This week the Belarusian leader vowed to release all political prisoners by the beginning of October. The situation in the country is unlikely to change this time around. However, one day Alyaksandr Lukashenka may realize that by putting people in jail he is strengthening the country’s democratic potential and educating his potential successors.  Even if they fail to repeat Nelson Mandela’s epic transition “from prisoner to President”, Belarus’ political prisoners are gaining useful political skills behind bars. Lukashenka has made similar promises on political prisoners before. In fact, Minsk’s behavior toward its political prisoners and its experiments with releasing them serve as a barometer of changes within the authoritarian regime.

As the economic crisis deepens prices on nearly all products rise sharply in Belarus with one remarkable exception - alcohol.  These days a bottle of vodka in Belarusian restaurants often costs less than a packet of orange juice - US$3. In a supermarket half a liter of a cheap alcoholic drink with around 30% alcohol content costs around US$0.65. Yesterday the government increased taxes on alcohol and tobacco, but the state policy of providing affordable alcohol and tobacco remains unchanged. This policy arises from Alyaksandr Lukashenka's own understanding of what Belarusians need.  At a June press conference he explained: "People would not survive without vodka, bread and cigarettes and we help them".  The Belarusian Ministry of Economics ensures that alcohol and cigarettes remain cheap by imposing price caps, which sellers cannot exceed. This policy sharply contrasts with that of other northern European countries, which have the world's highest alcohol taxes. The affordable alcohol policy comes at a very dear price to Belarus.

Belarus has returned to the spotlight of Western press coverage after brief periods of interest which followed the December 19th crackdown, subsequent international sanctions, and April metro bombing. The new reports focus on the IMF loan request and business relations between the West and Lukashenka’s government. An occasional mention of rights abuses appear in a few concerned publications, with the Belarus Free Theatre leading the way in raising awareness amongst the Western public. Western banks with dirty hands? The big Belarus story to the make UK headlines has been the decision by a group of European banks to finally cease raising Belarusian government bonds.  More than $800m in government bonds were issued by UK bank The Royal Bank of Scotland only a month after the December election crackdown. The Independent continues to devote more attention than any other major Western paper to Belarus. They led with this story early this week and were highly critical of such prolonged unethical investment by a state-owned bank. They argue that the decision to stop selling the bonds was only taken following considerable pressure from the campaign groups Index on Censorship and Free Belarus Now.  

Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced on Monday his willingness to begin talks with the opposition on the future of Belarus. Yesterday Belarusian opposition leaders dismissed any talks until all political prisoners are released. As this digest demonstrates, despite their rhetoric, the authorities show few signs that they are ready to release political prisoners or reduce their repressions.  POLITICS  Criminal cases against Natalia Radzina, Aleh Korban and Anatol Liabedzka terminated. On 23 August 2011 criminal proceedings against Natalia Radzina, Oleg Korban and Anatoly Lebedko in a criminal case on mass riots in Minsk on December 19 were terminated due to a lack of evidence. In total, 43 people were convicted under articles of the Criminal Code for organization or participating in post-election protests on December 19th. Most of those convicted are serving prison terms of various lengths; they include three ex-presidential candidates: Andrei Sannikov (5 years), Mikola Statkevich (6 years), Dzmitry Us (5.5 years).

  This month Belarusian analysts focused on geopolitical games involving Belarus, the deep roots of the economic crisis and the inability of the officials in Minsk to deal with it. Another topic which began to receive more attention is the Belarusian parliamentary elections in 2012.  Geopolitical Mill. Political scholar Andrey Suzdaltsev attributes Lukashenka's regime longevity to sitting in the "grey" zone of the struggle between the EU and Russia for political and economic influence in the post-Soviet space. The analyst is sure that, until recently, the West objectively appreciated Lukashenka because he acted against Russian policy in the post-Soviet space, and even on the world arena. Suzdaltsev regards Poland and Lithuania's leaks of information about opposition activists'  bank accounts as a planned action rather than an unfortunate incident.

This month an advertising campaign that may puzzle foreign observers was launched in Minsk.  Advertising company “Belzneshreklama” began to advertise the Belarusian language. Their posters show various berries and Belarusian names for them. And what is more unusual - they also decided to display the Russian translation. The title of the campaign is: “The taste of the Belarusian language”. One would think that Belarusians would know how their language tastes and need no reminders about it. However, a population census in 2009 showed that only 30% of Belarusians speak Belarusian every day.  Understanding the language situation in Belarus is difficult for foreigners.

If you are in Belarus and only have Belarusian roubles to pay for your ticket – be prepared to stay in the country a bit longer.  AirBaltic and some other companies  operating in Belarus no longer accept Belarusian roubles. Instead they insist on payments in Euros - a currency which is nearly impossible to buy legally in Belarus. Today it became even more difficult as the National Bank of Belarus recommended commercial banks only to buy, but not to sell, foreign currency.  This is because local banks have to follow the official exchange rate established by the National Bank. Over the last months this rate has been nearly 40% lower than the market rate. No wonder that very few want to exchange money in banks and most people prefer the black market. "Don't exchange money in Belarusian banks" is the first tip given to those who visit Belarus these days. 

