This November Belarusians observed highly unusual political developments. On 8 November Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich denounced the Presidential Administration and the President’s aide on economic affairs Siarhey Tkachou personally for systemic mistakes in economic policy. Myasnikovich argued that the Presidential Administration and Tkachou had personally been the key contributors to all the previous programs of socio-economic development. He also clearly hinted that those programs had paved the way for the present-day economic turmoil. On 10 November a reaction to those accusations came from Aliaksandr Lukashenka. He publicly reprimanded Myasnikovich and blamed the Government for the plummeting living standards in the country.  'If the government wants to introduce the market everywhere and give everything away to private hands, then we don’t need such a policy’, emphasized  Lukashenka. For the first time in many years it has become obvious even for ordinary citizens that there are cracks inside the governing elites.

Last Thursday, director of the Nuclear Energy Department Mikalaj Hrusha unexpectedly began to talk about the need to enlarge Belarus' atomic energy program. According to the Belarusian authorities, the first Belarusian nuclear power plant may have four rather than two reactors. Until recently, the government was planning to install two Russian-designed and built reactors with a capacity of 1,200 megawatt each. The current plan is to increase the entire Belarusian energy system capacity to 8,000 megawatt.  However, it appears that the authorities will fail to achieve one of the main objectives of the project: energy independence. On the contrary, the nuclear plant may make Belarus even more dependent upon Russia. 

Last week Belarusian civil society and security services were preoccupied with the People’s Assemblies, the progress of the Ales Bialiatski trial and a discussion about proposed legislative amendments and restricting the freedom of assembly. Public debate on the future of National Civil Society Platform and economic reforms also appeared to be gaining momentum. None of the 19 December political prisoners were released last week.   POLITICS Participants in the 7 November anti-Communist action near Lenin monument sentenced to arrest. On 8 November “Young Front” activists Mikhail Muski, Siarhei Paval and Raman Vasiliieu, who had thrown eggs at the Lenin monument on Nezalezhnast Square in Minsk during the Bolshevik Revolution celebration, were found guilty of “disorderly conduct”. Muski and Paval were sentenced to 7 days and Vasillieu to 10 days arrest.

On 4 November Alyaksandr Lukashenka declared that Belarus and Russia were close to reaching a new agreement on natural gas supplies for 2012. He also expressed confidence about the probability of coming to an agreement with Russia on equal prices for oil and gas within the Customs Union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. However, Lukashenka also made it clear that if the suitable price agreements were not reached by the end of November Belarus may not to participate in the Single Economic Space which the Russian leadership is keen to launch in January 2012. In the past the Belarusian ruler made significant political concessions to Russia. He led Belarus into Russia's projects on the creation of the Customs Union, the Single Economic Space and the Eurasian Union. Did these projects actually benefit Belarus economically?

On 8 November Minsk signed a deal with Dagong Credit Rating Co Ltd, China’s largest credit ratings agency, to assess its sovereign credit rating. State-owned Dagong may issue a more favorable rating than the US agency Standard & Poor’s, which downgraded Belarus from B to B- in late September. The deal is part and parcel of Beijing’s bailout for Belarus – in September, China inked a deal to provide a $1 bn bailout loan by end of 2011, on more favorable terms than the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Community and the IMF. Beijing is willing to help a fellow autocracy off its knees, but the support comes with a price: stakes in Belarus’s strategic state-owned companies.  At face value, Beijing seems to be exploiting a downturn in the Belarusian economy. One could argue that China pursued similar acquisition strategies in Western Europe in the aftermath of the 2009 crisis, although China’s impact in Belarus is greater and the political implications are more significant. This version of events jives well with the view that Chinese investors are “neo-mercantilists”. But this picture is too facile. 

If Russia does not increase the amount of subsidies to Belarus, Lukashenka will have to accept the proposals of the Ministry of Economy and the National Bank: to privatize (or rather, to carry out the nomenklatura privatization of) one third of the state-owned enterprises and to cut government expenditure significantly. This would mean a reduction in the scope of state regulation of the economy. If the official information about the significant increases in Belarusian exports in EU countries turns out to be true, the IMF loan is not a must-have for Lukashenka's regime. The economic changes (if they occur) on their own will not change the vital characteristics of the political regime in Belarus in the long-term. Lukashenka has no intention of releasing political prisoners. The authorities intend to hold the parliamentary elections no later than September 2012 in accordance with the existing scenario of total falsification: none of the opposition activists will get elected to the parliament.

Conference of the Belarusian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society, unsuccessful legal challenge of new laws restricting civil society activities were among the main developments last week.  Conference of the Belarusian National Platform. On October 29, Conference of the Belarusian National Platform of the EaP CSF "Civil society of Belarus: on the eve of the third annual meeting of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum" was held in Minsk. According to the adopted Memorandum, the purpose of National Platform is to strengthen the institutional capacity of civil society organizations to influence the processes of democratization of the country, the Belarusian-European cooperation, agenda for reforms in Belarus towards European standards in all spheres of society. The National Platform elected an interim Steering Committee, headed by Vladimir Mackievich. Ales Byalyatsky was elected Honorary member of the Committee.

