment. Ironically, instead of lowering unemployment its goal is to increase it from the current 0.6% to 1.5% by the end of 2012. The authorities have allocated $27m to finance the program, which is almost two times less than in the previous year. The new program has drawn public attention to the issue of unemployment in Belarus. 

In 2011, Belarus lost more than a quarter of its cows. Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich, revealed this sad fact a week ago. He was bluntly exposing his country's illusory economic successes at a meeting with his colleagues.  One of the core myths of Lukashenka's regime is its ability to maintain a viable agricultural sector. The truth is that the agricultural sector in Belarus is highly inefficient and barely survives only thanks to gigantic state subsidies.  The government has been trying to preserve the Soviet kolkhoz system of collective farming and at the same time to ensure national food security. But now, a top official in the regime has admitted that the government's Rural Revival Program implemented in recent years has been a huge failure. Despite Lukashenka's initiatives such as 'the revolution in pig farming', Belarusian agriculture currently needs not only huge subsidies but also new technologies and markets. 

Last month lawyers for Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman had to defend their client in court against graft charges. The charges included promotion of the former Israeli ambassador to Belarus who leaked privileged information about a police investigation against Lieberman dating back to the 1990s. In the meantime, the new Israeli ambassador began working in Belarus. Since March 2011, the Israeli diplomatic mission in Minsk had been working without its head. Minsk-Tel Aviv affairs are often murky and sometimes difficult to understand. This is not only because of close connections between the nations and cultures - many in the Israeli elite were born in Belarus - but also because private interests of top politicians often set trends in bilateral relations. 

Later this month Belarusian authorities plan to negotiate with the IMF a new $3.8bn loan to refinance its existing debt to the organization. With generous subsidies from Russia, the government managed to stabilize the situation in the Belarusian economy after the 2010 crisis, but this had harsh consequences for public welfare. Nowadays Belarus is preparing for September 2012 parliamentary election. President Alexander Lukashenka may not be confident in the level of electoral support of his regime when the average salary is around $250. Therefore he promises Belarusians that he will raise their salaries to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2012. The IMF loan is needed as a ‘security cushion’ to implement this task. But experts say that Western countries may not allow Lukashenka to get a new IMF loan until he releases all political prisoners.

Belarusian analysts discuss the country's drift towards Russia, recent public opinion polls and which human rights are more important - social or political. New reports were published on the state of media in Belarus and environment for NGO activities.  Who Is Losing Belarus? – Grigory Ioffe responds to Zbigniew Brzezinski's thesis that “with the decline of America’s global preeminence, weaker countries will be more susceptible to the assertive influence of major regional powers". Ioffe thinks that Russia is winning the tug of war for Belarus due to its businesslike Belarus policy. This is why, and not because of the decline in the overall America’s power, Belarus is on the “geopolitically endangered species” list. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Former National Security Adviser of the United States and the author of the concept of NATO expansion to the East, included Belarus into a list of eight geopolitically endangered countries in the event of slower foreign policy activity of the United States.

Although prices in Belarus are as high as in any European country, salaries are very low. The average monthly income is around USD 200, but people still manage to buy food, flats and smart phones. How is it possible to make ends meet with such a low income?  According to the State Statistics Committee Belstat, between January and October 2011 the average monthly salary in Belarus was roughly USD 208. After the second devaluation it even fell to USD 135 per month at some point. USD 200 is not a lot and it means that the economic situation of many families drastically deteriorated in 2011. Just before the presidential elections the average monthly salary was over USD 530, according to Belsat. But Belarusians still manage to survive. 

Each year on Holocaust memorial day, Belarus has its own tragedy to recall. In the early 20th century, Jews made up 43 per cent of the population in Minsk and equally high rates were found in provincial centers. Yiddish was one of four official languages – de facto and de jure –  between the First and the Second World Wars. The other three languages were Belarusian, Russian and Polish. Modern Belarusian literature is unimaginable without Jewish Zmitrok Biadulia, and the renowned artist Marc Chagall, who never forgot his native Vitebsk while living in France. Today's Belarusian authorities like to present the country as an Orthodox Christian and Slavic nation. But historically, Belarusians of other religions and ethnic backgrounds significantly enriched the country. Jews and Muslims, in particular, have made lasting contributions to the country's history and culture. They represent tolerance and multicultural character for which Belarus is seldom credited today.

