Last month Yale University Press published Andrew Wilson's book "Belarus - The Last European Dictatorship". The book covers Belarusian history from Polatsk Principality to the present day Belarus and offers particularly interesting insights into Lukashenka's rise to power and the system which managed to help him survive for such a long time. Belarus Digest interviewed the author of the book - Andrew Wilson who is an academic at the University College London. The interview first touched upon the history of Belarus and then on its current political and economic system. It also highlighted interesting parallels between the Soviet leaders of Belarus and Lukashenka who were both successful in extracting economic rents from Moscow and surpressing political freedoms and the Belarusian national movement at home.
The third meeting of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum was held in Poznan, Poland on 28-30 November 2011. The Forum gathered around 300 participants and guests from civil society sector working in EaP countries and EU, including more than 20 representatives of Belarusian NGOs. During three days with an intensive agenda, participants discussed different question on civil society engagement in eastern partnership, challenges and prospects for further development of EaP Civil Society Forum. New Coordinator of National Platform. Director Executive Bureau of the Assembly of Pro-Democratic NGOs, Siarhei Lisichonak, was elected as the new Belarusian National Coordinator of EaP CSF. Lisichenok replaced Ulad Vialichka, EuroBelarus, in his post.
Some people in Belarus still cling to Lukashenka’s regime ideology as they cannot imagine anything else. Others have a different view of the country’s future but prefer to remain silent and suffer in solitude. There are also those who have declared an outright “holy war” against the regime, no matter the cost, and who are ready to sacrifice their lives on the altar of freedom. Zmicier Dashkevich, 30, is of this latter stock, a political prisoner, a protestant and the leader of the officially banned Young Front, a Belarusian opposition youth movement. He is serving a two-year prison term, having served another prison term for his political activities not long time ago. Despite continuous pressure, he refuses to sign a pardon petition to Lukashenka and may remain in prison after all other political prisoners are released.
Last Friday, after months of uncertainty, Alyaksandr Lukashenka decisively moved to guarantee his political survival for the foreseeable future by signing a series of agreements with Russia. This was the sequel to Belarus's earlier entry into the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. The agreements came as a disappointment to Western politicians who had speculated that the isolation of Belarus, coupled with the economic crisis, would eventually bring down or at least affect the regime. Speaking on Wednesday, Russian ambassador to Belarus declared that Russian support to the Belarusian regime in 2011-2012 would exceed $7 bn, and assumed that in two to three years living standards in the country would return to the level of early 2011.
As 2011 draws to a close, the Lukashenka regime has averted economic and political collapse. To be sure, the economy is still in a fragile state: the ruble has suffered three major devaluations since May; inflation has soared to 90 percent; external debt is at over half of GDP; and growth continues to slow. But all this may not matter much because Belarus now has two “lenders of last resort” – Russia and China. The agreements that Belarus signed with Russia last week resemble those signed with China in late September. Moscow and Beijing have carved out prized assets for their state champions in return for bailouts and cheap credit. Both involve top-down agreements worth billions of dollars and lack Western-style conditionality. While the recent deals have salvaged Belarus’s economy, they could pit Chinese against Russian interests. Could Belarus become an object of Sino-Russian rivalry? The evidence so far cuts both ways.
Belarus has managed to secure significant monetary benefits in exchange for its active support of the new wave of Russian integration initiatives. Generous Russian subsidies followed almost immediately after the solemn signing of the Declaration on Eurasian Economic Integration on 18 November 2011. On that same day Belaruskali (read Belarus government) got USD 1 billion as a result of a syndicated loan agreement with Sberbank and Eurasian Development Bank. And last week more economic carrots followed. They included subsidized natural gas prices, new loans and hard cash for the sale of Beltransgaz. Although the Belarusian authorities once again managed to secure significant aid from Russia, in the long-run the return of Russian subsidies is likely to do more harm than good for the unreformed Belarus economy.
Lukashenka invites the West to participate in a "tug of war" with Russia. He wants to persuade the West that Belarus is significantly strengthening cooperation with Russia, and thus push the West towards cooperating on his terms: extension of loans, development of trade and economic cooperation without significant steps towards political liberalization. Russia's generous loans, heavily discounted gas prices and imprisonment of Bialiatski are two recent steps in this game. Despite some emotional reactions in Belarus, the new Eurasian economic integration does not mean significant changes in relations between Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka expects increased subsidies from Russia, including lower energy prices, and also improved conditions for Belarusian exports.
