Last week, a delegation led by Sinomach, the largest state-run machinery manufacturer in China, met with Economy Minister Nikolai Snopkov. This follows a visit by Wu Bangguo, head of China's National People’s Congress, to Minsk last month. Beijing will issue a $1 bn soft loan to help Belarus out of its current account crisis. Minsk will reciprocate by granting China equity stakes and joint ventures in strategic sectors, such as machinery and power generation. This follows $15 bn in loans issued by Chinese banks to Belarus over the past two years. These developments are emblematic of China’s global expansion. With foreign exchange reserves at half of GDP, China is looking to reinvest surplus capital overseas. Since 2009, it has poured more money into developing economies than the World Bank. In the process, Beijing is expanding diplomatic influence, securing resources and markets, and promoting the globalization of state-owned firms. Like other low-income countries, Belarus is eager to obtain Chinese capital and technology on preferential terms. But Belarus is unique in several respects.
In an effort to avoid persecution for political activism, opponents of the Belarusian regime continue to look for new forms of protest. Sometimes such forms do not prove to be effective or even reasonable. On Tuesday, the online community “Revolution Through Social Networks” proposed to turn “Silent Actions” into “photograph actions'”. The aim is for people in cities across the country to take photographs with a message to President Lukashenka. Organizers of another protest action, “Peoples’ Rally”, propose to hold meetings in the courtyards of residential buildings in order to elect representatives for a national rally in Minsk scheduled for November 12. This is effectively a second attempt at mobilization - the People’s Rally failed to generate sufficient turnout to stage large-scale rallies in early October.
Today Belarusian courts sentenced two people to 5 and 7 days of arrest for taking part in an unauthorized protest on 21 October. More people were detained on the 21st but only two were prosecuted. A few hours ago another action of solidarity with political prisoners was held in Minsk. So far no detentions were reported. Both on the 21st and today Belarusian security services blocked several opposition web sites. Other notable events included a swift approval of the new set of amendments aimed at restricting political ad civil society activities in Belarus. It took the upper chamber of the Belarusian parliament just 30 minutes to discuss and adopt the controversial amendments.
On Thursday Nadzeya Yermakova, chair of the Belarusian National Bank, unexpectedly admitted that the government has almost no gold or foreign currency reserves. The National Bank only has USD 1.2 billion. The rest – 3/4 of the reserves - was borrowed from Belarusian commercial banks. Official media are silent about this news, although the statement was made publicly at a press briefing of the National Bank on 20 October. This information shocked even the non-state media. Officially Belarus' gold and foreign currency reserves on 1 October amounted to USD 4.7 billion. The National Bank will also have to return the USD 3.5 billion borrowed from commercial banks in the so badly needed foreign currency.
Belarusian analysts discuss new integration initiatives in the post-Soviet Space and the promise of Europe's Eastern Partnership. Other topics include Mink Gay Pride 2011, the profile of an average internet user in Belarus and the effect of proposed legislation amendments targeting NGOs and foreign aid. The paper-based Eurasian Union. Andrei Fyodarau analyzes Vladimir Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka's recent articles on the creation of the Eurasian Union. Fyodarau thinks that at the basis of the Eurasian Union initative is the Russian imperial idea of "collecting the lands." Alexander Lukashenka also understands it. In his publication Lukashenka keeps returning to the idea that "only equality of partners, including the equality of economic conditions with equal access to a common energy and transport system, will create a solid foundation for our union". Fyodarau questions the economic viability of the Eurasian Union idea.
Last week the Belarusian authorities initiated a criminal case against a prominent Belarusian musician for insulting Lukashenka. They also imposed fines on organizers of the People's Assembly and introduced controversial amendments to strengthen security services. The main civil society developments included appeals against a Russian-built nuclear station in Belarus and Minsk Gay Pride-2011. POLITICS Criminal case initiated against Mikhalok. According to Belaruski Partyzan, a criminal case was opened against Syarhei Mikhalok, the leader of the iconic Belarusian music band Lyapis Trubetskoy. He is charged with insulting Lukashenka. The musician is famous for his audacious remarks criticizing the authorities. In one video interview he said that Lukashenka organized a cultural genocide against Belarusians and the best thing he deserved was a fair trial.
Minsk is not taking chances in times of crisis. Only instead of heeding the advice of international economic experts, the Belarusian government is tightening the screws on civil society. In this year of 80% inflation, the new laws in Belarus are penned almost as fast as the new rubles are printed. The latest three draft laws were (prudently) passed in a closed session of the parliament and appeared on the government website yesterday. The draft laws strengthen the KGB, outlaw protests, and prohibit foreign funding of civil society and political organizations.
