Belarusian analysts discuss recent foreign policy developments, the failure of the government to attract investors and two realities created by the state and independent media in Belarus among other issues. In Belarus neither women nor men want feminism. A sociological survey of people’s attitudes towards feminism, undertaken in early August, shows that Belarus has the lowest level of tolerance towards this movement among the CIS countries. Head of the international Association on Gender Perspectives Alyona Alkhovka says that such attitudes of Belarusians towards feminism are caused by the distorted understanding of its core idea, which is differentiation between the biological and the social roles of genders. Psychologist Vladlen Pisarev, on the other hand, explains the lack of sympathy towards feminists by their apparent harshness and aggression, as well as by the fact that a strong tie between the woman’s biological and social role is the natural order of things.
It may sound surprising but the Iranian political system is more democratic and pluralistic than its Belarusian counterpart. To build a democratic state Belarus needs a complete overhaul, while Iran needs just light repairs. Anti-Western rhetoric united these regimes but when it comes to political systems there are more differences than similarities. Belarus' political system is centred around one personality. The foundation of Iranian politics is a number of power centres openly competing against each other. Iran has a vibrant media market where multiple daily newspapers represent not only views of various fractions within the ruling elite but also views of the opposition. Finally, while Belarus has not had real elections since 1995, the outcome of Iranian elections is always uncertain and does depend on the voters' choice.
Scandalous news hit many media outlets this week in Germany: German police have been training their Belarusian counterparts for years. This raised many eyebrows because of the serious human rights violations perpetrated by Belarusian security services. In addition, the German media confuse words by calling the Belarusian security services "militia", which has a very negative connotation in German. The question remains whether Germany has trained Belarusian riot police units or ordinary policemen. Material support and on-site training for the Belarusian security services demonstrates that Germany as well as other EU member states are lacking a consistent approach towards Belarus.
This August is remarkable because of a number of new appointments of top officials in Belarus. The most notable changes include yesterday's appointment of the new head of the Presidential Administration Andrey Kabyakou, new foreign minister Uladzimir Makey and new presidential aide on economic affairs Piotr Prakapovich. These officials have significant powers to shape domestic and foreign policy of Belarus. While the reshuffle is likely to have a positive impact on economic decision-making, its effect on foreign relations is more difficult to predict. However, the reshuffle will hardly bring about a serious change to the government’s policies. All important decisions are made by the president.
Thanks to teddy bears, Belarus has the honour of making it into the infamous British tabloid press this month. The UK’s ubiquitous Daily Mail provides sensationalist coverage of the teddy bear episode and fall-out, and includes a thorough description of the Belarusian police state and detailed portrait of Europe’s last dictator. The article describes Belarus as “a sort of of Cold War theme park”, revealing Lukashenka’s plans for his younger son’s takeover and rubber-stamp parliament. Celebrating the teddy bear stunt, the article concludes: “If you cannot beat Europe's last dictator at the ballot box, you can at least dent his ego”. Closer to the action, NBC provide extensive coverage of the motivations and reflections of Studio Total, the Swedish PR agency who carried out the teddy bear drop. Chief Executive Per Cromwell tells NBC that the point of the action was to highlight “the absurdity of life under Lukashenko”.
On 12 August Polish hooligans attacked Belarusian journalists and activists in Warsaw. Although such incidents are rare, old stereotypes and prejudices often make life for Belarusians in Poland difficult. Such stereotypes also provoke anti-Belarusian acts of vandalism. Although Poland guarantees the Belarusian minority certain rights, in reality they face various obstacles to retain their identity. Problems with the Belarusian minority begin with simply determining their numbers. Official statistics estimates the minority at 47,000 people, but Belarusian activists think that the real number is a few times higher. The national census taken in 2011 arouses controversy over the real number of the Belarusian minority. In fact, it does not provide reliable data.
In about a month, Belarusians will vote in parliamentary elections. Although parliamentary elections have become a mere formality since the late 1990s, each time they arise the Belarusian opposition actively discusses whether it makes sense to participate in them. The Belarusian opposition has tried both options. The outcome was the same: massive falsification and no opposition presence in the parliament. Two years ago, the authorities changed the electoral legislation. For the first time, candidates will participate in short debates broadcast in state-owned media and are officially allowed to use more funds for their campaigns. Otherwise, the course of the campaign promises a deja-vu.