On January 23 Lithuanian Foreign Minister Audronis Ažubalis stated that the EU should be more open towards ordinary Belarusians and increase pressure on the Belarusian regime. A year ago EU Commissioner Štefan Füle announced a “balanced approach” to overcome the harsh consequences of the 2010 post-election opposition crackdown in Belarus. However, in practice the EU imposes additional sanctions against Belarusian officials, but fails to offer new positive incentives to bring Belarusians significantly closer to the rest of Europe. Belarusian citizens have to undergo the most cumbersome and expensive procedure in Europe when they apply for EU visas. This is ironic because according to recently released data from the European Commission, in 2010 Belarus was the absolute world leader in the per capita number of Schengen visas. That would seem like a good reason to trust Belarusians in visa matters and to abolish the EU visa regime completely or at least to dramatically liberalize it. 

On 24 January the Eurasian Development Bank released an interesting report on the prospects of Eurasian economic integration. The report presented the findings of a research project conducted by a group of Russian and Ukrainian economists under the aegis of the Eurasian Development Bank, the main mission of which is to facilitate integration of post-Soviet economies. One of the report's conclusions is that Belarus will be the main beneficiary of the newly formed Single Economic Space and subsequent stages of the Eurasian integration. Even without discussing in detail the report's research methodology, there are too many ifs in it. It is very unlikely that the incumbent Belarusian leadership will be able to make full use of opportunities that the Single Economic Space can offer. The reality is that instead of working on a coherent long-term strategy and creating a business-friendly environment, Belarusian authorities usually focus on gaining short-term subsidies and other economic preferences from Russia. 

The 22-year-old Belarusian Victoria Azarenka has just defeated Maria Sharapova to win the Australian Open and take over the women's No. 1 tennis ranking.  Very few people know that Sharapova's parents are also from Belarus. They fled their home to escape the fallout from the Chernobyl explosion before she was born. Although Sharapova sometimes visits Homel, the native town of her parents, Azarenka has a much stronger connection with the country.  She regards Minsk as her most beloved city where she often travels to to have fun.   Victoria's Early Career in Belarus Victoria Azarenka was born on July 31, 1989 in the capital of Belarus, Minsk. Her parents were born in the village Seleckaye in the Mahilyou region in the east of the country. They moved to Minsk in 1986 where Victoria was born.  

In September 2012, Belarusians will be asked to elect a new parliament. The opposition is still deciding whether to take part in the elections. They are not sure for a good reason: election fraud has become common practice in the country at all levels. Although Lukashenka recently announced that he would implement political reforms, no one is taking his words seriously. The regime opponents must choose from two options: boycott or participate. To boycott would help delegitimize the elections in the eyes of the international community, while active participation could be a good opportunity to train activists and to deliver their message to the people.  

In the first month of 2012 Belarusian experts actively discuss the effectiveness of the European sanctions, the changing nature of political activities in Belarus and reflect on the most important economic events of  2011.   Foreign Policy Where do the European Sanctions Lead? Dzianis Melyantsou of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies (BISS) questions the effectiveness of EU sanctions towards Belarus. He points that over the last 15 years of sanctions the situation has not improved but continued to deteriorate. Melyantsou suggests to expand cooperation with Belarus in all areas and increase Western investments. He thinks that Europe should increase collaboration and communication on various levels of society and particularly with reform-oriented officials and young people in the framework of the Bologna process. He calls to enable Belarusians to travel without visas to the European Union to show that Europe actually cares about them and not hiding behind the wall of visas and sanctions.

As Russia is finalizing the terms of its accession to the World Trade Organization, Belarus struggles to understand what this accession will mean to it.  The question is difficult and important because Belarus closely cooperates with Russia as member of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Area. On 16 December, 2011 the WTO trade ministers accepted Russia’s bid to join the WTO. Even under the most optimistic forecast Belarus will only follow its larger neighbor in 2-3 years. The idea of accession of the Customs Union to the World Trade Organization as a single entity had been popular for a while but has now sunk into oblivion. A few things will certainly change for Belarus: customs rates will decrease and non-tariff measures will change in relation to the goods imported from the WTO members. This may benefit Belarusian consumers but hurt Belarusian producers.  Although the precise effect of Russia's accession deserves a serious study, one can also hope that approximation of the Customs Union’s non-tariff measures to those of the WTO will make regulation of Belarusian imports more liberal and transparent.