Many are wondering these days – why demonstrations in Belarus two months ago were not as massive in Egypt and have not led to political changes. Belarus is not Egypt in many important respects, but this does not necessarily mean that changes are impossible in Belarus.
The last week’s decision to go on with the Eastern Partnership’s EURONEST parliamentary assembly without Belarus again highlighted disagreements in the EU about how to deal with the deviant Eastern neighbour. The Euronest Parliamentary Assembly is the parliamentary component of the Eastern Partnership to which Belarus is still a member. After more than two years of ‘muddling through’ towards beneficial neighbourly cooperation the rigged election and the barbarian-style wave of political repressions have unexpectedly brought the EU-Belarus rapprochement to a halt.
As the Belarus civil society receives pledges of financial support from international community, the issue of how to make this aid effective is moving up on the agenda list.
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has an uncanny sense of balance. Elections and gas disputes occasionally threaten his equilibrium with a push to the West or East. But like the best Tai Chi practitioners, Lukashenka has learned that pressure to one side or the other already contains the forces needed to upright himself.
Following the recent presidential elections, many people in Belarus lost their jobs or were expelled from universities. It is important to take measures which would help those people stay in Belarus and remain politically active rather than seek political asylum abroad.
Almost a month after the brutal voting day crackdown in Minsk, repressions against the regime's opponents are not diminishing. Most leaders of the 19 December protests are still in custody without any reasonable interaction with their families or access to lawyers. Police and state security agents are raiding the houses of opposition activists and arresting many of them. Such a long campaign of repressions is unprecedented for Belarus. Of course, Lukashenka needs some time to recover his iron grip over the country that he slightly loosened before the elections. But it is quite clear that such steps accompanied by hostile actions towards the West – such as closure of the OSCE office in Minsk or accusations against Germany and Poland – will unavoidably mean a tilt toward Moscow. Why did the regime leader changed his mind? Just before the elections he made the impression of a man interested in reducing Russian influence over his nation and befriending the West. The situation may have a simple explanation. In the system without public critics and without parliamentary and other public control over state and security services, it was easy for security services to convince Lukashenka that it was absolutely necessary to launch a repression campaign. After many years of wiping out anything alive on the Belarusian political stage, now there is effectively a political ground zero in Belarus. There is only president in public politics. What happens behind closed doors of Belarusian state institutions and organizations is a mistery. The soil for any visible civil society has been burned and no longer fertile. That applies to media, opposition and civil society in general. There are no voices or serious analysis and research done within the regime which goes beyond their need to preserve the political status quo.
Appeal by representatives of the Belarusian civil society, prepared for the recent session of the European Parliament. APPEAL to the Members of the European Parliament on the Situation in Belarus
It is encouraging to see a consensus in recent statements by observers and policymakers on Belarus. Nearly all independent commentators agree that sanctions need to be imposed against the regime of Lukashenka. Yesterday’s editorial of FT about Belarus adds to the choir:
the Association of Belarusians in Great Britain adopted a memorandum in the aftermath of the 2010 presidential elections in Belarus MEMORANDUM by the Association of Belarusians in Great Britain