Unable to deal with the economic crisis by economic means and fearing a revolution, Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka strengthens the KGB. Last Thursday the Belarusian rouble fell sharply against the US dollar. Now the rate is 9,000 Belarusian rubles for one dollar. In September, the rate was less than 8,000 rubles. The new fall clearly breached Lukashenka's promise that the Belarusian national currency would be strengthened. Because of high inflation, wages and salaries are stagnating. Most Belarusians today earn two or three times less than they did a year ago. The situation with pensions is even worse as many retired people have to survive on less than 100 dollars per month.
The results of the second summit of the Eastern Partnership say nothing new about the EU policy in Belarus and in Eastern Europe. As always, the EU leadership is busy with internal problems. In light of the financial collapse in Greece and the major financial problems in Eurozone countries, one should have not expected allocation of additional large sums on Belarusian issues for Eastern Partnership projects. Rather, the summit confirmed that the development of cooperation in the framework of the Eastern Partnership will move very slowly. Fundamentally, the Eastern Partnership is still a deferred project for the EU.
At 10 am last Saturday an official "subbotnik" began for millions of Belarusians. The word "subbotnik" comes from the Russian "subbota" and means a Saturday of unpaid work for community needs. Subbotniks trace their history back to 1919 when Russian Bolsheviks needed to mobilise workers to rebuild the country after the Civil War but were unable to pay them. Today Belarus has no civil war but the authorities use unpaid labour on a regular basis. The official Belarusian propaganda is loud and proud that people contribute to public projects without being paid. But legal experts and human rights activists are unimpressed. They call subbotniks forced labour which is prohibited by Belarusian and international law.
Last Saturday's Narodny Skhod (the People's Assembly) had been long planned as a major protest event in Belarus. Authorities warned and intimidated its organizers and prospective participants in all regions of the country well in advance. As a result of this pressure and adverse weather conditions, only around one thousand people appeared in Minsk and several hundred in other regions of Belarus. Other instances of pressure against opposition included attacks and in one instance a robbery of activists by plain clothed individuals. Masked men attack opposition politician Ukhnaleu on his way to Minsk from Lithuania. On 1 October, masked men attacked Valery Ukhnalyow on a road shortly after midnight as the deputy chair of the “Spravedlivy Mir” (Just World) Belarusian Party of the Left was returning to Minsk from Lithuania by car with his daughter and associate Vatslaw Areshka. Masked men stole $12,000, bags, mobile phones, two laptop computers and the keys to Ukhnalyow’s home and car. Police appeared to be committed to undertake a thorough investigation.
Yesterday the Belarusian government concluded an investment agreement with the British company GMC Global Energy plc owned by Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriev. Gutseriev, who fled Russia in 2007 and currently lives in the United Kingdom, has undertaken to build a major potash-extraction enterprise in Belarus. The new enterprise will inevitably compete with Belaruskali, the most profitable state company in Belarus. It will extract the same potassium and undermines all its further prospects. This desperate move by the Belarusian authorities is like shooting themselves in the foot. It shows that their options are really exhausted. Earlier this month, Lukashenka issued a presidential order on concessions for natural resources. Belarusian potassium chloride has been the single major mineral exported of Belarus since Soviet times. Mikhail Gutseriev promises to invest USD 1.5 billion in three major sites to the south of the Belarusian capital. The new enterprise will reach its full capacity in ten years.
On Sunday Belarusian authorities released yet another presidential candidate - Dzmitry Us. At least seven political prisoners remain in Belarusian prisons. This number includes the two ex-presidential candidates Andrei Sannikov and Mikalai Statkevich, leader of the campaign “European Belarus” Dzmitry Bandarenka, Head of the Human Rights Centre “Viasna” Ales Byalyatsky, youth leaders Zmitser Dashkevich and Eduard Lobov and entrepreneur Mikalay Autukhovich. In addition, human rights defenders consider the case of five anarchists to be politically motivated; three of them are also in prison.
Belarusian analysts discuss the implications of the economic crises in Belarus which shakes the foundations of the Belarusian regime. Other topics include the trial of April 11 terrorist suspects and the need for dialogue between the West and Belarusian authorities. The Konovalov-Kovalev trial will change public opinion on the death penalty - Publicist Siarhei Dubavets believes that the trial on the blast in the Minsk metro makes Belarusian society focus on the topic of death as something specific and personal. In circumstances when trust of governmental institutions, including courts, has been steadily decreasing, public opinion can change, and Belarusians will no longer support the death penalty.