For the Belarusian authorities, human rights activist Ales Bialiatski, who was sentenced to 4 and a half years in prison yesterday, is a criminal. For a significant part of Belarusian society, he is a hero. Twenty years after the declaration of independence from the Soviet Union, Belarus still has two opposite pantheons of national heroes: the official and the democratic one, and many people believe they do not need any national heroes at all. Every year on 27 November, the Belarusian diaspora celebrates the first day of the Slutsk uprising on what is known as Heroes Day. On 27 November 1920, a month after Soviet Russia and Poland split the territory of what was at the time Belarus in accordance with the Peace of Riga treaty, supporters of the Belarusian People's Republic, which was declared in 1918, raised an anti-Soviet uprising in the town of Slutsk. Several thousand armed Belarusian peasants fought for the independence of Belarus against a massive Bolshevik army for more than a month. Eventually, they had to capitulate.
Today a Belarusian court sentenced human rights activist Ales Byalyatski to 4 and a half years in jail for tax evasion. The Belarusian authorities ignored yesterday's joint statement by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and Commissioner Štefan Füle calling for his release. This verdict is widely believed to be politically motivated. Over the last two weeks Belarusian analysts have been discussing other new legal developments: the recently established Investigations Committee, the "presumption of guilt" in Belarusian courts and increased legal pressure against NGOs.
On 18 November presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia met in Moscow and launched the Single Economic Space. They also signed the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Commission. If three countries ratify these acts in the near future, on 1 July 2012 the Customs Union’s Commission will be abolished and all its powers will be transferred to the Eurasian Economic Commission. The Eurasian Union founders use the European integration experience as a model. However, it is hardly possible that they will form a harmonious union because of a number of political, economic and intercultural problems.
On November 30, a Belarusian court is likely to issue the death sentence to the alleged perpetrators of the April terrorist act in the Minsk metro. Many in Belarus remain unconvinced that the suspects, two young men from the northern province of Vitebsk, are guilty of such serious crimes. The premature verdict could have major repercussions for the legitimacy of the Lukashenka regime. Contrary to official claims, there remains considerable uncertainty about the identity and the aims of the masterminds of the multiple bombings in Vitebsk and Minsk in 2005-2011. Admitting this uncertainty would undermine the official narrative of national security and stability that underpins the 'social contract' between the authoritarian government and the people.
Last summer over half of Belarusians polled by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies said that Alyaksandr Lukashenka based his authority primarily on the police, the military and the KGB. A closer look at who actually runs the security services and other governmental agencies in Belarus reveals interesting facts and trends. It appears that those who were born outside of Belarus and educated in Russia heavily dominate the leadership of the police, the military and the KGB, while most 'technocrats' were born and educated within Belarus. Another notable fact is that most Belarusian officials are old and age is an important indicator in predicting their views. Younger ministers tend to be more liberal and less hawkish than their older colleagues.
Auctioning of government property, a familiar debate about the extent of Lukashenka’s domestic legitimacy, and a few sensationalist words about life inside a police state: a round-up of Western coverage of Belarus over the last month. Selling off the state. The Belarusian Central Bank’s auctioning of office supplies and furniture has drawn the most interest this month. The Guardian, The Independent and Business Insider Europe reported on the auction of more than 500 office items at the end of October. The Guardian drew a clear link between the sale of safes, suitcases, and even a cardboard box, and Belarus’ crippled economy, but reported that a Central Bank spokesman denied that the auction had anything to do with the crisis.
This week could definitely be named "Belarus week" in Washington, DC. The North American Association for Belarusian Studies is holding a business meeting on 18 November. Another more political than academic event took place on the 15 November. The Cannon House Office Building of the US Congress hosted an audience that gathered to listen to the hearing on Belarus held by the U.S. Helsinki Commission under the title "Belarus: The Ongoing Crackdown and Forces for Change". The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is an independent agency of the Federal Government in charge of advancing comprehensive security through promotion of human rights, democracy, and economic, environmental and military cooperation in 56 countries, including Belarus. The Commission consists of nine members from the U.S. Senate, nine from the House of Representatives, and one member each from the Departments of State, Defense, and Commerce.