Last week Belarusian authorities continued the criminal prosecution of Ales Byalyatsky. The authorities also continued to put pressure on lawyers who represent opposition activists. There were no massive protests last week but Belaruian courts fined two people who were involved in organizing silent protests this summer.  Formal charges against Ales Byalyatsky. On 12 August, Ales Byalyatsky was formally charged under Article 243-2 of the Criminal Code (concealment of income on an especially large scale). On 15th of August his detention was extended for two months. Earlier this month Belarusian authorities detained Ales Byalyatsky, chairperson of the Human Rights Center Viasna and vice-President of the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH). Belarusian authorities allege that Ales Byalyatsky failed to pay taxes of Br 143.7 million (approx. $28 700). This offense envisages up to seven years of imprisonment with confiscation of property.

This week Belarus fulfilled its promise to retaliate to the US sanctions. Minsk suspended an agreement with the United States to give up its 220-kilogram stockpile of enriched uranium. What are the implications of this decision? Under the December 2010 agreement, Belarus committed to send its enriched uranium to Russia by 2012, which would return a less purified grade product. To date, only 10% of the stockpile has left Belarus. The U.S. State Department said it regretted Minsk’s decision and hoped the country would destroy its stockpile as planned. However, official Minsk may come to regret more.

Belarusian State Oil Company “Belarusnafta” can no longer extract oil in Iran. According to official statements released this week the Iranian side decided that the Belarusian company had not fulfilled the contract's conditions and revoked its extraction permit. This case illustrates the nature of Belarus-Iranian relations - they are deprived of any real meaning despite all efforts by political leadership to fill them with content. Could it be a kind of 'quid pro quo', after Belarus declared its intent to shut down the Iranian Samand cars assembly line in the country? The plant existed since 2008, but failed to organize a sustainable production of cars. Nevertheless, the project was important for the image of the Iranian company which tries to go beyond national borders and become a global player.

Last week Russia's President Vladimir Putin reiterated that privatisation of state enterprises is a necessary precondition for further financial support. The International Monetary Fund also insists on privatization in its recommendations. But many in Belarus - both in the government and in the opposition camps - bitterly oppose privatization.  Belarusian authorities still control the largest and most profitable enterprises in the country. Nearly full ownership over the economy allows them to maintain tight control over politics as well. For instance, they can put pressure on any state enterprise to dismiss unwanted individuals who then will struggle to find another job. The workers dislike the idea of privatization too. They know that nearly all state-owned enterprises need to cut their personnel to become more efficient. Keeping them employed is important for the state, but not for future private owners. Directors of state-owned companies also resist privatization because the new owners will inevitably replace them. 

Belarus authorities send a mixed message about their willingness to soften repressions against their opponents. On the one hand, nine participants of December 2011 protests against falsification of elections were pardoned last week. On the other hand, criminal investigation proceedings are now under way against two other participants of the December protests, including a prominent opposition figure. Instead of closing two leading opposition newspapers, Nasha Niva and Narodnaya Volya, Belarusian courts imposed fines against them. POLITICS Lukashenka grants pardon to nine Ploscha protesters. On August 11 Alexander Lukashenka signed a decree to pardon nine people convicted on the mass riot case of the Ploscha events on December 19.

Belarusian analysts began discussing the reasons why Lukashenka pardoned nine participants of protests against falsification of elections in December 2010. Others analyze why those protests have not materialized in political changes and what comes next as the economic crises deepens. Official Minsk starts bargaining for political prisoners? Alexander Zaitsev, a columnist of naviny.by, examines the possible reasons for Lukashenka’s pardon of nine participants of Ploscha events on December 19, 2010. The journalist believes that the first batch of the amnesty "is likely to be a trial balloon, an attempt to assess the reaction of the West, to throw the hook for a possible dialogue". Over thirty people, including several presidential candidates, remain in Belarusian prisons.

Six out of seven member states attended an unofficial summit meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Astana, Kazakhstan, on August 12-13.
 Isolated from the West and in the midst of an economic crisis, Belarus was one of the most enthusiastic summit participants. CSTO chair this year, Belarusian president used the floor as to draw attention to his immediate concerns: social unrest and the power of internet.    While other CSTO members were also concerned about violence in Afghanistan and US troop withdrawal plans, Alyaksandr Lukashenka brought the situation in North Africa and the Middle East into focus. Even though Tunis, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Egypt and Yemen are far from Belarus and far beyond the CSTO immediate sphere of interests, the protests in those countries hit close to home, and he stressed that an adequate CSTO response to anti-government protests is necessary.