Following military manoeuvres in the south of Belarus last Friday, the Belarusian ruler put forth a completely new idea for developing public administration. He ordered the formation of a new army called the territorial defence troops. The idea is reminiscient of what Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein once tried to do in their countries: effectively undermining national armies through the creation of parallel paramilitary and military units. Sounding oddly similar to the deceased Libyan colonel, Lukashenka said, “Territorial defence shall encompass the entire state and people. If necessary, we are going to spend huge sums on it.” At the same time the Belarusian leader gave generals' insignia to previously civilian governors of all six Belarusian regions. 

Last month was rich in international events and analytical materials discussing the situation in Belarus. On 25-26 October Belarus was discussed on both sides of the Atlantic - at the US-Central Europe Forum in Prague and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. In addition, David Kramer and Hans-Georg Wieck unveiled their visions of how to deal with Belarus.  20 Years of Belarusian Independence: Current Challenges and Future Development - Balázs Jarábik, Matthew Rojansky and a number of other experts discussed popular attitudes towards the Lukashenka regime, Belarus’s economy, and Belarus’s relations with the United States, European Union, and Russia at a two-panel discussion in Washington D.C. hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

Belarus Digest interviewed Eduard Melnikau, founder of the first independent Belarusian-language TV channel Belsat. Currently he is a Member of Board of the Belarusian Association of Journalists and one of the Belsat program producers. His TV-studio VISATA, based in Lithuania, produces TV programs such as "I Have the Right", Talk Show “Forum" (a co-production with Inforum), "Unknown Belarus” documentaries, and others.   We talked about the effectiveness of Belarusian exile media, ways to increase access of Belarusians to independent information, and how to make video products more attractive and Belarusian journalists more prepared. 

Last Sunday, a thousand Belarusians carrying national flags and wooden crosses marched from central Minsk to the Kurapaty forest. Nearly 100,000 people were shot dead during the Stalin era in Kurapaty. On just one day 74 years ago, more than a hundred representatives of the intellectual elite of Soviet Belarus were also shot dead in the cellars of the Minsk KGB (then known as NKVD) internal prison "Amerikanka”. The archive of the President of the Russian Federation still keeps the list with the names of the 103 residents of Soviet Belarus who were sentenced to death by Joseph Stalin on 15 September 1937 and shot on the night of 29 October 1937. According to some historians, this was the way Stalin's assassins celebrated the day of Lenin's Komsomol - The Communist Union of Youth's anniversary. The victims were Belarusian writers (as many as 22 people), government officials, labor leaders, prominent doctors, teachers, priests, military officers, students and others. 

Last week Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka visited Tajikistan where he claimed that Belarus should not be blamed for the current difficulties in Belarus-EU and Belarus-USA relations and that his country 'sincerely tries to establish a constructive interaction'. This is yet another statement which demonstrates that Alexander Lukashenka is interested in Belarus-EU dialogue and hopes to restore the status quo of 18 December 2010.  But he is not ready to make political concessions. This time the European Union is showing remarkable determination to improve bilateral relations only after Belarus releases and rehabilitates all political prisoners. However, does this firm determination help the European Union to achieve its aims in Belarus? So far the EU policy of isolation towards Belarus has failed to achieve its goals. It should be replaced by a new engagement policy based on mutual interests, development of social ties and the creation of lobby groups within the Belarusian regime. 

Recently, Belarus was frequented by Chinese matchmakers. To have a look at the bride with his own eyes, last month the president of Belarus went on a date with his new beloved in her own territory. In the middle of October, Alyaksandr Lukashenka paid a visit to the People's Republic of China. Behaving as proper fiancé, Belarus' leader announced that he has observed China for a long time and admired the scale and the uniqueness of its projects which demonstrate Chinese dynamism to the rest of the world. Belarusians, according to Lukashenka, rejoice in Chinese successes and celebrate them as their own. If Belarusian leader really has been observing China for years, why has the need for China in Belarus appeared just now? Was it the Belarusian leader who suddently realized the he needed China or was it China that realized it missed Belarus a lot?

Belarusian authorities intensified their efforts to please their Russian counterparts by publicly praising the idea of the Russia-dominated Eurasian Union. They also continued repression of political opponents. Several opposition activists involved in actions of solidarity with political prisoners were arrested last week. Two journalists working for popular Poland- and Russia-based media were also targeted. Lukashenka: Belarus Stability Depends on the "Russian Bear". President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenka believes that the stability of Belarus is largely dependent on stability in Russia. He said on October 26 "If the Russian bear is doing well, we'll be fine, too. But if Russia is shaking and unstable, as it did at the end of the last century, hard times will come for us".