Two individuals arrested by the KGB in connection with the teddy bear stunt released in Belarus. Change.org - an international web site platform to sign petitions - blocked in Belarus. New initiatives for small small businesses, people with disabilities and human rights activists launched in Belarus. Two men accused of aiding teddy bear drop released by KGB. On August 17 KGB released journalist Anton Suriapin and real estate broker Sergey Basharimov on the conditions of proper conduct and travel ban. The two men remain to be formally accused of aiding an illegal border crossing of Belarus, until KGB has “full clarity regarding the circumstances of the investigated crime”.
As a result of the Belarus-Sweden diplomatic conflict, many media stated once again that Belarus is now “even more isolated” than it was before. Last Tuesday, the Belarusian ambassador to Berlin, Andrei Giro, was ordered to come to the German Foreign Ministry as a reaction to the diplomatic conflict between Belarus and Sweden. German authorities often criticise Belarus for disrespect of human rights. In return, the Belarusian president personally attacked the German foreign minister in March 2012 by saying "It is better to be a dictator than a gay". While on the high political level relations have been badly strained, particularly after the 2010 presidential elections, at grassroots level Belarus does not look so desperately isolated.
The 2012 university admissions campaign in Belarus has just finished and reflects a very interesting trend. However good Belarusian higher education is for engineers, physicists, and mathematicians, that does not seem to matter to young people anymore. They want to become programmers. That means representatives of almost the only profession that guarantees them independence and a decent living standard immediately after and even before graduation. A decade ago the cliche IT specialist image in Belarus included uncut hair, a worn-out sweater and other attributes of a modest bachelor's life. Now they form a distinct Belarusian - primarily Minsk - cohort with a label of successfulness and independence unparalleled in other sectors of the struggling Belarusian economy. To a large extent this happened due to the reasonable regulatory approach to the IT industry in Belarus.
July did not start very happily for Alexander Lukashenka. At the Independence Day speech on 4 July he praised the great political and economic situation of Belarus, but subsequent developments undermined both. The teddy bear affair and rejection of his visa application to attend the London Olympic Games are among the issues likely to have made Lukashenka embarrassed and frustrated, and sparked a new wave of enemy-searching. Financial troubles and the need to obtain more financial assistance from Moscow still remain the most burning problems. The recent diplomatic conflict with Sweden and, in consequence, tensions in relations with the EU, will isolate Belarus internationally even more and push it further into Moscow's arms.
On 30 July, BBC showed a controversial documentary about the 2011 terrorist attack in Minsk where 15 people died and over 200 were injured. It questioned the guilt of the two men convicted and subsequently executed for it. The film provoked a strong reaction from the International Criminal Police Organisation (Interpol). Interpol labelled the BBC documentary as based on "biased speculation". Back in 2011, Interpol publicly endorsed the preliminary results of the investigation which preceded the trial of two convicted young Belarusians. The international organisation was involved in the investigation and dispatched its experts to Minsk where it offered technical assistance. Now some in the Belarusian opposition criticise this international organisation for its failure to condemn the Belarusian regime. Interpol, however, insists that the official investigation was conducted professionally.
While Alexandr Lukashenka assures Belarusians of economic stability, other high-profile officials warn of foreseeable problems in the economy. The Government and National Bank sent a joint official letter to the Anti-Crisis Fund of the Eurasian Economic Community where they painted quite a gloomy picture. They say that the macroeconomic situation in the country can worsen as a result of a number of internal and external factors. In particular, they anticipate that the foreign exchange and gold reserves will shrink to a critical level. In reality, the situation might be even worse. As Belarus is facing a growing debt burden and several other economic risks, serious problems can arise already in 2013.
The Polish press most frequently reported on the teddy bear affair over the last weeks. The newspapers follow the actions undertaken by the Belarusian authorities aimed at the investigation and punishment of those related to it. Other issues covered include the September parliamentary elections, the opposition, the regime’s internal games and the consequences of the Belarusian economic crisis. The Teddy Bear issue was broadly covered by the Polish press. Polska The Times reports on the repercussions aimed at the officials responsible for the air zone security. Two generals Ihar Rachkouski and Dzmitry Pakhmielkin have already been dismissed for the alleged failure of their duties which resulted in the light aircraft entering Belarusian territory from which the individuals on the plane threw out the teddy bears over the country.