Among recent events related to the national security and defense two stand out. First, the deployment of the U.S. F-16 fighters in Poland and the need for the adequate response. Second, new evidence in the criminal investigation against the ex-commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Ihar Azarenka. Deployment of F-16s in Poland. Although the official explanation on this account was not provided by the parties, it became known that the relocation of a few dozen American jet fighter aircrafts F-16 to Poland from Italy is planned. In view of the fact that in the Polish Army the 48 planes of this type are in service, their total number will approach 90.
Dr. Hans-Georg Wieck agreed to give an interview to Belarus Digest on July 10, 2011. Wieck is a German diplomat with nearly fifty years of experience. In 1997-2001, Wieck headed the OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group in Minsk, and was denied entry visa upon completion of his term. Since 2004 Wieck chairs Human Rights in Belarus ("Menschenrechte in Weißrussland e.V."), an NGO involved in the investigation of the "disappearances" of oppositional figures in Belarus in 1999 and 2000. Its aim is "to support people and initiatives who get involved with the implementation of human rights, rule of law and democracy in Belarus". Wieck served as Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the Soviet Union in 1977-1980.
Yesterday Belarus security services detained over 100 participants of the "Revolution through Social Networks". Authorities undertake unprecedented measures to prevent the actions relying on men in plain clothes and transporting detainees in vehicles without any license plates. Many are severely beaten by the security service agents. The number of detainees and prisoners is clearly increasing. Respectively number of “silent protests” participants decreasing in comparison with previous weeks. The average person sentenced for ‘silent protests’ is a 22-24 year-old male. In total, across the country for all silent protests around 2000 people (roughly half of them in Minsk) were detained, including around 80 journalists. Belarus authorities block access to social networking web sites and conduct preventive arrests and "preventative talks" with the activists of the action.Those who repeatedly take part in protests face tougher punishment. For example, Ruslan Ustimenko from Gomel is now spending 30 days of administrative arrest in solitary confinement for participating in several "silent actions".
Last week Russian Minister of Finance Kudrin warned that Russia would reconsider any further loans if Belarus government continues to preserve multiplicity of exchange rates, restrict import and delay privatization. Over the last months all efforts of Belarus government focused on getting financial aid from Russia through the Eurasian Economic Community or the IMF. Unable to provide effective economic policy the government keeps applying for new loans, as it were the only solution to combat the deepening economic crisis. In the light of Kudrin's comments, even 3bn USD loan, approved by the Eurasian Economic Community in June, can be lost. While waiting for the decision from Eurasian Economic Community, Belarus also applied to the IMF for another loan. The government expected to receive 3.5-8bn USD from the IMF. But instead of granting the loan,the IMF merely issued a number of recommendations on how to overcome economic and financial crisis following a two weeks visit. According to IMF official statement, Belarus government can count on financial support only when it really proves the readiness for structural reforms. That means that the government should implement concrete measures, instead of merely preparing drafts reforms.
Over the last weeks scholars in Belarus focused primarily on the new forms of street protests, their potential and implications. The fresh public opinion polls demonstrate growing dissatisfaction of Belarusians with the economic crises and how the authorities cope with it. A recent paper also analyzed Poland's efforts to facilitate democratization of Belarus. The logic of non-violence. Belarusian social researcher Irina Solomatina considers that silent actions are a manifestation of a new type of community that does not fit into the framework of state ideology. An important cornerstone of the Belarusian official ideology is glorification of the Soviet vision of the Second World War, where Belarusians and Russians stood against aggression from the West. The authorities use various public rituals to entrench Soviet values of obedience and deliberately ignore massive repressions and economic stagnation which characterized the Soviet period.
During a recent press conferences, Belarusian TV propagandist Yury Prakopau asked Belarusian President a question: "Why Russia conducts unfair policy towards Belarus, and doesn't help it in the time of crisis, as the EU helps Greece?" Lukashenka answered: "Yury, don't provoke me. I have enough as it is. Everybody understands it anyway. We'll overcome it". After the presidential election of December 19 Lukashenka temporarily stopped the anti-Russian information campaign and accused the West of supporting a coup d'état in Belarus. During that period the main topic of Yury Prakopau's shows was devious intentions and actions of the West. Lukashenka simmered for a long time when Moscow was making demands to sell enterprises to Russian companies and make other steps towards genuine integration, as the Kremlin sees it. Now, Lukashenka "lets off the steam". Once again, an anti-Russian information campaign unfolds in Belarus.
The Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus recently applied for a stabilization loan from the International Monetary Fund. Prime-Minister Miasnikovich noted on 1 June 2011 that Belarus expected to receive USD 3.5 – 8 billion from the IMF. The Minister of Finance Andrei Kharkaviets stated the program had been scheduled for three years in general. The Belarusian authorities cherish quite well-grounded hopes to get the IMF credit in the long run. They believe the USA and the EU may become concerned about Lukashenka’s moves towards Russia and support the independence of Belarus. Some share this opinion.
Several months into the grave economic and social crisis the Belarusian opposition seems to be concerned only about two problems: how to achieve the release of political prisoners and how to keep their offices. The economic crisis, the impoverishment of the people and the cheap sale of the state property are largerly ignored. The opposition leaders do not use these issues to mobilize the population. Viktar Ivashkievich, veteran of the Belarusian opposition, proposed the first event on the crisis for as late as 16 October. Other politicians prefer to limit their activities on social problems to media comments. The post-election repressions proved effective: the oppositional politicians have become extremely cautious.
In his Independence Day speech today, Alyaksandr Lukashenka described "information intervention" as the main danger to independence of Belarus. According to him, external enemies of the country deploy the weapons of mass information to manipulate public opinion in Belarus. He has a peculiar understanding of independence. For Lukashenka, independence of Belarus means the same as his personal independence from other institutions and forces. At the military parade today, the authorities should have also demonstrated the modern tools which help them remain independent. At least three important things were missing - giant police trucks designed to transport detained protestors, plain-clothed security service agents who grab people in the streets and Internet warfare specialists, who block web sites and combat protesters on social networks. But these units were busy today fighting for independence of Belarus rulers from their people.
Under the impression of the revolutions in the Arab world and Greek protests against the austerity program of the government, Western media tend to jump to conclusions when writing about the current situation in Belarus. “Following the Arab example of regime change through social networks, thousands of people gathered in the Belarusian capital to protest against the authoritarian regime”, the German news channel NTV started its report on the protests that took place on Wednesday evening in Minsk and in several other Belarusian towns.
Over the last week Belarus authorities strengthened pressure on journalists and generally tried to limit the spread of uncensored information. Although the number of protesters remains relatively small, they are surprisingly persistent and attract more people in Minsk and elsewhere. Authorities began to rely more on plain-clothed agents for arrests and intimidation. Independent public opinion polls show that Belarusians are increasingly unhappy about the deterriorating economic situation and tend to blame authorities for the crisis. On the positive side, the Second Festival of Belarusian-language advertising and communication AD.NAK! took place in Minsk.
Two months of spiraling inflation have achieved what years of the KGB heavy-handedness could not. Few Belarusians stood up to protest the imprisonment of the opposition, the repression of the media, or the violation of gay rights, but now they are coming into the streets to protest the soaring prices and the absence of foreign currency. In June, a series of silent Internet-organized rallies rippled across Belarus. The first protest gathered only about 30 people, the next had ten times more; 500 people joined the protest in Minsk this Wednesday and the discontent is spreading to other Belarusian cities. The protesters carry no slogans and shout no mottoes, they simply clap their hands in unison. In the light of the “Arab spring”, it is tempting to see the silent protests as a sign that the authoritarian rule in Belarus is coming to a end. However, the Internet and the economic crisis are unlikely to bring change to Belarus.
While Russia is increasing its efforts to push Belarus in its geostrategic orbit even further, Europe appears to have taken the "wait and see approach". As a result, those who wish to see changes in Belarus are losing the momentum. Russia is pressing Belarus to obtain its most lucrative assets. The most profitable Belarusian state enterprise Belaruskali may end up in the hands of the Russian tycoon Kerimov. Russia intends to keep higher prices for energy supplies, undermining the main cornerstone of the Belarus "economic miracle" which was based on cheap Russian oil and gas. They also warned that if Belarus further restricts Russia's media outlets it would have difficulties with securing Russian loans in the future. Kremlin is in the process of getting nearly everything it wants.
The Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), a post-Soviet economic bloc led by Russia, agreed in May to extend a loan of USD 3 billion. According to the agreement, Belarus will receive the following funds: USD 1.24 billion in 2011, USD 800 million in 2012, and USD 1 billion in 2013. The first installment was received by Minsk last week. The provision of the loan does very little to end the economic crisis in Belarus. Alyaksandr Lukashenka himself stated in his interview on June 17, 2011 that dollars and and Euro would not appear in foreign currency exchange offices any time soon. Moreover, in 2011 Belarus will receive only an insignificant sum from the EurAsEC.